epiceast Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Also interesting to note the GFS is further west with the blocking in week two than previous runs.Yea lots of good snow opportunities for different elevations. Not too impressive above 3k'+ though. All pretty far out though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Some really sexy ensemble members tonight and a robust retrogression signal that starts at hour 276 and goes to the end. We might be getting somewhere. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 So..delayed, not denied with the NAM flip? Or do we fail again? Niño wave-climo (seasonally governed) favors a late January flip, despite what looked like a very solid opportunity for early wave-driving back in early Jan. Question is, does elasticity win out again? Solar trying to keep the PV intact.. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 I'm surprised nobody else has commented on the 0z GFS.It's one of the four most important meals of the day! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 So..delayed, not denied with the NAM flip? Or do we fail again? Niño wave-climo (seasonally governed) favors a late January flip, despite what looked like a very solid opportunity for early wave-driving back in early Jan. Question is, does elasticity win out again? Solar trying to keep the PV intact.. We need some anti solar and anti elasticity logos on here. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Some good members on the Canadian ensemble also. Hopefully we'll see something start to emerge over the next few days. Edit: The ECMWF looks ripe for retrogression late in the run also. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Its funny how everyone thinks everybody is a foot ball fan. Lady today asked me about seahawks. I dont watch football, never have even watched a game. She looked at me like I was a alien. I asked her if she seen the latest ecmwf 12z run. What kind of a look did you get? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Some really sexy ensemble members tonight and a robust retrogression signal that starts at hour 276 and goes to the end. We might be getting somewhere.Looks to me like the Operational is a pretty big outlier. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Looks to me like the Operational is a pretty big outlier. The 500mb maps showed about 1/4 of them looking pretty good late in the run. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Here's an interesting stats document for 2013. http://www.agf.gov.bc.ca/stats/YinReview/2013_Agrifood_YIR_Web.pdfI guess 2014 is too newly finished to have a review for it. It seems in 2013, Blueberries and Apples were the biggest sellers from BC. I believe I read the US was the biggest importer of BC's Fruit & Nut exports.I have seen plenty of blueberries and apples for sale here in Socal's grocery stores that are from BC, and many apples that are from WA when they are in season. Of course, WA and BC feature a prime apple growing climate as they need so many chilling hours to properly set fruit. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Aleutian Ridging! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2015011200/gem-ens_z500a_namer_65.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 I'm skeptical of the GGEM solution..hard for me to envision a retrograde that early, but we'll see. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 - ... Perhaps try thinking in terms more.. of broader cold air's at that point being just 2 or 3 days previous to full regression north... this while also at the same time where looked at more longitudinally.. having been slowing its over-all movement and pace more eastward for 5 or 6 days. — With these ideas in mind and where looking at the date pointed to, I'd say .. that some amount of retrograde is certainly not, implausible. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 6z GFS Well, well, well.... Finally, something interesting pops up on the models. Yes, I do realize this is beyond day 10 way out in la-la land, but with how dull and boring things have been we're really hard pressed to find any weather excitement, so why not look at this distinct possibility. Some of the day 11-15 GFS/ECMWF Ensemble members show this possibility too. Anytime a run shows a massive block near/east of the Aleutians during December-February it's hopeful, right? For any event whether it's a wind storm or arctic blast you have to start somewhere, including sometimes beyond day 10. I'm sure 12z runs later this morning will remove any such idea.... Cautiously optimistic. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Yeah major outlier Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antipex Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Yeah major outlier It's still a major outlier on the 12z but it's still there, nonetheless... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 I’ve seen more sun since it’s been up today than I have the last two days total. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 It's still a major outlier on the 12z but it's still there, nonetheless... 2 in a row! Hot D**n, this is getting serious. How do you know its an outlier on the 12z? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Just two more weeks of generally mild temps and zero mountain snow. THEN we'll get that carrot! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Just two more weeks of generally mild temps and zero mountain snow. THEN we'll get that carrot! I might puke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 I was just looking at my garden journal from the last few years. In two months, my plum should be in bloom along with my maples. There's still time to squeeze in a snow and cold spell of course!Just two more weeks of generally mild temps and zero mountain snow. THEN we'll get that carrot! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Dang the 12z is good too!!! