February 2014 in the PNW

[Dadio]

All right... it will snow all weekend at SEA and next week as well.

 

That is my forecast.

 

GFS MOS has 40 on Saturday and 44 on Sunday at SEA.    And 47 on Monday.

 

But because the last couple days were colder than anticipated... then it will of course be wrong forever.   

 

And so wrong that it will be snowing like crazy on Monday in Seattle!    

It would be fun if this was right.

[TT-SEA]

SEA:   850mb temp / thickness

 

Now: -11C and 521

 

Friday 4 p.m.  -7 and 521

 

Saturday 4 p.m.  -5 and 532

 

Sunday  4 p.m.  -1 and 535

 

Monday 4 p.m.  +1 and 540

[TT-SEA]

You dont think the below freezing dew points and offshore flow will be a player as the nws noted in there latest discussion?

 

 

Sunday afternoon... temp is in the low 40s and dewpoint in the low 30s.    Probably not good enough.   

[GHweatherChris]

SEA:   850mb temp / thickness

 

Now: -11C and 521

 

Friday 4 p.m.  -7 and 521

 

Saturday 4 p.m.  -5 and 532

 

Sunday  4 p.m.  -1 and 535

 

Monday 4 p.m.  +1 and 540

Is that what your blessed Euro says?

[TT-SEA]

It would be fun if this was right.

 

Sure would!   

[TT-SEA]

Is that what your blessed Euro says?

 

GFS output.

[Dadio]

 

For parts of: Southern half of WA … Most of OR … Most of ID …

Office:  TheWeatherSpace.com has issued a Winter Storm Watch effective Friday and Saturday …

Issued:  2/6/2014 at 8:45pm PST

Discussion:  Continued snow storms will be expected across the Pacific Northwest areas.  On top of what fell today, more will be expected on Friday into Saturday across OR/WA.

The storm looks to bring mostly rain to areas south of Eugene, however areas north will be all snow, some of it significant once again.  The heaviest snowfall for Southern WA will be later Friday into Saturday …

This is the snowfall projection map here at TheWeatherSpace.com so you can find your location via the county map.

http://www.theweatherspace.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2614d.jpg

 

I like the pretty picture. It would be very cool if this forecast is correct. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

For parts of: Southern half of WA … Most of OR … Most of ID …Lol.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Office:  TheWeatherSpace.com has issued a Winter Storm Watch effective Friday and Saturday …

Issued:  2/6/2014 at 8:45pm PST

Discussion:  Continued snow storms will be expected across the Pacific Northwest areas.  On top of what fell today, more will be expected on Friday into Saturday across OR/WA.

The storm looks to bring mostly rain to areas south of Eugene, however areas north will be all snow, some of it significant once again.  The heaviest snowfall for Southern WA will be later Friday into Saturday …

This is the snowfall projection map here at TheWeatherSpace.com so you can find your location via the county map.

http://www.theweatherspace.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2614d.jpg

 

[TT-SEA]

So you go from convinced that we should all follow the Euro to, everyone should follow the WRF GFS.

 

What gives.

 

The next couple days will be fun and interesting in alot of areas, hopefully here, but probably not.

 

But for the sake of sanity please pick a model and stick to it and not pick one and then use another for fact. 

 

 

The ECMWF is the same.    All the models show a moderating air mass through Monday.    ECMWF and GFS and Canadian and WRF are all too warm for lowland snow except near the Gorge and to the north of Everett by Sunday and for everyone on Monday.

 

Saturday is our best chance.

[GHweatherChris]

The ECMWF is the same.    All the models show a moderating air mass through Monday.    ECMWF and GFS and Canadian and WRF are all too warm for lowland snow except near the Gorge and to the north of Everett by Sunday and for everyone on Monday.

 

Saturday is our best chance.

I am not worried about anything past Saturday night.

 

It must be so easy for you to look at models and post the demise since you will be leaving for Hawaii soon.  Good job.

[TT-SEA]

I give up.  

 

I guess people don't like actual details of the models.

 

Clearly I need to pretend to protect people not near the Gorge (where it should be cold until Monday morning).

 

Its all good.   Cold air will be locked in place and definitely will not moderate.   Snow and very cold in Seattle until the middle of next week.         

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hood canal will be snow sunday. You can bank on it.

[TT-SEA]

I am not worried about anything past Saturday night.

 

It must be so easy for you to look at models and post the demise since you will be leaving for Hawaii soon.  Good job.

 

 

I will be here all of next week enjoying the rain with everyone else.      

 

And I will enjoy the rain... we need it.   And more mountain snow.

[TT-SEA]

Hood canal will be snow sunday. You can bank on it.

 

 

OK... that is like the Gorge in way.   Stays cold forever.

[paulb/eugene]

00z Euro:
Low tomorrow tracks from Cape Blanco to Crescent to Ontario OR.

0.7 to 0.8 inch liquid QPF from PDX to EUG. Oddly, the Euro model pegs Eugene temp at hr 6 as 37 degrees. That is not going to happen.

Snow totals from model initialization through 48h:
EUG 1.8″
CVO 7.5″
SLE 8.3″
Aurora: 7.2″
HIO: 6.4″
TTD: can’t tell if 6.5 or 8.5″
PDX: 7″

I hope Eugene gets more snow out of that QPF than ice, don’t need tree damage.

[GHweatherChris]

I will be here all of next week enjoying the rain with everyone else.      

 

And I will enjoy the rain... we need it.   And more mountain snow.

