PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z and 00z seem wet in the long range. The whining works again. 

With these very deep troughs precip is always a tough call.  Just depends how they dig.

[TacomaWaWx]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Talk about interesting.  I was just looking at the monthly temperature averages for SEA and realized they just narrowly missed being warmer than September 1967 last year.  If not for the smoke from the fires there is little doubt last September would have dethroned 1967 for the warmest September on record.  There was so much going on last year I hadn't even realized the month was THAT warm.

Last September was pretty nuts. Hot at times…lots of smoke after one of the most anomalous east windstorms ever…and a crazy smoke inversion then decently wet in the second half with thunderstorms. One of the smoke inversion days held us in the 50s and just 2 days prior it hit 85. 

[GHweatherChris]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No I didn't.  

Mm, k.

[TacomaWaWx]

Mariners get 90 wins for the first time since 2003 analogs anyone? 

[SouthHillFrosty]

REFUSE TO LOSE. I believe!! GAME 162 LETS GOOOOOOO

[ShawniganLake]

12 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Mariners get 90 wins for the first time since 2003 analogs anyone? 

Mild October that year. With a devastating AR mid month. Nope,  Toss it out. This October is going to be very cold. 

[TacomaWaWx]

7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Mild October that year. With a devastating AR mid month. Nope,  Toss it out. This October is going to be very cold. 

Was a beast! Only thing I’ve seen close to it in the last couple years was the rainstorm during December 2019 that was also a pretty big soaking. 

[snow_wizard]

The 0z GFS is going for ridiculously low max temps on both Tuesday and Friday.  It shows some places could struggle to reach 50 on both days.

[snow_wizard]

52 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Was a beast! Only thing I’ve seen close to it in the last couple years was the rainstorm during December 2019 that was also a pretty big soaking. 

And then for an encore we had a wicked shot of cold air after the flooding that turned the leaves on the trees black.  Never seen anything like that before or since.

[snow_wizard]

That is one impressive cold front late in the run on the ECMWF.  Really cold 850s for this time of year.

0z temps on day 9 are in the upper 40s.  Wow!

[snow_wizard]

Incredibly cold ECMWF run with another cold trough digging down on us at day 10.

[Link]

3 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

There’s rain on the models…there’s no 2 week dry streak coming. I get it there’s definitely been drought concerns it’s real I’ve been talking about it all summer long too. But honestly some of y’all sound a bit dramatic to me. Recent rains have significantly helped…fire seasons over the rain is returning. It’s not just going to be dry forever and ever in the winter time too. After all the rain we’ve just had and this is on the models what is there to complain about honestly? 

The top one is like a couple men spitting into my rain gauge. I'd like a moderate rain event once every two weeks. We are so far behind in rain we are as dry as Redmond.  3 inches of rain since Feb 18th and not much rain before that then spits and spots here and there.  Mostly there: 

 Without the Feb storm we would've had way less then what we got. We went to Lebanon just before the rains and it was SUPER SUPER dusty and I saw a dustnado try to form.  The ground was cracked in a lot of places which it looked literally like Fresno in August.  

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Incredibly cold ECMWF run with another cold trough digging down on us at day 10.

I imagine Tim is crying in a closet right about now.

[Link]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I imagine Tim is crying in a closet right about now.

Like I said before if you look at who's recently posted without even reading the dam page you can deduce what way the models went.  The 'puke' runs it's usually Tim and Phil then on cold runs Snow shows up like out of nowhere.  Both take turns in the same closet! Is it fun in there or something? I hope they don't find the small mysterious padlocked door.................................. 

[Link]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I imagine Tim is crying in a closet right about now.

I hope he didn't find the mysterious small padlocked door.   

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like another cold October is in the works. Kiss of death south of Albany.

[snow_wizard]

I just put together a short list of years that fit the following criteria.  

1. One of the 25 coldest Octobers on record back to 1895 for the Puget Sound Lowlands.

2. Cold ENSO

Quite an amazing list and all of these winters delivered.

1908 - Wicked cold January and all around cold winter.

1916 - Persistently cold winter with snow

1949 - Well...you know...

1950 - Respectably cold January and amazing cold / snowy March

1956 - Persistently cold winter with a cold / snowy January

1970 - Chilly winter with a good amount of lowland snow.  Very major winter in north WA interior.