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antipex Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 2 in a row! Hot D**n, this is getting serious. How do you know its an outlier on the 12z? Actually I don't... good catch. I guess I jumped the gun assuming it would be at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Actually I don't... good catch. I guess I jumped the gun assuming it would be at this point. It obviously will be, its not like we are going to see a -10C ensemble mean for Seattle at day 15. That just doesn't happen. Considering the height anomaly center out near western Alaska on the 6Z ensemble, the long range gfs solutions this morning aren't really that surprising. Considering the GEM ensemble also has positive height anomalies near the Aleutians in the long range, I would think we might see a few more good long range forecasts upcoming. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 It's still a major outlier on the 12z but it's still there, nonetheless... So, often our "warm-ups" show up as major outliers also, So I have a hope...Just one hope, no more, as I used up my quota for the winter. Damit! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 I might puke. You don't like carrots? 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 I think we're at the point of the season where I need ot get excited about cold zonal flow on hour 384 of GFS. I just can't force myself to do it though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 So, often our "warm-ups" show up as major outliers also, So I have a hope...Just one hope, no more, as I used up my quota for the winter. Damit! Except a "warm-up" is our default position recently. All of this ridging for the sake of possibly getting arctic air is not worth it IMO. Right now I am excited about the possibility of cold zonal flow eventually. This ski season has been frustrating (just like last year). I know we will make up for it come later in the season, but it loses my appeal. This is the time of the year when you really want to be getting outside and enjoying the winter stoke. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Except a "warm-up" is our default position recently. All of this ridging for the sake of possibly getting arctic air is not worth it IMO. Right now I am excited about the possibility of cold zonal flow eventually. This ski season has been frustrating (just like last year). I know we will make up for it come later in the season, but it loses my appeal. This is the time of the year when you really want to be getting outside and enjoying the winter stoke.I do agree to some extent and whole heartedly agree that the winter ski season has been horrible! That being said, I have one hope left and I am going to use it. It was my golden coated hope so it has magical powers. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Cant wait for the 18z! Wait... did I really say that??! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Except a "warm-up" is our default position recently. All of this ridging for the sake of possibly getting arctic air is not worth it IMO. Right now I am excited about the possibility of cold zonal flow eventually. This ski season has been frustrating (just like last year). I know we will make up for it come later in the season, but it loses my appeal. This is the time of the year when you really want to be getting outside and enjoying the winter stoke.To be fair last season was pretty great if you forget first two months. I doubt this season will be as good because we are not in La Nina or Cold ENSO, I don't think we can have a great 3 month run now where it just snows enough to go from zero to hero. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 12z Euro is great for California!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 To be fair last season was pretty great if you forget first two months. I doubt this season will be as good because we are not in La Nina or Cold ENSO, I don't think we can have a great 3 month run now where it just snows enough to go from zero to hero.Wasn't Snoqualmie open till Cinco de Mayo last year? We'll have to do some serious catching up to make that possible this time. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Wasn't Snoqualmie open till Cino de Mayo last year? We'll have to do some serious catching up to make that possible this time.Yea it was. It usually has enough snow to be open in May probably 75% of the seasons, it wasn't open for a few years because when Boyne first acquired Summit they didn't expect it to be profitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Yea it was. It usually has enough snow to be open in May probably 75% of the seasons, it wasn't open for a few years because when Boyne first acquired Summit they didn't expect it to be profitable.I'm sure they will stay open as long as they possibly can this Spring to try to make up for the crappy start. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Wasn't Snoqualmie open till Cinco de Mayo last year? We'll have to do some serious catching up to make that possible this time. Snoqualmie is almost always open till Mid to Late April. It will not suprise me one bit if they stay open till early May this year. It really is not that unusual for them to open on Cinco De Mayo, for their annual celebration. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 I have heard that after Spring Break, interest in skiing really drops off even if snow conditions are good. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 I have heard that after Spring Break, interest in skiing really drops off even if snow conditions are good.And it's usually mainly the hardcore skiers who have season passes that keep going up. Without new revenue streams from daily passes, I can understand why the ski areas close earlier than they could. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antipex Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Yep, the cold at the end of the 12z was a major outlier again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 I have heard that after Spring Break, interest in skiing really drops off even if snow conditions are good.very true, a couple years ago, you could have comfortably skied into mid june, but they still closed in may. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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