I don't believe this. But, thats ok.  

[brody]

I will be here all of next week enjoying the rain with everyone else.      

 

And I will enjoy the rain... we need it.   And more mountain snow.

Apparently the models are infallible just like YOU

[TT-SEA]

 

00z Euro:

Low tomorrow tracks from Cape Blanco to Crescent to Ontario OR.

0.7 to 0.8 inch liquid QPF from PDX to EUG. Oddly, the Euro model pegs Eugene temp at hr 6 as 37 degrees. That is not going to happen.

Snow totals from model initialization through 48h:

EUG 1.8″

CVO 7.5″

SLE 8.3″

Aurora: 7.2″

HIO: 6.4″

TTD: can’t tell if 6.5 or 8.5″

PDX: 7″

I hope Eugene gets more snow out of that QPF than ice, don’t need tree damage.

 

 

 

Amazing.

 

Absolutely amazing event for Oregon and SW WA.   

[GHweatherChris]

 

00z Euro:

Low tomorrow tracks from Cape Blanco to Crescent to Ontario OR.

0.7 to 0.8 inch liquid QPF from PDX to EUG. Oddly, the Euro model pegs Eugene temp at hr 6 as 37 degrees. That is not going to happen.

Snow totals from model initialization through 48h:

EUG 1.8″

CVO 7.5″

SLE 8.3″

Aurora: 7.2″

HIO: 6.4″

TTD: can’t tell if 6.5 or 8.5″

PDX: 7″

I hope Eugene gets more snow out of that QPF than ice, don’t need tree damage.

 

So it that is progging PDX at 7 inches then that means there will be more moisture available up north of there compared to today.

[TT-SEA]

Apparently the models are infallible just like YOU

 

 

Then why look at them at all?

 

Like I said... don't look at any of it.   It will be snowing for the next week in Seattle.   All is good.   

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Nice to see some formerly snow starved areas have done well out of this, looks like the bulk of the precip did end up going a bit north after all. Interesting to see that the atmospheric mid levels have moistened up a bit to the north now. Looking better for at least some flurries up in Northern WA/Vancouver Island tomorrow. Would be good to see a low form with a bit of definition this weekend to spread things around a bit. Looks pretty certain this will come to an end on Monday, but there's still enough uncertainty in the smaller details that we'll probably see some surprises this Saturday-Sunday.

[GHweatherChris]

Can someone post some Euro snowfall maps?

[TT-SEA]

Good news!  

 

00Z ECMWF shows solid area of precip for the Seattle area all day on Saturday.

 

And its still cold enough for snow.

 

There you go!    We might still score before the warm up begins.

[paulb/eugene]

Euro has 2.1" snow at SEA with next system

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking down the road this evening.

 

[TT-SEA]

Euro has 2.1" snow at SEA with next system

 

Mainly on Saturday morning correct?

[paulb/eugene]

There is no way in bloody hell that Eugene gets to 39F as max temp by 6z (now).   IF the Euro verifies then Eugene would certainly get several inches of snow before changeover to freezing rain/rain.

[chopper 918]

Paul, that 7" is in addition to what we have now at PDX ending Sat afternoon?

[Deweydog]

Tim, you're gonna burst a blood vessel.  

[GHweatherChris]

Good news!  

 

00Z ECMWF shows solid area of precip for the Seattle area all day on Saturday.

 

And its still cold enough for snow.

 

There you go!    We might still score before the warm up begins.

Got an image/images?

 

I have a good feeling for this weekend.

[TT-SEA]

Tim, you're gonna burst a blood vessel.  

 

Can't win.

 

If its not favorable then everyone attacks the models and the messenger.    I am guessing alcohol is also involved tonight which it not a fair fight since I am not drinking.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

POST IMAGES!! POST.POST.POST.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Mainly on Saturday morning correct?

All weekend!!! Stop being negative. Lol.

[paulb/eugene]

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014020700/nw/ecmwf_tsnow_nw_9.png

[TT-SEA]

Got an image/images?

 

I have a good feeling for this weekend.

 

 

Too much work.

 

I am tired of you guys jumping all over me if the models show something unfavorable.

 

In case you have not noticed... I post most everything.   Good or bad.   It is what it is.   

[paulb/eugene]

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014020700/nw/ecmwf_tprecip_nw_9.pnghttp://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014020700/nw/ecmwf_tsnow_nw_9.png

[Black Hole]

I am forecasting 2-4" general for the metro area tomorrow but I realize that somebody, like today, will get much more than that. Looks like some snow to zr on Saturday. I can't see PDX warming up before Sunday night or Monday morning.

[TT-SEA]

No images are showing up Paul.

[paulb/eugene]

I thought I was able to drag/drop them before.  Is procedure different now with the new forum venue?

[Perturbed Member]

 

00z Euro:

Low tomorrow tracks from Cape Blanco to Crescent to Ontario OR.

0.7 to 0.8 inch liquid QPF from PDX to EUG. Oddly, the Euro model pegs Eugene temp at hr 6 as 37 degrees. That is not going to happen.

Snow totals from model initialization through 48h:

EUG 1.8″

CVO 7.5″

SLE 8.3″

Aurora: 7.2″

HIO: 6.4″

TTD: can’t tell if 6.5 or 8.5″

PDX: 7″

I hope Eugene gets more snow out of that QPF than ice, don’t need tree damage.

 

The 00z Euro really shows 7 in. for PDX?