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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

BLI snowman

By BLI snowman
in West of the Rockies

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Posted by Bryant,

Let's see these 00z models shift north
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SeanNyberg Rising Star

SeanNyberg

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Here's the 6+ inches and 12+ inches maps for good measure.

2021-02-09 17_20_48-Window.png

2021-02-09 17_21_33-Window.png

It appears these all have decreased the odds going into 18z compared to 12z. I know we are all different areas, but the high odds appear to shrink compared to 12z. Am I drunk? 

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Sean Nyberg

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Meatyorologist
Meatyorologist

I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

SouthHillFrosty
SouthHillFrosty

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Jbolin
Jbolin

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, iFred said:

Oregon weenies, Seattle local media and Sandpoint going with "not that big of a deal north of Tacoma". Maybe the're on to something.

Any update on the Comcast issue?

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

I love how divided this forum is lol

I wouldn't mind if BLI got hammered. If I'm going to miss out it's less painful if its not by 5-10 miles. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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jakerepp Mentor

jakerepp

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

I love how divided this forum is lol

To be honest, even if we made groups for individual counties, there would still be some wild differences in opinion!
 

I’d hate to be pitted against Randy!

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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bainbridgekid Veteran

bainbridgekid

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Hey, we should all move to the same location so we are united during these trying times! Pick a good spot that gets snow and start building our community. 

How much property you got @TT-SEA?

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I’m 100% missing the sarcasm but it’s the Thursday night supposed to be quite cold?

Assuming things stay clear, many folks here in the metro should get into the mid 20’s.  I don’t see us getting that cold heading toward the weekend.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Assuming things stay clear, many folks here in the metro should get into the mid 20’s.  I don’t see us getting that cold heading toward the weekend.  

Mark “warm bias” Nelsen has double 25s Saturday and Sunday. Hard for me to imagine the outflow getting that cold.

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, iFred said:

Oregon weenies, Seattle local media and Sandpoint going with "not that big of a deal north of Tacoma". Maybe the're on to something.

Not sure what models they are looking at.  Very high bust potential with that statement.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Mark “warm bias” Nelsen has double 25s Saturday and Sunday. Hard for me to imagine the outflow getting that cold.

Evap cooling.  I think it's very doable.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Mark “warm bias” Nelsen has double 25s Saturday and Sunday. Hard for me to imagine the outflow getting that cold.

Maybe near the immediate gorge spots, but I’d guess the majority of the metro bottoms out in the upper 20’s. I’m assuming there’s still a GFS blend in a lot of forecasts but just like 13 months ago, the wisest move is to cut that cord.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Skagit Weather Veteran

Skagit Weather

Posted
Posted

37/28 day today and it's already below freezing. I love these days when pretty quickly after sunset the temperature is below freezing. I made sure to reinstall some of my Christmas lights that had fallen down with the windstorms in January and they're back on. Time now to see if the 00z NAM still gives a skiff of snow up here tomorrow.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

37/28 day today and it's already below freezing. I love these days when pretty quickly after sunset the temperature is below freezing. I made sure to reinstall some of my Christmas lights that had fallen down with the windstorms in January and they're back on. Time now to see if the 00z NAM still gives a skiff of snow up here tomorrow.

Fingers crossed for a good last minute northward jump! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

FWIW the parallel GFS (yes it's running again) is much colder with the second low.  Reasonably far south but still decent snow for the Central and South Sound.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

Does the extended HRRR have a big warm bias cause good lord this would be a non event for everyone?

image.thumb.png.9eab8d4c050a9ccb82445fed8b3b7356.png

Obvious outlier.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

We'll have to wait and see on low number two.  The first one seems to be pretty well set now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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jakerepp Mentor

jakerepp

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Not enough snow. Leavenworth is a better option.

My in laws have 10 acres, and a friend has the adjacent 10 acres up past Crystal Springs Sno-Park.

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

The extended HRRR has a being bad at everything bias

Isn't it usually used for precip? My guess is it just drifts toward climo for temperature output the farther out you get in the long range. Which for this particular model appears to be the 44-46 hour range.

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