PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking like first half of November is going to torch big time. 

Best time to do it.

[Timmy Supercell]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking like first half of November is going to torch big time. 

If we're getting mackerel sky sunsets, YUUGE analogs!!

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Nice to see

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

18z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Nice to see

Let's hope it materializes.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Dry springs followed by wet winters seem to create the highest fire danger.

[RentonHill]

11 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

18z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Nice to see

Looks fairly lubed up vs prior runs, or am I mistaken 

[Geos]

Warm enough today too have short sleeves on. Saw 62° in quite a few spots on the eastside. Now a good 5 to 7° cooler out.

[snow_wizard]

Some really dry air in place this evening.  Anywhere that's able to decouple could get pretty chilly indeed.

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, Geos said:

Warm enough today too have short sleeves on. Saw 62° in quite a few spots on the eastside. Now a good 5 to 7° cooler out.

It actually felt pretty good this afternoon.  Most places are dropping like a rock now.

I kind of like November in a case like this year.  If it's warm that's a great sign going forward, and if it's cold....I always like cold.  I think my wish for November would be plenty of mild weather, but with a period of cold zonal flow followed by a cold trough later on.

[RentonHill]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Some really dry air in place this evening.  Anywhere that's able to decouple could get pretty chilly indeed.

are you getting paid by the post or something 

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It actually felt pretty good this afternoon.  Most places are dropping like a rock now.

I kind of like November in a case like this year.  If it's warm that's a great sign going forward, and if it's cold....I always like cold.  I think my wish for November would be plenty of mild weather, but with a period of cold zonal flow followed by a cold trough later on.

So warm but cold?

[TT-SEA]

Its absolutely perfect out trick-or-treating with my daughter and her friends right now.  55 degrees and just the slightest breeze.   One of the most pleasant Halloween evenings we can remember.  My wife says this is the best one in our 17 years of trick-or-treating with our kids here.

[RentonHill]

I really wish we could see an r-squared or confidence rating for model runs. I know we can read between the lines by looking at consistency between runs and comparing ensembles v mean v deterministic etc. Maybe that type of simple output isnt really possible with weather models and forecasting and the finance nerd in me is just going to have to accept that. Plus i know there are like 100 other variables that go into specific location forecasting, and especially PNW where small differences can mean all or nothing for some locations due to rain shadow or convergence zones etc. 

What spurred this thought was looking at the meteograms for precip.....both EPS + GEFS are sort of all over the place on timing and amounts after monday night. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Nice sunset again tonight. Will be heading home tomorrow morning…had a great time but super sore and tired from all the hiking and sightseeing this weekend. Ready to head home hopefully I don’t have to wait tooooo long to get on a ferry in the morning. 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

Looks fairly lubed up vs prior runs, or am I mistaken 

[Gradient Keeper]

37 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

are you getting paid by the post or something 

Dang! 684? Looks like I have my work cut out for me, n stuff. Fairly soon I will hopefully be posting every 6h-12hr frame of every model run, and model trends (past 4-8 runs) of every 24 hour frame. I should be in the top 3 at least.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful evening. 

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Dang! 684? Looks like I have my work cut out for me, n stuff. Fairly soon I will hopefully be posting every 6h-12hr frame of every model run, and model trends (past 4-8 runs) of every 24 hour frame. I should be in the top 3 at least.

95% of your posts have maps, you have my full endorsement to post as much as you want for the 9/10 people on here who probably dont post at all and definitely dont have a sub anywhere. 

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Beautiful evening. 

Quite windy here, and today it has a bit more bite to it, more brisk n stuff. Very enjoyable.

 

Let's play a game. Post how many kids you've had trick or treating, and every time a new kid(s) does so you have to post the updated tally as well..... and GO!

 

I'm at 1 kid so far in a Spider-Man costume.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking like first half of November is going to torch big time. 

I'm far from sure about that.  The ensemble mean is below normal a good part of the time.  At least that's the case for SEA.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Quite windy here, and today it has a bit more bite to it, more brisk n stuff. Very enjoyable.

 

Let's play a game. Post how many kids you've had trick or treating, and every time a new kid(s) does so you have to post the updated tally as well..... and GO!

 

I'm at 1 kid so far in a Spider-Man costume.

