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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

November 2006 is one of my top 3 favorite weather memories. I was in Eastern Washington and came back to a foot of snow and it stayed around for what seemed like forever!

Mine as well! For pure excitement it ranks #1 for my lifetime! The forecast did not look good for much of any snow except for maybe the Arctic front if it happened would only be 1-2”...And all of us weather weenies were not doing well on the forum. Well it was a huge shocker when I try to get home from being in Olympia on that Sunday evening to downed trees everywhere, no power and heavy snow still falling...Was pure insanity and I loved every minute of it! 

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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It was 19 degrees when I took this pic! I will take that...Or 31 degrees heavy snow...Doesn’t matter to me! 

B51DC4B1-1BEF-40F8-BF91-48A371E90113.jpeg

Nobody takes more pics riding things around than Randy.

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Low. Solar.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

My gut doesn’t mean much but the pattern itself is moving toward being a somewhat rudderless mess.  That can be a good thing sometimes, but more often than not truly cold continental air needs more help.  Those mountains are tall!

A lot of what’s being shown now in the long-mid range is very much dependent on exact timing and phasing.  Good luck getting any kind of realistic handle on it any time soon and things will probably look a lot different in a couple days, for better or worse.  The only consistent features are a very cold air mass to our north and east and very tentative Pacific blocking.  One is good, the other not so much.  

A surface low spins up from the south Pacific on the models over the weekend and makes Valentine's Day the greatest love we have ever known.

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6 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Some weirdo on Facebook told me that with arctic fronts there is no convergence.   He claimed that it is only due to overrunning.  It was game, set, match.......had to block him.

That guy clearly has some density issues.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Largest flakes I ever saw was in Lake Stevens when I lived there.  It was probably 31 degrees and I swear some of them were the size of dollar bills.

The heavy wet snow that fell on that crazy day about month and half ago were about quarter sized here.  Those were the largest flakes I've seen. 

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Nobody takes more pics riding things around than Randy.

Very true.  😄

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The heavy wet snow that fell on that crazy day about month and half ago were about quarter sized here.  Those were the largest flakes I've seen. 

Thanksgiving in 2005-6...can't remember which one it was.  Just an amazing event that lasted a couple days.  Miss it.

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18 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Our wet snow is a lot wetter than yours out East. In 2007-08 I got 19" total and not a flake of it fell while the temperature was below 32 degrees. 

You sure about that? 😉 A good portion of our seasonal snow falls above freezing too. We can get 6-8” chowder bombs with temperatures hovering at 36-37°F.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

You sure about that? 😉 A good portion of our seasonal snow falls above freezing too. We can get 6-8” chowder bombs at 36-37°F.

All I know is much of the snow I got that Winter wouldn't have blown around in a hurricane. A lot of it was like rubber cement.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

All I know is much of the snow I got that Winter wouldn't have blown around in a hurricane. A lot of it was like rubber cement.

Takes more wind for sure but it still blows around.

January 2011 was 36°F mashed potato slop here, and even that stuff blew around like crazy once winds got strong enough. Doesn’t need to be a hurricane lol.

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9 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Alright. I’ve had my Friday night gin and tonics, and am pretty excited. What is everyone’s predictions on tonight’s runs? 

Cold and Snow. 

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9 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Alright. I’ve had my Friday night gin and tonics, and am pretty excited. What is everyone’s predictions on tonight’s runs? 

My feeling is that this is going to trend colder and snowier.   After today's model trends... I am a believer.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Every time someone says cold or snow, we have to take a shot.  

Or later every time Rob says c'mon.

Haha everyone will be plowed before Day 2.5! LOL C'mON!!!

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Trusting nothing yet, even though this is the closest we’ve been to something decent.

At least it looks like it might get windy and cold at the very least. How cold and if there’s snow is yet to be decided ofc.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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I know the moment that I hop onboard with this, it will be cold rain and a slow march into spring. So I wont. Winter is still canceled.

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1 minute ago, iFred said:

I know the moment that I hop onboard with this, it will be cold rain and a slow march into spring. So I wont. Winter is still canceled.

Reverse psychology.

Its how I deal with Seahawks games! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We know it's cold biased, but the 00z NAM is only out through 4AM Tuesday and 850's get this cold:

BLI: -13.3

SEA: -11

PDX: -9

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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I’d assume this type of cold wave would be considered a backdoor blast, right? Times like these you gotta love the Gorge.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

We know it's cold biased, but the 00z NAM is only out through 4AM Tuesday and 850's get this cold:

BLI: -13.3

SEA: -11

PDX: -9

It also brings the trough a day earlier than the Euro. Still good to see, the more models on board the better.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Reverse psychology.

Its how I deal with Seahawks games! 

Trade Russell and sell the team to a city that actually cares about football, like San Antonio!

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Just now, iFred said:

Trade Russell and sell the team to a city that actually cares about football, like San Antonio!

Or Oklahoma City! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

How cold does it need to be to kill all the moles in my yard? theyve absolutely destroyed it and negated about 150 hours worth of work this summer. 

 

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I am not yet onboard.  I love what the models are showing but I think tonight’s models will back off some.  Like Matt said, it’s a messy setup that will likely change.  I will get onboard Sunday if the models are still looking good

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41 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Cold air significantly further SW on the 00z NAM than the 18z.

 

trend-nam-2021020600-f078.850th.conus.gif

The trend is our friend at the moment.

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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K I’ll be back later, gonna assume all the models have death ridges and windless inversions for now 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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  • Meteorologist

Poured an adult beverage. Whether the entire bottle gets consumed depends on tonight’s runs.

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35 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Alright. I’ve had my Friday night gin and tonics, and am pretty excited. What is everyone’s predictions on tonight’s runs? 

I'm predicting this to be an exciting night. I'm predicting tonight is the night the model runs start showing a big snowstorm within the next week, hopefully somewhere along the lines of a big regional event. LET'S GO COLD AND SNOW!!! 🙏🌨☃️🥶

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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I’m gonna predict that tomorrow evening’s predictions about tomorrow’s 00z model predictions are gonna be off the hook.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Small step back probably. More separation between AK vortex and TPV in Canada. Assuming my theory on that is correct, which it might not be.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Small step back probably? More separation between AK vortex and TPV in Canada.

Devastating trends!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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