snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Hard to believe SEA had a record low of 6 on this date in 1950. It can happen in January! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Hard to believe SEA had a record low of 6 on this date in 1950. It can happen in January! Its even harder to believe that this was the lamest of the three cold waves that month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Hard to believe SEA had a record low of 6 on this date in 1950. It can happen in January! Even better, Pasco hit -19 for an all-time record low two days from now in 2004. It can happen in January pretty recently! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Even better, Pasco hit -19 for an all-time record low two days from now in 2004. It can happen in January pretty recently! Eh, that's a bit wrong. The airport did hit -19 in 2004, but they only have reliable records back to the mid 80s and are not an official NCDC COOP station. The coldest official temp in the Tri-Cities was -29 at Kennewick on 12/13/1919, which was by all accounts a way colder airmass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Eh, that's a bit wrong. The airport did hit -19 in 2004, but they only have reliable records back to the mid 80s and are not an official NCDC COOP station. The coldest official temp in the Tri-Cities was -29 at Kennewick on 12/13/1919, which was by all accounts a way colder airmass. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 If you're gonna roll with the big boys on these historic statistics, be sure to get your info right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 As a lot of you know I am finishing my degree in Atmospheric Science this spring. I decided I want to do more schooling so I am going to begin work on my masters degree this summer. I am going to be studying a few things, but my big project will be with ensemble systems for MCS formation. Seems like a lot of fun! Anyway just wanted to share that in case anybody was curious.Still at Utah? Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 If you're gonna roll with the big boys on these historic statistics, be sure to get your info right It's still an all-time record, sure as s**t. Just as sure as the 2-4 inches of snow at your house on 12-1-07 and PDX's 33 degree high on Tuesday. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 It's still an all-time record, sure as s**t. Just as sure as the 2-4 inches of snow at your house on 12-1-07 and PDX's 33 degree high on Tuesday. I started weather records last month, so my low of 22 this week was an all time record for Bellingham. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 I started weather records last month, so my low of 22 this week was an all time record for Bellingham. It's a good place to start... I wouldn't bet the mortgage against it holding up a while. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 In regards to the SSW, I suspect it's a "delayed not denied" scenario. We were close to achieving a SSW this time, but just missed the threshold of no return.Cue the jaws music. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 He really wasn't off by that much. Obviously the general pattern he forecast came to fruition, but it just didn't lock in.It's not really that unusual to have Arctic air across most of the continent East of the Rockies in early January. Happens most years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 I keep seeing people state how courageous it was to do a long range forecast. This s**t is not life and death. I have no interest in doing one myself so I guess that means I am not courageous , I am entirely too busy to even take the time to put one together, I am not lucky enough to be fully retired and loaded in my mid 30's like some. I am a weather weenie through and through, I understand the things that make our weather what it is, and am disapointed when things in my backyard are not what I want. I will never change on that.I think the courage comes from making a call on this forum where you get ripped to shreds when snow is naysayed or doesn't pan out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Exciting winter weather tonight for my home town! Vancouver/Bellingham could have some surprises although the immediate switchover to soaking rains is a bit disappointing. Could see 10" at higher hills in the region. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Long Term update... CFS shows the NW getting persistent cold around the 23rd of January last through mid February. Euro weeklies show the EPO & NAO dropping deeply negative by the 23rd of January. Big potential here. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Best of luck with that, I just finished my MASc this past fall after 4 1/2 years of slogging it out while working full time. If I have any word of advice it would be to avoid jumping into full time employment while still working on your thesis, unless of course it's directly related to your thesis. Sounds like any interesting program anyway, something I'd like to get into myself long term, taking modern machine learning concepts and applying them to regional meteorology.I personally have only taken an intro to A.I. course. Have you taken several A.I. courses, or do you specialize in that at all, or are you just interested in applying it to meteorology? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Still at Utah?Yeah, with Dr. Pu if you had her while you were here. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Long Term update... CFS shows the NW getting persistent cold around the 23rd of January last through mid February. http://i59.tinypic.com/2r7pz79.jpg http://i60.tinypic.com/2evtier.jpg Euro weeklies show the EPO & NAO dropping deeply negative by the 23rd of January. Big potential here. http://i58.tinypic.com/21kza68.jpg http://i60.tinypic.com/155jcy1.jpg http://i60.tinypic.com/24yza6t.jpg This would seem to follow the progression of this winter. We had a blast in mid Nov, about 35-40 days late in late Dec, and then if you roll that forward that would be late Jan-early Feb. 2 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 This would seem to follow the progression of this winter. We had a blast in mid Nov, about 35-40 days late in late Dec, and then if you roll that forward that would be late Jan-early Feb.Although the 23rd seems a bit to early, I definitely agree Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Got a dusting of snow here this morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Even better, Pasco hit -19 for an all-time record low two days from now in 2004. It can happen in January pretty recently! Impressive reading but yeah not the all time record for the area. January 2004 did bring top tier cold to parts of eastern WA, with readings like -29 in Lacrosse and -22 in Spokane. Even the -29 in Kalispell can be considered top tier since they have only had 8 airmasses in the last 115 years reach -30, and none since 12/29/90. