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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You are splitting hairs. Shawnigan, MUCH further north, has an even bigger departure. Eugene is on pace for their 2nd warmest July of all time, PDX 5th, not much of an outlier. And if we look at the east side, this month is blowing away pretty much every July one record over a wide area. 

 

As my previous post which you ignored, stated, it really comes down to how prone an area is to marine influence with weak onshore flow and amazingly consistently warm upper level airmasses. 

Face it. We are the desert hinterlands now. KSEA and points north are all part of the Neo PNW

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20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am grateful temps have stayed mostly in the low 90s this month, better than 117! On the other hand, no real crash, just insane warm airmass moderated slightly by onshore flow. Places whose climates are influenced more by onshore flow (i.e. near the water or gaps), have seen their temps moderated more this month. Not a tough concept. 

Yeah, the heat hasn’t really gone anywhere and has been incredibly consistent throughout the west this month, following the hellwave in late June. We’ve just lucked out in that the ridge axis has been to our east much of the time. The fact that many places on the west side are still seeing one of their warmest Julys on record despite having onshore flow much of the month sort of says it all.

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17 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yes, if one completely overlooks western WA, SLE is not as much an outlier.

No doubt the eastside is a different story.

I don’t think there’s much in the way of a legitimate argument to made about either being any kind of an outlier. Though I do wonder if you believe that cold outliers even exist.

It’s been kind of a unique July despite being very mundane overall from a pattern evolution perspective.  I still think the fact that PDX will very likely end the month with an all-time warm min/max while likely staying below 95 degrees is a testament to how consistent the pattern has been and how the intense thermal gradient very much drove bus. Areas that typically flourish in an enhanced marine layer performed as you would expect.

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17 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Monthly anomalies to date. SEA is the cool outlier. SLE is the warm outlier. The mean falls in the +1 to +2 range.

SEA: -.4

AST: -.3

Quillayute: -.1

OLM: +.3

HIO: +1.2

Hoquiam: +1.2

BLI: +1.6

VUO: +1.6

WFO Seattle: +1.8

PDX: +1.8

EUG: +2.4

MMV: +2.4

TTD: +2.6

SLE: +2.9

 

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I don’t think there’s much in the way of a legitimate argument to made about either being any kind of an outlier. Though I do wonder if you believe that cold outliers even exist.

This post from last night showed how SLE literally is the warm outlier for the westside, and SEA is the cool outlier.

Nothing to argue about - it's just fact.

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

 

This post from last night showed how SLE literally is the warm outlier for the westside, and SEA is the cool outlier.

Nothing to argue about - it's just fact.

Neither look like an outlier at all. Just the opposite ends of a generally warm spectrum overall.  

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6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Neither look like an outlier at all. Just the opposite ends of a generally warm spectrum overall.  

And Andrew was accusing me of semantics...

Both are furthest from the mean, and least representative of the western lowlands overall. That was the point.

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78 here now... heading out on the water.   I remember earlier this week the models were actually showing some rain for today.    I would trade a sunny, warm Sunday for some rain at this point.    I still want summer to continue but some rain would be awesome.    

It was pouring rain here on this day in 2015... and North Bend ended up with 1.3 inches of rain on 7/25 and 26.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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39 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

And Andrew was accusing me of semantics...

Both are furthest from the mean, and least representative of the western lowlands overall. That was the point.

We also have a legit chance to break July, 2015. But I guess we aren't part of the region...like Feb, 2021.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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32 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

And Andrew was accusing me of semantics...

Both are furthest from the mean, and least representative of the western lowlands overall. That was the point.

Semantics? I think it’s more about intellectual honesty if you actually apply the definition of the term outlier. Neither station is throwing off the mean at all and fit quite well within what would be expected based on the prevailing patterns this month. Not rocket science…

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Just now, Jesse said:

Shaping up to be a pretty vile 12z Euro run.

Totally not that far above normal, lest we forget.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Looks a little cooler than yesterday’s overall. 

Some improvement out beyond hour 200 I guess. But the upcoming heat event starting late this week keeps getting stretched out. I’ll always take improvements in the mid range over the long range, because I am a weenie 🌭 

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29 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Semantics? I think it’s more about intellectual honesty if you actually apply the definition of the term outlier. Neither station is throwing off the mean at all and fit quite well within what would be expected based on the prevailing patterns this month. Not rocket science…

It is apparently rocket science though since we keep having the same discussion on here. It’s honestly not even worth trying to explain has been stated many many times already. People can believe what they want…I’m not going to spend time trying to change minds that don’t want to be changed. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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13 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Some improvement out beyond hour 200 I guess. But the upcoming heat event starting late this week keeps getting stretched out. I’ll always take improvements in the mid range over the long range, because I am a weenie 🌭 

Looks like a pretty traditional mid summer heatwave. Haven’t seen any prog, including today’s vile Euro run, that depicts any real offshore flow component as the ridge axis remains solidly to the east. 

