February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Deweydog]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Sure, not to mention March 2012 and even some of the weak stuff that we had in 2012-13.

It's not really about "winning" so much as it's about being left with so little while so much is going on a relatively short distance away. It'd be different if we had a couple more 2-3" events to show for the last few years. My snowiest event since 2018 was in fact last Pi Day! A fairly unusual stretch of ineptitude in the midst of other places seeing some really big totals.

Eh, I think that’s a glass half empty take but I get it.

February was really the only true knife-twister, IMO. This, like January 2020, was on life support from the start.  The Pacific way more often than not needs to do its part.

[Requiem]

The real question is whether it's too late for PDX even to get some wintry precip.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

But wasn’t there supposed to be onshore flow all the way through Wednesday? Not that it matters much but just out of curiosity it won’t really matter until Thursday. 

SEA has a west wind right now...normal fluctuations.    The main point was that the big change does not occur until late tomorrow evening.   And it will primarily be a switch to east.    We don't really have an arctic front any longer.

[Kolk1604]

Looking ahead to Monday. @SouthHillFrosty didn't you mention something about it if it went further south?

The 12z Euro on Saturday had this. It went further south and brought down more cold air. Hmmm

[Winterdog]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wait. Will trend north.

Yeah, I'm not worried, after all it's only the NAM.

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I wasn't extensively watching models in Feb 2019, what exactly screwed PDX out of that? Continuous shots at good snow and regionally that month was amazing.

Did okay with a light deformation zone with that initial arctic surge. Then with the 2nd storm, a very shallow layer of deep gorge outflow produced a nice event from I-205 east but the westside dried out immediately after that support arrived. The 3rd storm shot way north and gave us southerlies and rain.

Then the late month stuff that buried you missed us to the south, with an extremely pathetic northern precip shield that barely produced flurries. Otherwise it was just chilly that month with foothill snow levels.

Got screwed in an impressive variety of ways that month...

[Cloud]

Owner of SWB puts out his prediction for SEA.

2-4” Thur/Fri

4-6” Sat

More Monday.

Sounds reasonable. Not really holding back. 

[jakerepp]

3 minutes ago, Requiem said:

The real question is whether it's too late for PDX even to get some wintry precip.

I'm just now realizing how insane 1/10/17 was, from your signature. 

18.5'' in a single day? That's insanity. 

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Owner of SWB puts out his prediction for SEA.

2-4” Thur/Fri

4-6” Sat

More Monday.

Sounds reasonable. Not really holding back. 

I like whoever runs that account. They get really excited about all types of weather here, and usually know what they are talking about.

[Omegaraptor]

EPS still looks great. I'm not giving up hope yet.

[Deweydog]

Unfortunately, amidst the horror it’s one of the nicest days this year. If you don’t stand still too long in the sun you could reasonably convince yourself it’s a crisp mid winter day.

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Eh, I think that’s a glass half empty take but I get it.

February was really the only true knife-twister, IMO. This, like January 2020, was on life support from the start.  The Pacific way more often than not needs to do its part.

True, but it's also fairly unusual to see such latitude driven events in back to back years like this. I guess 1996-97 and 1997-98, but we were at least just barely on the right side of the 1998 one.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

I like whoever runs that account. They get really excited about all types of weather here, and usually know what they are talking about.

He really does, truly passionate about the weather here. 

[Deweydog]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

EPS still looks great. I'm not giving up hope yet.

JSYK... We’re getting into a dangerous range to be putting much stock in ensemble blends.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Did okay with a light deformation zone with that initial arctic surge. Then with the 2nd storm, a very shallow layer of deep gorge outflow produced a nice event from I-205 east but the westside dried out immediately after that support arrived. The 3rd storm shot way north and gave us southerlies and rain.

Then the late month stuff that buried you missed us to the south, with an extremely pathetic northern precip shield that barely produced flurries. Otherwise it was just chilly that month with foothill snow levels.

Got screwed in an impressive variety of ways that month...

The whole entire month snowed here and in central Oregon. It never got too deep locally (9.5") as it kept melting and accumulating but Deschutes county had like 2-3' feet of powder.

02/04/2019 - 1.50"
02/05/2019 - 1.00"
02/06/2019 - T"
02/08/2019 - T"
02/09/2019 - 3.80"
02/10/2019 - T"
02/12/2019 - 2.00"
02/13/2019 - 3.20"
02/14/2019 - 1.00"
02/15/2019 - T"
02/16/2019 - 2.75"
02/17/2019 - T"
02/20/2019 - 2.25"
02/23/2019 - T"
02/24/2019 - T"
02/25/2019 - 3.00"
02/26/2019 - 4.80"
02/27/2019 - 2.20"
Total - 27.5" 

Another reputable station in town recorded 33.4". 

[Randyc321]

WRF    Snow starts on Kitsap Pen around 1 pm Thurs.

[Kolk1604]

Hey Rob EPS still looks good for you

[Deweydog]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

True, but it's also fairly unusual to see such latitude driven events in back to back years like this. I guess 1996-97 and 1997-98, but we were at least just barely on the right side of the 1998 one.