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 I personally have only taken an intro to A.I. course. Have you taken several A.I. courses, or do you specialize in that at all, or are you just interested in applying it to meteorology? I've taken an A.I. course before, but most of what I learned was from independent research and using various machine learning techniques to solve biometric recognition problems; currently working on writing a book about it. Image recognition is a big part of it, so it wouldn't be a huge leap to bring it into meteorological prediction; perhaps developing better indices to recognize Arctic blast potential in the PNW. Things like PDO are generally calculated by applying Principal Component Analysis to temperature/pressure/etc grids in a large geographic area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Eh, that's a bit wrong. The airport did hit -19 in 2004, but they only have reliable records back to the mid 80s and are not an official NCDC COOP station. The coldest official temp in the Tri-Cities was -29 at Kennewick on 12/13/1919, which was by all accounts a way colder airmass. Yeah for the lower Columbia basin January 2004 wasn't even in the ballpark as some of the big hitters from the past, like 1919, 1930, 1950 etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 I've taken an A.I. course before, but most of what I learned was from independent research and using various machine learning techniques to solve biometric recognition problems; currently working on writing a book about it. Image recognition is a big part of it, so it wouldn't be a huge leap to bring it into meteorological prediction; perhaps developing better indices to recognize Arctic blast potential in the PNW. Things like PDO are generally calculated by applying Principal Component Analysis to temperature/pressure/etc grids in a large geographic area. That sounds like really interesting stuff. Seriously. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Yeah, with Dr. Pu if you had her while you were here.I remember her! She was the nicest. Always helped me with my met hw. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 So any changes with the possible snowfall in the far northern Wa zones? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 So any changes with the possible snowfall in the far northern Wa zones? Looks decent for southern BC. WRF probably overdoing it IMO. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/wa_snow24.36.0000.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 I think you can stick a fork in any snow potential south of Whatcom County tonight. The low level air mass is just way too wet to support any wet bulb cooling. The good news is the pattern being shown by the various models over the next two weeks is not a typical El Nino pattern as evidenced by the CPC analogs and the lack of a coherent southern branch of the jet across the southern part of the country. Besides that the CFS shows the warm ENSO anomalies will weaken through the remainder of the winter. No way this event will go down as an official El Nino, which could be bad news for next winter. I'm not sure enough warm water was purged from the "system" this winter to avoid another El Nino attempt later in the year. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Looks decent for southern BC. WRF probably overdoing it IMO. Environment Canada is forecasting about 1" for the lowest elevations near the coast with up to 4-8" inland and higher Elevations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 I think you can stick a fork in any snow potential south of Whatcom County tonight. The low level air mass is just way too wet to support any wet bulb cooling.The good news is the pattern being shown by the various models over the next two weeks is not a typical El Nino pattern as evidenced by the CPC analogs and the lack of a coherent southern branch of the jet across the southern part of the country. Besides that the CFS shows the warm ENSO anomalies will weaken through the remainder of the winter. No way this event will go down as an official El Nino, which could be bad news for next winter. I'm not sure enough warm water was purged from the "system" this winter to avoid another El Nino attempt later in the year.I remember back in the 80's there were a few dud January's but we had great Febuary's! I think one of those years (1988?) i had snow on the ground for most of the month, wouldn't mind a repeat! Or a repeat of Feb 2011, that was a great last week of the month! We have plenty of winter left. Also in terms of January, didn't we have a snooze fest in Jan 1996 until the last week of the month, then it turned great, could be a repeat, looks like the PNA is hinting on dropping after mid month. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 I remember back in the 80's there were a few dud January's but we had great Febuary's! I think one of those years (1988?) i had snow on the ground for most of the month, wouldn't mind a repeat! Or a repeat of Feb 2011, that was a great last week of the month! We have plenty of winter left. Also in terms of January, didn't we have a snooze fest in Jan 1996 until the last week of the month, then it turned great, could be a repeat, looks like the PNA is hinting on dropping after mid month.Feb 1989. My area recorded 26 days of snowcover that month. Big arctic blast to open the month. Carried over into the first week of March as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 I think you can stick a fork in any snow potential south of Whatcom County tonight. The low level air mass is just way too wet to support any wet bulb cooling. The good news is the pattern being shown by the various models over the next two weeks is not a typical El Nino pattern as evidenced by the CPC analogs and the lack of a coherent southern branch of the jet across the southern part of the country. Besides that the CFS shows the warm ENSO anomalies will weaken through the remainder of the winter. No way this event will go down as an official El Nino, which could be bad news for next winter. I'm not sure enough warm water was purged from the "system" this winter to avoid another El Nino attempt later in the year. I think if 925 temps stay below zero long than progged, than more areas may at least see some wet non sticking snow late tonight. And 925 temps are colder right now than progged so you never know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Feb 1989. My area recorded 26 days of snowcover that month. Big arctic blast to open the month. Carried over into the first week of March as wellThat's right, forgot that was the same winter as the big March snow. That was a great stretch! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 I think if 925 temps stay below zero long than progged, than more areas may at least see some wet non sticking snow late tonight. And 925 temps are colder right now than progged so you never know. 925mb (1).gif I suppose some non sticking snow is possible in a few places. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 I think if 925 temps stay below zero long than progged, than more areas may at least see some wet non sticking snow late tonight. And 925 temps are colder right now than progged so you never know. 925mb (1).gifWould be nice to see some flakes falling even if it did not stick. I am only at 36 degrees, figured I would have been up near 40 by now. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 I suppose some non sticking snow is possible in a few places.I would love to just see snow falling at this rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 That's right, forgot that was the same winter as the big March snow. That was a great stretch! That winter was truly great where I lived thanks to a c-zone that brought a good snow in early Jan also. I'll never forget the Feb blast and the March snow. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 I would love to just see snow falling at this rate. At least we had an ok snowfall here in late November which stuck around for a while. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 37/34 with a light north wind at BLI. We'll see if we can hang onto the north winds tonight with some precip. 33 degree sticking slop is possible if we do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bham_Guy Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 37/34 with a light north wind at BLI. We'll see if we can hang onto the north winds tonight with some precip. 33 degree sticking slop is possible if we do. Definitely a marginal setup for us. The north county should do OK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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