February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[runninthruda206]

Hoping to get more than a few inches in NE Seattle 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, runninthruda206 said:

Hoping to get more than a few inches in NE Seattle 

Eventually, you should. The weekend storm will be kinder to more northern areas slighted by Thursday’s event.

[SalemDuck]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

BLI peaked at 35 today and I believe the Euro had a forecast of 40 there last night. That's never a bad sign, of course 850mb temps are going to be the bigger determinant for us down here.

Spokane International same thing. Supposed to hit 30, only hit 25. Omak was supposed to be 28, only hit 25.

[Prairiedog]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

PDX goes from about 4 inches on the 12Z run to almost 2 feet on the 18Z run through just Saturday morning!

I would actually pay money to make this happen for the Portland folks! 

I'll take $10 and lets call it good.  I'm not asking for much. 

[Requiem]

The weekend storm looks potentially quite impactful, for most areas Salem north whether with ice or snow.

[Gummy]

3 minutes ago, runninthruda206 said:

Hoping to get more than a few inches in NE Seattle 

We are in good shape to get 3-5" assuming there isn't more model shifts. Unfortunately we are right on the edge so a N or S shift makes a huge diffetence.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

37 and crystal clear. Could really go for more days like today. 

[rabbitbarf]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Eventually, you should. The weekend storm will be kinder to more northern areas slighted by Thursday’s event.

I hope so! I want at least a few inches accumulated in Denny Triangle  

[wxmet]

1 minute ago, Prairiedog said:

I'll take $10 and lets call it good.  I'm not asking for much. 

Tim lives in a big house out in NoRth BeNd. Surely you can add a few more zeros.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, rabbitbarf said:

I hope so! I want at least a few inches accumulated in Denny Triangle  

Just for you, rabbitbarf

[Cloud]

Meanwhile, in the very short and a lot more believable range, it’s kind of a shame the models have completely wiped the Arctic front stuff tomorrow. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

31˚F.

[FroYoBro]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

31˚F.

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH 

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

Spokane International same thing. Supposed to hit 30, only hit 25. Omak was supposed to be 28, only hit 25.

Ironically, they should be a little warmer tomorrow.

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Meanwhile, in the very short and a lot more believable range, it’s kind of a shame the models have completely wiped the Arctic front stuff tomorrow. 

Seems to always be the case anymore. Sure we could actually manage an actual juicy Arctic front. Think that is a thing of the past. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Geez Louise.....I was caught up on everything this morning....that was at page 159.....I come back this afternoon to page 177........no way I am gonna be able to catch up so I just clicked on this 'ole ">>"

so....are Oregon and Bellingham/Whatcom County still in the screw zone?  

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Geez Louise.....I was caught up on everything this morning....that was at page 159.....I come back this afternoon to page 177........no way I am gonna be able to catch up so I just clicked on this 'ole ">>"

so....are Oregon and Bellingham/Whatcom County still in the screw zone?  

Yes. Basically Freds house and north is the screw zone. Not even a measly Arctic front snow up here, either. 

[Esquimalt]

Any update from the eps?

[Deweydog]

Could be our coldest night of the cold snap tonight.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Geez Louise.....I was caught up on everything this morning....that was at page 159.....I come back this afternoon to page 177........no way I am gonna be able to catch up so I just clicked on this 'ole ">>"

so....are Oregon and Bellingham/Whatcom County still in the screw zone?  

Screw zone for the first system, on Thursday? Yes.

For subsequent systems? Probably not.

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Could be our coldest night of the cold snap tonight.

I’m 100% missing the sarcasm but it’s the Thursday night supposed to be quite cold?

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Meanwhile, in the very short and a lot more believable range, it’s kind of a shame the models have completely wiped the Arctic front stuff tomorrow. 

Yeah... remember the model runs that showed the arctic air coming through the PNW and plunging into Mexico?   That was funny.

Those goofy, over-aggressive maps became this in reality....

[OysterPrintout]

 

[Winterdog]

12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Seems to always be the case anymore. Sure we could actually manage an actual juicy Arctic front. Think that is a thing of the past. 

That was what I was looking forward to the most.  Kind of sad.

[Jesse]

A very pretty 45/27 day here.

[tjb723]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... remember the model runs that showed the arctic air coming through the PNW and plunging into Mexico?   That was funny.

Those goofy, over-aggressive maps became this in reality....

All I can see is a face. A happy one at that.

[Jesse]

17 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Seems to always be the case anymore. Sure we could actually manage an actual juicy Arctic front. Think that is a thing of the past. 

They’re fading away just about as fast as midsummer drizzle and 90-less warm seasons!

#winsomeyoulosesome

 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

30 minutes ago, Bryant said:

Maybe you think that because you don't like what he said??

Maybe

 

[Esquimalt]

3 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

 

How does that compare to the 12z?

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Just heard the quickie weather report after traffic on 97.3 Kiro FM...”Spotty snow showers through the weekend that will not amount to much of anything” 

Could you imagine our group as the interface to the community!!!  
They would of fired or hung us long ago with all of our tide turns....LOL!   

[OysterPrintout]

1 minute ago, Esquimalt said:

How does that compare to the 12z?

 

I'd say little southern shift maybe a titch weaker overall trend.

[bainbridgekid]

Anyone with access to the Individual ensemble charts for snowfall - I'd love to see those for the 18z GFS. Looked like the mean shifted well South of the 12z though that had shifted well North of the 6z.

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... remember the model runs that showed the arctic air coming through the PNW and plunging into Mexico?   That was funny.

Those goofy, over-aggressive maps became this in reality....

That was like two weeks ago.

Or two days ago, same difference.

[Winterdog]

It would be nice to see the daily temp stack charts for the 18Z Euro.  If anyone has them.  I get the idea it is somewhat warmer than previous runs.  

[Blizzard777]

57 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

So if im reading it right, not much snow during Thursday Morning/day for my area and most of what falls will be evening/night.

Date night with the street lamp ️
Be sure to bring chocolates and special beverage 

[snow_wizard]

I feel a bit better seeing the EPS didn't change much with the second low.  The operational was pretty ugly on that.  Right now the first low looks good to go for snow in WA, and the first half of the precip from the second low.  The last half of the second low looks scary on the op.  The EPS mean still shows freezing temps Saturday night.

[Kolk1604]

6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Anyone with access to the Individual ensemble charts for snowfall - I'd love to see those for the 18z GFS. Looked like the mean shifted well South of the 12z though that had shifted well North of the 6z.

This? 

[Gradient Keeper]

52 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

So maybe it should be leaning more towards the GFS?

 

Blend of the GFS/EURO?

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Blend of the GFS/EURO?

I'll take it! 

[Requiem]

Questions regarding PDX— does that second low have the potential to cause a rather nasty ice storm? We’ve seen that on several models, even ones less gung-ho with the first low.