I suppose, but in the grand scheme it seems like just kind of an interesting footnote.  January 2020 was pretty localized and in the end, this one may end up similar.  Definite differences between the two, but the similarities seem to be driving what may be a comparable outcome.

[Perturbed Member]

Well I think that's a wrap for PDX. Fully expect the 00z suite to finish us off by shifting a bit further north. 

My model riding to snow total ratio has been really sad since 2017. At some point I gotta think about moving to a real climate to preserve sanity.

 

[Kolk1604]

Hey the Parallel GFS is back. Through Sunday 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Definitely will be a switch to the north first, not east. Relatively strong Fraser outflow develops by Thursday morning and goes down the Sound. 

We might not have a bonafide arctic front anymore but there will still be north winds if the Euro is right. 

Good to know... I was looking past the early part of Thursday. 

[Requiem]

9 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

I'm just now realizing how insane 1/10/17 was, from your signature. 

18.5'' in a single day? That's insanity. 

Definitely was a cool storm but I'm sure it pales in comparison to the February 2019 storms up there.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Icon pretty close to it's 12z, a bit north. 

[paulb/eugene]

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

Well I think that's a wrap for PDX. Fully expect the 00z suite to finish us off by shifting a bit further north. 

My model riding to snow total ratio has been really sad since 2017. At some point I gotta think about moving to a real climate to preserve sanity.

 

I don’t understand why the towel is being waved. The EPS mean still looks very decent for PDX.

[Esquimalt]

RGEM decent leap north 

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

I suppose, but in the grand scheme it seems like just kind of an interesting footnote.  January 2020 was pretty localized and in the end, this one may end up similar.  Definite differences between the two, but the similarities seem to be driving what may be a comparable outcome.

I think it's pretty safe to say that things will have more than evened out going into next winter, assuming the rest of this year produces fairly typical late winter conditions. Unfortunately we're still going to be due for our decadal regional Nino turd soon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

I have never been more desperate for spring to arrive. I am hoping it is damp and extends into early summer. 

[Deweydog]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

I think it's pretty safe to say that things will have more than evened out going into next winter, assuming the rest of this year produces fairly typical late winter conditions. Unfortunately we're still going to be due for our decadal regional Nino turd soon.

December.

Unfortunately, our 40 degree streak looks like it’s gonna be toast.  Kinda sad in a sadistic way.

[Hawksfan2008]

How much more does NWS need to see before they let Western Washington know what’s about to happen. I mentioned it to people at work and they have no clue. 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Definitely was a cool storm but I'm sure it pales in comparison to the February 2019 storms up there.

It doesn’t.

[Perturbed Member]

Just now, Cloud said:

I don’t understand why the towel is being waved. The EPS mean still looks very decent for PDX.

The raw snow numbers might look good but PDX was always on the very southern edge of the snow and the trends on many models now is to push that low further north. The mid and upper levels were already marginal to begin with. I see no reason why that north trend will reverse now. Looking like a ZR/sleet or even rain event here. Obviously the low coming in even a bit south could make it all snow here but that seems pretty doubtful now. 

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I don’t understand why the towel is being waved. The EPS mean still looks very decent for PDX.

It's a constant game of catch-up at this point, and the OP has the best handle on things at this point anyways. 18z Euro will be warmer than the 12z.

The CAA is slowing and the offshore energy is tightening up with each new run that comes out. This isn't going to work out for us. Great chance for you still and probably down to Olympia at this point, realistically.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think it's pretty safe to say that things will have more than evened out going into next winter, assuming the rest of this year produces fairly typical late winter conditions. Unfortunately we're still going to be due for our decadal regional Nino turd soon.

The good news is it is extremely unlikely next year will be a Nino. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At this point the next January we have which mirrors 1961-90 averages is going to seem epic. 

[FroYoBro]

10 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Definitely was a cool storm but I'm sure it pales in comparison to the February 2019 storms up there.

Such a weenie take. 2017 was amazing and you may not get another snowstorm like that in the next 35 years.

[Timmy Supercell]

7 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Definitely was a cool storm but I'm sure it pales in comparison to the February 2019 storms up there.

Maybe at Port Angeles. But even they had 18-24", about the same.

My biggest storm was Jan 2017 so far. Nothing over 5" in a calendar day fell in Feb 2019 but I totaled more for the month than I did in Jan 2017. Kind of apples and oranges.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

December.

Unfortunately, our 40 degree streak looks like it’s gonna be toast.  Kinda sad in a sadistic way.

Maybe? I think there's a really decent shot at 40s on Friday, honestly. 18z NAM has that westerly surge popping us up to 41, even amidst its dementedly cold output. Thursday is probably our best chance with precip moving in early in the day, but I'm thinking PDX will be there in the AM hours.

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Such a weenie take. 2017 was amazing and you may not get another snowstorm like that in 25 years.

lol at this rate we won't get another snowstorm period in 25 years.... likely not but it sucks to be so close yet so far.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At this point the next January we have which mirrors 1961-90 averages is going to seem epic. 

January was last month.  You now have to wait until August to lament our January futility or fire up the unbridled optimism that we’re about to turn the corner.  Thanks in advance.