1971 - Recurrent cold / snowy weather with a major snowstorm and Arctic blast in late January in much of Western WA.

1984 - Persistent cold with snow in December and February.

The key is these were all solidly cold Octobers with cold ENSO.  It remains to be seen how cold this month will be, but it certainly has a shot at being top 10%.

 

[ShawniganLake]

22 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just put together a short list of years that fit the following criteria.  

1. One of the 25 coldest Octobers on record back to 1895 for the Puget Sound Lowlands.

2. Cold ENSO

Quite an amazing list and all of these winters delivered.

1908 - Wicked cold January and all around cold winter.

1916 - Persistently cold winter with snow

1949 - Well...you know...

1950 - Respectably cold January and amazing cold / snowy March

1956 - Persistently cold winter with a cold / snowy January

1970 - Chilly winter with a good amount of lowland snow.  Very major winter in north WA interior.

1971 - Recurrent cold / snowy weather with a major snowstorm and Arctic blast in late January in much of Western WA.

1984 - Persistent cold with snow in December and February.

The key is these were all solidly cold Octobers with cold ENSO.  It remains to be seen how cold this month will be, but it certainly has a shot at being top 10%.

 

Only 1 winter in the past 50 years made the cut and even it was 37 years ago.  

[The Blob]

An Oregon group I'm in on Facebook were posting pictures of wooly bears and everyone kept saying it looks like we'll have a winter this year. 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, The Blob said:

An Oregon group I'm in on Facebook were posting pictures of wooly bears and everyone kept saying it looks like we'll have a winter this year. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Link said:

Like I said before if you look at who's recently posted without even reading the dam page you can deduce what way the models went.  The 'puke' runs it's usually Tim and Phil then on cold runs Snow shows up like out of nowhere.  Both take turns in the same closet! Is it fun in there or something? I hope they don't find the small mysterious padlocked door.................................. 

Uh, I’m not in the Tim camp at all. I don’t enjoy a landscape of fire and brimstone.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I just put together a short list of years that fit the following criteria.  

1. One of the 25 coldest Octobers on record back to 1895 for the Puget Sound Lowlands.

2. Cold ENSO

Quite an amazing list and all of these winters delivered.

1908 - Wicked cold January and all around cold winter.

1916 - Persistently cold winter with snow

1949 - Well...you know...

1950 - Respectably cold January and amazing cold / snowy March

1956 - Persistently cold winter with a cold / snowy January

1970 - Chilly winter with a good amount of lowland snow.  Very major winter in north WA interior.

1971 - Recurrent cold / snowy weather with a major snowstorm and Arctic blast in late January in much of Western WA.

1984 - Persistent cold with snow in December and February.

The key is these were all solidly cold Octobers with cold ENSO.  It remains to be seen how cold this month will be, but it certainly has a shot at being top 10%.

 

This is a swing and a miss. You have to demonstrate that Niña/cold October is statistically more likely to precede a cold winter than Niña/warm October (hint: the ratio of warm/cold Niña Octobers to cold winters is roughly equal).

Instead you’ve cherry picked 8 years *out of the last 150* that fit your desired criteria. You’re merely re-printing La Niña climo (and climate change, considering all of these occurred at least 50 years ago, minus 1984 which was a post-volcanic winter).

What about the other 17 top-25 coldest Octobers that you didn’t mention? What about the multitude of Niña/warm October years that preceded cold/snowy winters out there (1988/89 and 2010/11 being just 2 examples of many)?

If you don’t believe me, I’ll run through all Niña Octobers since 1850, yet again. I’ve only done it every year for the past decade.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, iFred said:

Some people can’t accept and cope with the fact we’re going to have a mild and zonal winter.

Maybe this will assuage those fears.

2nd strongest SSW signal on the seasonal ECMWF since its inception. Strongest signal was 2008/09, the other three notable cases were 2016/17, 2017/18, and 2006/07. All of these winters performed in the PNW region.

On the contrary, the strong-PV projections tended to result in crappy winters in the West (2012/13, 2015/16, 2019/20, 2004/05, 1994/95, etc).

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Phil said:

Maybe this will cure those fears.

2nd strongest SSW signal on the seasonal ECMWF since its inception. Strongest signal was 2008/09, the other three notable cases were 2016/17, 2017/18, and 2006/07. All of these winters performed in the PNW region.

