TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: This ridging could also be a head fake or get watered down. Still hope. I’m totally fine if we torch for the next three weeks because nothing much in the way of winter weather happens down this way historically until late November anyway. 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: I was hoping for wet candy! I believe Wet Candy was an adult film star back in the mid 1980’s, INCLUDING November 1985. 1 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said: Yeah the weathers looking good always love to get some camping in during off-season times. I’ve always been nervous about using those propane heaters in tents too…probably a good thing you kept opening the tent. I’ve never used one I just have a 0 degree sleeping bag and on nights when it got down to the upper 20s it’s been fine for me. The general rule is add 10-15 degrees to the ratings to know where you'll actually stay comfortable. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: This ridging could also be a head fake or get watered down. Still hope. Probably not a head fake this time. Or at least less of one compared to last time, in my opinion. Either way, given AAM removal/some other stuff, I think it’s a good bet we see the Pacific shut down in November with more GOA high/cold air loading. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I believe Wet Candy was an adult film star back in the mid 1980’s, INCLUDING November 1985. Now that's an ANALog 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: I’m totally fine if we torch for the next three weeks because nothing much in the way of winter weather happens down this way historically until late November anyway. It's like that here usually. The late November bomb low in 2019 was both my first snow and high wind event. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: We were discussing media sensationalism for that first storm on Thursday. Luckily, we got people like Scott out there doing their best to combat that clickbaity hype. Nothing about climate change being the cause? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: The general rule is add 10-15 degrees to the ratings to know where you'll actually stay comfortable. Yeah I doubt I would be too warm if it was 0 degrees outside but I’m sure it’d be fine if it was 15-20 degrees. I’m hoping we get some snow this winter want to head out to the island and do some snow camping and see how well my set up does. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 59 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: Ha, I just commented on the AR. It is very unlikely that we end up below-normal. You’re right. Tomorrow isn’t looking terribly impressive for rain though. It was once looking like quite a soaker. Medford was saying yesterday that this next one would be the wetter of the two. We shall see. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: We were discussing media sensationalism for that first storm on Thursday. Luckily, we got people like Scott out there doing their best to combat that clickbaity hype. Scott and Walter kelly are my favorite Mets here in the Seattle area. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Beautiful fall colors on the south fork Santiam Canyon right now! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Beautiful fall colors on the south fork Santiam Canyon right now! Pictures? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 12Z ECMWF... 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF... It dies in the ocean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF... Looks like Thursday system 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Looks like the euro upped the rain totals a bit atleast at my location. Rain has passed here radar doesn’t look too impressive behind this band. Up to 0.11” back at home. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Good Lord! The ECMWF is 942mb on this run. That is 27.82 inches for those keeping score. 1 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Max wind gusts for the entire 12Z ECMWF run... 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Phil said: Probably not a head fake this time. Or at least less of one compared to last time, in my opinion. Either way, given AAM removal/some other stuff, I think it’s a good bet we see the Pacific shut down in November with more GOA high/cold air loading. Yup. People need to remember that going into a ridgy pattern now would probably be a good sign. The screaming zonal option becomes less likely going forward. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Max wind gusts for the entire 12Z ECMWF run... That's a lot of wind off the coast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Max wind gusts for the entire 12Z ECMWF run... Pedestrian at best. This is kind of the perfect storm (pardon the pun) to make the media look really bad. The storm is incredibly powerful and yet the effect in the population centers will be nothing more than a typical fall storm. I'm sure my area, and probably yours, will have a decent blow, but nothing to write home about. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said: That's a lot of wind off the coast. Those wind speeds off the coast only last a few hours late on Sunday evening. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said: That's a lot of wind off the coast. The models have been advertising 80 to 90 MPH gusts well out there. Even that is less than you might expect from such a major deep storm. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Yikes. There's a story in the news about a ship off the WA Coast losing shipping containers from the rough seas. With the back up of freighters out there this could be a serious issue with this storm. More supply chain problems. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Pedestrian at best. This is kind of the perfect storm (pardon the pun) to make the media look really bad. The storm is incredibly powerful and yet the effect in the population centers will be nothing more than a typical fall storm. I'm sure my area, and probably yours, will have a decent blow, but nothing to write home about. Yeah... this type of storm is really bad for the NWS because the media is guaranteed to over-hype it and ignore the fact that the actual effects locally will be very minor. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Kind of interesting that even with the pattern shift coming the analogs are still much the same. 1970 and 1955 still showing up a lot, and a little bit of 2007. Kind of surprising that 1968 has been making a strong showing for days now. EDIT: Just noticed that 2008 is an analog to the 12z run. That one turned out pretty good! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Kind of interesting that even with the pattern shift coming the analogs are still much the same. 1970 and 1955 still showing up a lot, and a little bit of 2007. Kind of surprising that 1968 has been making a strong showing for days now. Those are like 4 of the snowiest winters on record here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Beautiful fall weather and fall colors on display today. I’m really lucking out on the weather with this trip! 8 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtep Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Raining pretty good here now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Currently getting a house visit from Dr. Izzle. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Currently getting a house visit from Dr. Izzle. Who's that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 23 minutes ago, iFred said: Probably only for an hour before going away. As you’ve been saying, total non event, probably for the coast as well. Everyone should stop talking about it or even sharing model runs. I didn't tell anyone to stop talking about it... or even hinted at that. I have been posting surface pressure maps too. It is a really interesting storm. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 19 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said: Beautiful fall weather and fall colors on display today. I’m really lucking out on the weather with this trip! That is a sweet view! 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 23 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said: Beautiful fall weather and fall colors on display today. I’m really lucking out on the weather with this trip! Go Bobcats! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 12Z EPS looks fairly zonal in the long range... which is usually wet in November. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 16 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Who's that? Ur mom. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Ur mom. Jesse? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: Max wind gusts for the entire 12Z ECMWF run... Wow North Bend may be the big winner… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said: Wow North Bend may be the big winner… Pretty likely given this going to be an east wind situation. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Somewhat off topic, but there has been lots of talk about the Atlantic current slowing or even shutting down in the news. What impact could that have on PNW weather? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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