February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I see Seattle  @ 8-10 at the end of this. Most of the models show them scoring. 

I’m still liking my forecast I made last night for 7” through the whole event. Hopefully that’s ends up being too low! 

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah RGEM is another deal breaker for Portland. 18z Euro will drop the hammer on the coffin nail shortly.

Pretty gnarly ice storm there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That 40 at Hermiston is sure impressive. 

[Khoine]

Models stink no pilot reports.  Ignore any model beyond 24 hours.  I should get 1 - 2 inches by Tuesday maybe

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, wxmet said:

They definitely could have extended those WSW through the Seattle metro

Yeah not that it matters but pretty strange. 

[paulb/eugene]

Here comes the Euro

[Perturbed Member]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah RGEM is another deal breaker for Portland. 18z Euro will drop the hammer on the coffin nail shortly.

We always have the GRAF and its cold air advection that surpasses even the GFS

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I was just going off of Tacoma’s post! Though many maps show me in various shades of grey...Unacceptable!!! 

Yeah looks good to me. I know the GFS wasn't took kind from about Seattle north.

I think we'll see a blend of both models and make everyone happy. 

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I was just going off of Tacoma’s post! Though many maps show me in various shades of grey...Unacceptable!!! 

North of Seattle will probably score Saturday is my bet. I don’t think anyone in western WA is going to totally get skunked. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, nwsnow said:

We always have the GRAF and its cold air advection that surpasses even the GFS

The Portland NWS secret weapon. I have heard Mark Nelsen actually really thinks highly of this model. This is so obviously overdone it is ridiculous. 

[Perturbed Member]

18z RGEM is sending the 2nd low straight north to Alaska

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The Portland NWS secret weapon. I have heard Mark Nelsen actually really thinks highly of this model. This is so obviously overdone it is ridiculous. 

The GRAF is pretty new and it looks really modern and interesting on paper but I haven't looked at it much before. I think this would be the first real event Mark gets to use it on. 

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The Portland NWS secret weapon. I have heard Mark Nelsen actually really thinks highly of this model. This is so obviously overdone it is ridiculous. 

Yeah I believe Nelsen has said this model has had very high accuracy scores in the past. Not sure if that extends to winter weather.

[Front Ranger]

38 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Chehalis-Centralia area did end up close to 20" with that.

Yeah, I remember Chehalis to OLM was the big winner.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Going to be fun to do a post mortem on this NWS point forecast for my location. LOL. I cannot believe they included the Lane County Foothills in a WSW calling for 10-15" of snow. 

Thursday

Rain before 1pm, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow. Snow level 3000 feet lowering to 1600 feet in the afternoon . High near 36. Southeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Thursday Night

Snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain, becoming all snow after 4am. Low around 25. Northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Friday

Snow showers likely before 7am, then snow showers likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain between 7am and 10am, then snow showers likely after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday Night

Snow showers likely, mainly after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Saturday

Snow likely, mainly before 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31.

Saturday Night

A chance of snow before 10pm, then a chance of snow showers after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24.

Sunday

A chance of snow showers before 4pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

We always have the GRAF and its cold air advection that surpasses even the GFS

Can't see a zoomed out view but snow looks concentrated from Salem to Chehalis at least through Friday morning.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

18z RGEM is sending the 2nd low straight north to Alaska

 

My friend in Sitka is praying for a bit more of a north trend but specified that he really hopes we still do well, too.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cliff mass is on board with a helmet and a 4 point harness.

[Deweydog]

Omak sitting at 23/-1.  Not great, but also not bad...

[wxmet]

NWS point forecast has 3.5in here in West Seattle before Friday evening but no WSW.

[Andrew M]

Mark Nelsens latest thoughts for Portland, confidence increasing for major snow/ice event for the metro area.

https://fb.watch/3yRGLfMvPz/

 

[Gradient Keeper]

I just got home and looked at the 18z. Wow. Here is my analysis. How drunk was our favorite Uncle this time? It all depends on how quickly the east winds and cold air pours out of the Gorge into PDX metro. More moisture on this run too. Looking at 925s temps cool 4-7 AM Thursday and reach that critical -2c around 8-9 AM. East wind develops slightly slower around 11 PM Wednesday - 1 AM Thursday. It's hard to not get super excited at the 5 Day Snow totals of 31.1" for PDX. Wouldn't that be something? 18z GEFS 850mb mean temp for Thursday 1-7 PM as moisture comes into play was -1c to -3c cooling as the evening progresses.

 

This was was colder than 12z which was around -0.4c to -1.8c. That is very key in terms of whether or not the column from 4000' to the surface would support snow. The mean temp overall for Portland was also cold dipping to -4.9c Friday compared to 12z -3.4c. That also means we have a bit colder air mass aloft going into the big Saturday storm. The Dalles was also colder at -16.9c compared to 12z at -15c. This would give more support to a deeper cold layer over PDX. Looking at surface temps the 18z GEFS shows temps fall below freezing at PDX after 4-6 AM Thursday with temps sufficiently cold (18-30 F) for snow through 2-4 PM Sunday.