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10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Looks like a pretty traditional mid summer heatwave. Haven’t seen any prog, including today’s vile Euro run, that depicts any real offshore flow component as the ridge axis remains solidly to the east. 

Didn’t realize vile had to include offshore flow. 🤔  

Be nice if it rained. Some earlier runs were toying with the idea of some monsoonal moisture getting entrained on the back end of the traditional heat wave. I liked those runs.

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Just now, Jesse said:

Didn’t realize vile had to include offshore flow. 🤔 

Be nice if it rained. Some earlier runs were toying with the idea of some monsoonal moisture getting entrained on the back end of the traditional heat wave. I liked those runs.

Some 2019 like heavy rains like august and September would be so nice. Had 1/2” of rain here on august 10th that year. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Didn’t realize vile had to include offshore flow. 🤔 

Be nice if it rained. Some earlier runs were toying with the idea of some monsoonal moisture getting entrained on the back end of the traditional heat wave. I liked those runs.

I’ll have to check the forum hyperbole matrix I drew on the back of a Dominos pizza box, if I can find it.

And yeah, getting in on the monsoonal fun would be nice at some point. A couple runs tried to tweak the dry westerly component but it looks less likely at the moment. Should help keep the smoke mitigated for now, though.

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just looking at July/August 1978, nice crash that year. Holy cow the July 20-August 10th period was hot. 6 100+ days at SLE peaking with a 3 pack of 100s in early August that topped out at 106. The next two weeks ended up being cool and wet with 2.56" of rain that August. Which is more rain in one August than we have seen in the past 10 combined. :)

Late august 2015 redux wouldn’t be bad as horrible as that summer was. Was a pretty unique, wet storm that brought a pretty significant punch of southerly winds with it too. Was a very fall like storm. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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19 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Late august 2015 redux wouldn’t be bad as horrible as that summer was. Was a pretty unique, wet storm that brought a pretty significant punch of southerly winds with it too. Was a very fall like storm. 

September 2015 was fairly pleasant too, although the torching resumed in earnest in October.

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Did we do it again?? You goddam right we did!!! 91F

A5E52970-6E8F-4400-B08D-B7F5D059D2A0.jpeg

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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80 degrees here #17 this year. We only had 17 days 80+ in 2020 and 2019…and will rattle off a few more by the end of the month. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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PDX, if they run the table the rest of the way which is definitely possible, will be at 21 85+ days for the month, tying 2018.  1985 had 25 but of course 2015 had 32.

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We did it Tiger!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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85 at SEA.    Spectacular blue sky day with a nice breeze.     Best summer weather in the country.

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Beautiful 49F and raining in Nome, Alaska today. :D 🌧️

 

65F here by the water in Everett.  The station about a mile from me says 68F.  Everett. :) I do believe we did hit 70F today though as a high.  Not sure what the official reading will be yet.  🌞

 

 

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7 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We also have a legit chance to break July, 2015. But I guess we aren't part of the region...like Feb, 2021.

Of course you're part of the region. Andrew likes to dismiss western WA, though.

Both are in fact part of the PNW lowlands!

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6 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Semantics? I think it’s more about intellectual honesty if you actually apply the definition of the term outlier. Neither station is throwing off the mean at all and fit quite well within what would be expected based on the prevailing patterns this month. Not rocket science…

SLE is the warmest station in the region north of Medford. I pointed that out to Andrew.

Not rocket science.

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8 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It is apparently rocket science though since we keep having the same discussion on here. It’s honestly not even worth trying to explain has been stated many many times already. People can believe what they want…I’m not going to spend time trying to change minds that don’t want to be changed. 

What is that same discussion? You seem to be grouping things together in your head that aren't actually the same thing.

It's been a warm summer. July has been warmer further south. SLE is running the warmest anomaly in the western lowlands.

What part of that do you disagree with and feel the need to "change minds" about?

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6 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Some 2019 like heavy rains like august and September would be so nice. Had 1/2” of rain here on august 10th that year. 

Different climate back then. Can't expect that now.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

We've been ridging for 5 weeks, so what are a few more weeks. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

You actually haven’t.

Mid-June was the last trough that made it this far south. Otherwise just a little onshore flow at times. Hottest July on record a distinct possibility. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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44 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mid-June was the last trough that made it this far south. Otherwise just a little onshore flow at times. Hottest July on record a distinct possibility. 

No it wasn’t, and no it isn’t.

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

No it wasn’t, and no it isn’t.

This may look like a trough, but it actually wasn't. Just a bunch of onshore flow that globbed together and moved inland. Affecting only the mysterious foglands, of course.

gfs_z500a_namer_1.thumb.png.1d30baa32b2e2f3dcaab17d6fa227a24.png

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