February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Esquimalt]

Stays impressively cold with this one 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Mossman only has ten!! hahahaha

[Requiem]

Just the 18Z but nice to have a model throw us a bone. Let's hope for little southward shifts.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

D*mn... The kuchera map by Saturday night is pretty freaking nice for most.

That would be some 1950 or 1969 sh*t here. Would have to get up on the roof and shovel snow off so it didn’t collapse. 

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Snow line pushing south to northern Lane County. lol

Now that’s regional...I’m okay with that! 

[paulb/eugene]

getting Juked by the JukeFS

[awright-31]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

D*mn... The kuchera map by Saturday night is pretty freaking nice for most.

I cannot believe that the GFS continues to put down nearly 3 feet of snow from Tacoma to Portland. I know it’ll never verify, but this would be debilitating.

[Deweydog]

This is like tracking GameStop.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This seems like a LOT of precip for what we are working with...

[TacomaWaWx]

What’s crazy is these snow maps are within 100 hours. Jesus Christ. 

[Kolk1604]

1 am sunday and still snowing. Temps also still in the 20s. Lets keep this southernly track going for next monday too! 

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, Timmy said:

i was almost hoping the 18z would continue the north trend so i could get some work done and not have my wife asking why i am glued to my phone.  but now i have another 8 hours of this at least.

Ive been toying with the idea of taking a 24 hour break from the models and seeing how things look tomorrow evening. I doubt I have the will power though.

[RentonHill]

GEFS seems slightly further south with snow totals through hr60

[Kolk1604]

Just now, Jesse said:

Ive been toying with the idea of taking a 24 hour break from the models and seeing how things look tomorrow evening. I doubt I have the will power though.

Kinda sounds like my mom when she's watching sports. If I don't watch, they'll play better. 

[Christensen87]

Incredible historic snowstorm potential. Wow. Time for a WSW. Hope tonight's runs stay the course. 

[snow drift]

I see this being ambiguous up until the event happens or starts happening. It's sort of a Pat from SNL event.

[awright-31]

Winter Storm Watch! There it is.

[snow_wizard]

Lovin me some 18z GFS!  The second storm is a bit south.  Great outcome for many.

[mtep]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Ive been toying with the idea of taking a 24 hour break from the models and seeing how things look tomorrow evening. I doubt I have the will power though.

Same here but it won't happen

[RentonHill]

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Kinda sounds like my mom when she's watching sports. If I don't watch, they'll play better. 

I am honored to sound like your mom. 

[Timmy Supercell]

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

D*mn... The kuchera map by Saturday night is pretty freaking nice for most.

Has Wilsonville ever had a foot+ snowfall? I should text my brother lol

[SalemDuck]

18z Fully Drunk

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I’m feeling really good about my location at this point. Seems to be a really good place to be not too far north not too far south. 

Yeah you're in a great spot. That's the nice thing about the South Sound in that they can usually do well with a variety of setups.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

---

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
207 PM PST Tue Feb 9 2021

WAZ504-509-511-512-569-101200-
/O.NEW.KSEW.WS.A.0003.210211T1800Z-210212T1800Z/
Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-Hood Canal Area-
Lower Chehalis Valley Area-Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-
including Lacey, Olympia, Tumwater, Yelm, Grand Mound, Rochester,
Centralia, Toledo, Tacoma, Fife, DuPont, Puyallup, Shelton,
Seabeck, Belfair, Brinnon, Montesano, Elma, McCleary, Morton,
Ashford, Packwood, Randle, Paradise, and Longmire
207 PM PST Tue Feb 9 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 8
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Southwest Interior, Hood Canal Area, Lower Chehalis
  Valley Area, Tacoma Area, and the Cascades of Pierce and Lewis
  Counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to develop by late
  Thursday morning and continue into Friday morning. The heaviest
  period of snow is expected to be Thursday evening.

[Fircrest]

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like some heavy snow for Saturday morning.

Love the weekend timing! Will actually get to go out and enjoy it instead of being on a week day.

Yeah, looks really good.  I'm actually taking Friday off to make it a 4 day weekend. I think the Tacoma area should do well with the upcoming snowstorm.  My wife already stocked up on food last night. So let it snow!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

PDX goes from about 4 inches on the 12Z run to almost 2 feet on the 18Z run through just Saturday morning!

I would actually pay money to make this happen for the Portland folks! 

I have been saving links to some of Requiem’s weenie posts just to repost in case that happens.

[TT-SEA]

My son is in heaven at Snoqualmie Summit today...

[Deweydog]

Ugh.  Just flurries around on Sunday.  Those February sun angles are gonna eat up those last two and half feet or so of leftovers.

[awright-31]

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
207 PM PST Tue Feb 9 2021

WAZ504-509-511-512-569-101200-
/O.NEW.KSEW.WS.A.0003.210211T1800Z-210212T1800Z/
Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-Hood Canal Area-
Lower Chehalis Valley Area-Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-
including Lacey, Olympia, Tumwater, Yelm, Grand Mound, Rochester,
Centralia, Toledo, Tacoma, Fife, DuPont, Puyallup, Shelton,
Seabeck, Belfair, Brinnon, Montesano, Elma, McCleary, Morton,
Ashford, Packwood, Randle, Paradise, and Longmire
207 PM PST Tue Feb 9 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 8
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Southwest Interior, Hood Canal Area, Lower Chehalis
  Valley Area, Tacoma Area, and the Cascades of Pierce and Lewis
  Counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to develop by late
  Thursday morning and continue into Friday morning. The heaviest
  period of snow is expected to be Thursday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

[GHweatherChris]

Cliff Mass is on board and the NWS issues the kiss of death, they should have waited until 1 AM Thursday at the earliest. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Oh sh*t here we go

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

1 am sunday and still snowing. Temps also still in the 20s. Lets keep this southernly track going for next monday too! 

Even though I'm in a slight screw hole there is still at least 8 inches!

[Fircrest]

10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I’m feeling really good about my location at this point. Seems to be a really good place to be not too far north not too far south. 

I totally agree.  But there is always a bit of doubt in the back of my mind...been burned too many times!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, SalemDuck said:

18z Fully Drunk

So according to this run, SLE gets 1.13" of ZR, 2.1" of sleet, and 3.6" of snow. LOL

Looks like we are cursed with about 1"+ of ZR up here, but avoid most of the sleet and then 6-8" of snow. Good thing we have the generator. 

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

PDX goes from about 4 inches on the 12Z run to almost 2 feet on the 18Z run through just Saturday morning!

I would actually pay money to make this happen for the Portland folks! 

I would give up sleep for a week.

Oh wait, I already have!

[Poulsbo Snowman]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My son is in heaven at Snoqualmie Summit today...

Incredible.

[MWG]

42 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I know both storms that Jan were multi decadal events. Medford broke a 24 hour snowfall record I believe in ours.

I

I know we may never see another event like this. 

[Cloud]

This is the ideal run right here. We’ll take the 20” or so and PDX can have its 30”  

D**n goofus.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Has Wilsonville ever had a foot+ snowfall? I should text my brother lol

The screw hole here kind of goes away with that.  Probably higher ratio snow due to cold east winds.