February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Out to 24 hrs on the ECMWF 18z,  The upper level low in the Pacific is slightly north of 12z and the B.C. trough is hanging back just a little.

Maybe you are seeing what you want to see??

[paulb/eugene]

To my eye the Euro 18z looks to track the low just a bit N given the slightly higher 500mb heights offshore

[wxmet]

Just now, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Maybe you are seeing what you want to see??

No. I use the comparator on weathermodels.com to compare the two runs at the same time interval. 

[paulb/eugene]

1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said:

To my eye the Euro 18z looks to track the low just a bit N given the slightly higher 500mb heights offshore

Looks like direction Long Beach WA

[Andrew M]

Latest thoughts from Mark Nelsen for Thursday into Friday morning for Portland.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, paulb/eugene said:

Looks like direction Long Beach WA

Yikes. That's going to be pretty borderline south of Chehalis. 

[seattleweatherguy]

38 minutes ago, wxmet said:

They definitely could have extended those WSW through the Seattle metro

Wonder what the ecwf will show for my area on Thurs and then the weekend?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

21 minutes ago, Andrew M said:

Mark Nelsens latest thoughts for Portland, confidence increasing for major snow/ice event for the metro area.

https://fb.watch/3yRGLfMvPz/

 

Go Mark Go!

[wxmet]

By 48hrs the upper low is a little further south but the B.C. trough is hanging back a bit compared to 12z.

[BLI snowman]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yikes. That's going to be pretty borderline south of Chehalis. 

Very unlikely that most of SW WA sees anything at this point. I wish the screw zone stopped at my door but alas it will also extend much further north to include our Cowlitz and Lewis County brethren. God speed weenies.

[SalemDuck]

23 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Omak sitting at 23/-1.  Not great, but also not bad...

Euro had them at 28 today.

[paulb/eugene]

Actually headed to Newport OR

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

By Thursday morning... Looks a bit south. PDXers can breathe.

That doesn’t look like a Long Beach landfall but I’d like to see the next couple frames to be sure. 

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, wxmet said:

By 48hrs the upper low is a little further south but the B.C. trough is hanging back a bit compared to 12z.

What are the implications of the trough hanging back? Just delays allowing more cold air to filter down or it’ll be something more “bad”?

[wxmet]

Totals lower across the board 2 in. in Seattle by very early Friday morning

 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Very unlikely that most of SW WA sees anything at this point. I wish the screw zone stopped at my door but alas it will also extend much further north to include our Cowlitz and Lewis County brethren. God speed weenies.

Justin’s gone full on fall 2008!

#december2remember

[RentonHill]

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, paulb/eugene said:

Actually headed to Newport OR

$ for PDX. HUGE potential for a major Winter Storm.

[paulb/eugene]

[TT-SEA]

Southward shift!

[wxmet]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

What are the implications of the trough hanging back? Just delays allowing more cold air to filter down or it’ll be something more “bad”?

Yes. That would be more of a problem for PDX and areas south.

[paulb/eugene]

!!

[GobBluth]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

By Thursday afternoon...

Still rain for Portland - despite the landfall it's still pushing a decent SW breeze. Or the Euro off on its own with warmer temps.

[RentonHill]

[TT-SEA]

Actually more like general shrinkage and not as much a southward shift.

[wxmet]

Totals early Friday afternoon

 

[RentonHill]

saturday system coming in hot

[Cloud]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Actually more like general shrinkage and not a southward shift.

My thought as well. Less oomf imo. 

[MossMan]

Just now, wxmet said:

Totals early Friday afternoon

 

Horrible...Dump it. 

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Justin’s gone full on fall 2008!

#december2remember

Pull out of the market quick!

[jcmcgaffey]

22 minutes ago, runninthruda206 said:

I’m in the Ravenna area. I know your pain. 2019 was still amazing though. At least for our standards. 

Ya 2019 was amazing and to be honest was as close as we get to being close to what places tend to get north and south of us.  We are generally a shadowed location compared to nearly everywhere else in the Puget sound so it makes sense. 

[seattleweatherguy]

still shows 2 to 3 inches for bothell by fri morning should we get a WSW? 

[GobBluth]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

And total snow through that same time...

weaker low coming in more suppressed probably gives Portland a snowy Friday.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Temp 33˚F, DP 16˚F. A bit brisk, but bright sun and overall a great afternoon for a bike ride. Conditions remind me of a sunny winter day in the Rockies. City and county are busy spraying the streets and roads with deicer in anticipation of winter precip.

26/35 for the day.

[wxmet]

Totals by late Friday evening. Snow increasing north as the next system comes in.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

I’m still liking my odds Thursday/Friday for some decent snow...I’d be happy with 3 inches or 8 inches. 

[MossMan]

Just now, seattleweatherguy said:

still shows 2 to 3 inches for bothell by fri morning should we get a WSW? 

Perhaps a wimpy WWA. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

saturday system coming in hot

Going to become a Friday evening system instead.

[SalemDuck]

Euro isn't handling the low level cold well imo. I'd take my chances with the track it's offering 

[Requiem]

Just glad things didn’t go even further north lol, it’ll be different next run I’m sure.