 

This was also colder than 12z GEFS which was round 20-30 F through the same time frame Sunday. Adjusting for any cold biases from the GFS Op/GEFS we would be looking for temps to fall below freezing I am thinking 3-4 PM with high temps occurring earlier in the day. As with previous analysis it will come down to how quickly the east wind develops and cold air from the Gorge spills westward into PDX. It does seem the *potential* exists for a high-impact Winter Storm for PDX Metro, Northern Willamette Valley, and Southwest Washington. Root for that low to continue to dive south of us! C'MON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Omak sitting at 23/-1.  Not great, but also not bad...

Heading there tonight. Did you live in Pateras? I can never remember.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

You guys are hilarious.  I was gone for a few hours and some of the comments are insane.  You spend so much time looking at the computer screen you forget that we can look at stuff real time, and base some forecasts off of it.

That low will be suppressed, I have no doubt in my mind.  Snow for all points in the valley about Salem north or so, from how I see it.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, wxmet said:

NWS point forecast has 3.5in here in West Seattle before Friday evening but no WSW.

It's actually quite apparent to me base on the watches and statements put out by the NWS in Seattle and Portland that a lot of their decisions weighs heavily on the GFS even though it's still waffling quite a bit. 

I feel like the Euro has been a more rock solid model last few days. This comment is also base off of the last windstorm we have here where they didn't put out watches and warnings until the nightly GFS came in with wind solutions even though the Euro was steadfast in its call 24-36 hours prior. 

It's not to say they don't take the Euro into account for these type of scenarios, they want to see better agreements on the models before making decisions. The last thing they want to do is to rely on a single model and would be devastating if it busts. 

My prediction is that after tonight's runs, they will expand for the Greater Seattle area if the GFS holds... they won't even wait for the Euro to come out. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, wxmet said:

NWS point forecast has 3.5in here in West Seattle before Friday evening but no WSW.

As shown earlier our point forecast has 8-17" of snow through Friday evening. I think you have a better chance of seeing that, in fact I think you actually have a chance of seeing that. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

You guys are hilarious.  I was gone for a few hours and some of the comments are insane.  You spend so much time looking at the computer screen you forget that we can look at stuff real time, and base some forecasts off of it.

That low will be suppressed, I have no doubt in my mind.  Snow for all points in the valley about Salem north or so, from how I see it.

If this forecast verifies I will drive over to Culver after this event is over and we can meet up at the Weather Messiah's house and split a bottle of the finest whiskey. 

[jcmcgaffey]

1 hour ago, iFred said:

Ugh, I see this either being epic for us Everett area folks or being a let down. On one hand, as we have seen with a variety of storms, the low trends a touch north, the moisture makes it up the I5 corridor, and we over preform, excluding any CZ action. In addition, we hold onto the cold longer and have a shot of something through Monday.

On the other hand, this system remains suppressed, moisture gets eaten up by outflow. Then with no serious outflow support, we warm up with the rest of the Sound but without much snow as we remained shadowed or too far North for the CZ. I guess karma for 2019 and my "worst weather forum admin weenie takes since Kevin Martin" takes.

Weenie reacts only.

I’m there with ya.  Being in north seattle I was just south of the epic stuff from 2019 and just south enough for last year and look to be just north of the epic stuff this year:(

trend north!

[Randyc321]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Cliff mass is on board with a helmet and a 4 point harness.

Yep he seems almost all in for pure epicness.  Awesome

[runninthruda206]

2 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

I’m there with ya.  Being in north seattle I was just south of the epic stuff from 2019 and just south enough for last year and look to be just north of the epic stuff this year:(

trend north!

I’m in the Ravenna area. I know your pain. 2019 was still amazing though. At least for our standards. 

[Front Ranger]

58 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Canadian 18z holding steady if not bit N

Is that actually a thing?

[Cloud]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

18z Euro starting to roll out now.

WHERE WILL IT GO? NORTH? SOUTH? BAJA? SITKA?

It goes off base so much that it jumped all the way to the atlantic and become a potent nor'easter for Phil. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If this forecast verifies I will drive over to Culver after this event is over and we can meet up at the Weather Messiah's house and split a bottle of the finest whiskey. 

I just don't see why it wouldn't.  I have seen more precarious setups deliver for the valley.  If those winds are cranking @ 50 mph in troutdale then game on.  And as far as the offer?  Deal!!!

[wxmet]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Is that actually a thing?

That's what the RGEM is

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z Euro starting to roll out now.

WHERE WILL IT GO? NORTH? SOUTH? BAJA? SITKA?

I'd say about 50 miles south of the 12z.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I just don't see why it wouldn't.  I have seen more precarious setups deliver for the valley.  If those winds are cranking @ 50 mph in troutdale then game on.  And as far as the offer?  Deal!!!

Your looking pretty good for some nice winter weather this week/weekend. 

[Perturbed Member]

Do it 18z euro, make it quick and painless....

[wxmet]

Out to 24 hrs on the ECMWF 18z,  The upper level low in the Pacific is slightly north of 12z and the B.C. trough is hanging back just a little.

[Esquimalt]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'd say about 50 miles south of the 12z.

I’ll say 30 miles north 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Your looking pretty good for some nice winter weather this week/weekend. 

I know, and my brother, High Desert Mat, keeps texting me that the sky is falling :).  The main thing is getting that boundary to set up in the ideal spot.  

 

I do love how Friday is looking for the deformation, and then the new storm coming in late Saturday, maybe Sunday.  If it warms up after that I am fine.