We've had two groups so far for a total of about 10.  Way more than last year for the entire evening.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Got up to 57°F today. Now 46°F. That’s 4 degrees cooler than yesterday at this time — and there was a freeze this morning.

[TacomaWaWx]

46 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

are you getting paid by the post or something 

Lol tims not in the lead! 

[T-Town]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We've had two groups so far for a total of about 10.  Way more than last year for the entire evening.  

This is our fifth halloween in this house and we are at zero trick or treaters all time. No sidewalks, no streetlights, almost no kids in the neighborhood. 

[T-Town]

Some sunset pics and also a ship. 

[TacomaWaWx]

4 minutes ago, T-Town said:

This is our fifth halloween in this house and we are at zero trick or treaters all time. No sidewalks, no streetlights, almost no kids in the neighborhood. 

Hardly ever get any trick or treaters in my neighborhood either. Haven’t been in Tacoma for Halloween the last 3 years but even before that usually don’t see any. 

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Some sunset pics and also a ship. 

Wow that shot of the ship looks really clear even with it zoomed in. I gotta upgrade my phone. 

[T-Town]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Hardly ever get any trick or treaters in my neighborhood either. Haven’t been in Tacoma for Halloween the last 3 years but even before that usually don’t see any. 

Aren’t you in the Proctor area?  That’s kind of surprising.

[T-Town]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Wow that shot of the ship looks really clear even with it zoomed in. I gotta upgrade my phone. 

Yeah the camera on this phone is really something. 

[BLI snowman]

31 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Quite windy here, and today it has a bit more bite to it, more brisk n stuff. Very enjoyable.

 

Let's play a game. Post how many kids you've had trick or treating, and every time a new kid(s) does so you have to post the updated tally as well..... and GO!

 

I'm at 1 kid so far in a Spider-Man costume.

Zero here for the 2nd straight year.

 

[The Blob]

Really great night for trick or treating. And I'm not stuck at work because my car wants to vomit coolant.

[T-Town]

#willpower

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Zero here for the 2nd straight year.

 

Virus fears seem as bad as last year, surprisingly. A few houses literally roped off their driveways with “no Halloween because of covid” signs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

52 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Quite windy here, and today it has a bit more bite to it, more brisk n stuff. Very enjoyable.

 

Let's play a game. Post how many kids you've had trick or treating, and every time a new kid(s) does so you have to post the updated tally as well..... and GO!

 

I'm at 1 kid so far in a Spider-Man costume.

0. Every year. We go to silverton to trick or treat. It was a madhouse on snob hill. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Virus fears seem as bad as last year, surprisingly. A few houses literally roped off their driveways with “no Halloween because of covid” signs.

Haha wow. There were a few people wearing masks, but that was the worst of it. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

7 minutes ago, T-Town said:

#willpower

Diverse your portfolio! Get some gummy bears and Skittles! 

 

Side note.... Down to 30 pieces of candy left. Kids have been coming in huge groups in Kent. Easily had 100-150 kids already

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Virus fears seem as bad as last year, surprisingly. A few houses literally roped off their driveways with “no Halloween because of covid” signs.

Wow that's just pathetically ridiculous. What a shame if anyone chooses to live in fear and paranoia. NOPE!

00z GFS in 37 minutes

[Fircrest]

55 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Quite windy here, and today it has a bit more bite to it, more brisk n stuff. Very enjoyable.

 

Let's play a game. Post how many kids you've had trick or treating, and every time a new kid(s) does so you have to post the updated tally as well..... and GO!

 

I'm at 1 kid so far in a Spider-Man costume.

Ok, reporting from Fircrest, we have had 45 show up so far. We have had as many as 100 kids on some Halloweens in the past.  Popular area I guess.

[RentonHill]

Up to 5 now, mostly older kids who are on a mission. All good costumes/effort, which is nice. When I was 12/13 I basically put a mask on and that was it, one time I just put my ski goggles on. I’m not that old but man I would have really hated my teenage self 

[Gradient Keeper]

We ended up with 1 kid. ONE! and after that little Spider-Man went around my cul-de-sac from house to house, 2 of my neighbors turned off their porch lights, so it's very dark now on my street and that's likely why no additional Goblins and Ghouls showed up!

00z ECMWF in 2 hours 44 minutes