On the contrary, the strong-PV projections tended to result in crappy winters in the West (2012/13, 2015/16, 2019/20, 2004/05, 1994/95, etc).

Wow. Those are some great years.

[crf450ish]

This place never ceases to entertain me. Especially going into fall-winter. 

 

The real show begins at the end of February, particularly when winter didn't deliver the goods. 

 

 

Thank God March holds the wildcard

[Meatyorologist]

06z is full-on Niña. NW onshore flow with plenty of cold nights and chilly days. Even throws in a few highs around 45. December weather in October. Classic -ENSO.

[Meatyorologist]

[jcmcgaffey]

7 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Was a beast! Only thing I’ve seen close to it in the last couple years was the rainstorm during December 2019 that was also a pretty big soaking. 

I remember 2003 and people kayaking down Westlake Ave out front of my office.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

Maybe this will assuage those fears.

2nd strongest SSW signal on the seasonal ECMWF since its inception. Strongest signal was 2008/09, the other three notable cases were 2016/17, 2017/18, and 2006/07. All of these winters performed in the PNW region.

On the contrary, the strong-PV projections tended to result in crappy winters in the West (2012/13, 2015/16, 2019/20, 2004/05, 1994/95, etc).

94-95 actually had a couple nice lowland snow events in the Portland area. 2017-18 was okay, January really sucked. I’d be good with 2006-07 but something like 2016-17 would be awesome. 

[MossMan]

Drizzling and 52 currently. 

[The Swamp]

Jim are you going to be able to keep this up all winter?  My god you are in rare form.

I'll pray for you.  Don't let your mentals get the better of you.

I mean yeah, some of the models show some cooler weather but fawning over a high temp of 50?  Pace yourself big guy.

[TacomaWaWx]

Got down to 53 this morning. Really nice euro run last night. 

[TacomaWaWx]

11 minutes ago, ..... said:

Jim are you going to be able to keep this up all winter?  My god you are in rare form.

I'll pray for you.  Don't let your mentals get the better of you.

I mean yeah, some of the models show some cooler weather but fawning over a high temp of 50?  Pace yourself big guy.

Any type of negative anomaly is exciting for jim. That’s just his thing nothing wrong with that. There are some fairly chilly by October standards fronts shown on the euro and gfs through day 10. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

      ⋮

1950 - Respectably cold January and amazing cold / snowy March

      ⋮

And there it is. You can tell when the wet season is upon us when Jim starts posting about how 1950 is an analog for this year.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

10 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z and 00z seem wet in the long range. The whining works again. 

It didn’t work unless it verifies. We’re talking >300 hours out. 

[ShawniganLake]

20 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And there it is. You can tell when the wet season is upon us when Jim starts posting about how 1950 is an analog for this year.

The winter of ‘49 was actually the “big one”

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 hours ago, Phil said:

Maybe this will assuage those fears.

2nd strongest SSW signal on the seasonal ECMWF since its inception. Strongest signal was 2008/09, the other three notable cases were 2016/17, 2017/18, and 2006/07. All of these winters performed in the PNW region.

On the contrary, the strong-PV projections tended to result in crappy winters in the West (2012/13, 2015/16, 2019/20, 2004/05, 1994/95, etc).

I'll take one 16-17 to go please.

[BLI snowman]

49 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And there it is. You can tell when the wet season is upon us when Jim starts posting about how 1950 is an analog for this year.

1950-51 though. Not quite as flabbergastingly awesome but still a dated and unlikely parallel to today.

[The Blob]

7 hours ago, Deweydog said:

I'll take a can of that with a side of '16-'17 winter

[The Blob]

I think my patents went back home yesterday. May have been a mistake since it's predicted to be 98 there.

[MossMan]

Up to .02” on the day. 

[TacomaWaWx]

0.01” so far here. 

[Timmy Supercell]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Drizzling and 52 currently. 

I'm tired of this 24/7 clear and that bright orb in the sky.

[snow_wizard]

8 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Only 1 winter in the past 50 years made the cut and even it was 37 years ago.  

That would make it happening this year a really big deal.  Right now the chances are pretty decent of it happening.  The model runs are kind of OMG right now.  The 12z GFS is going for highs in the mid 40s on Wednesday of next week for the Seattle area.  That would be absolute top tier cold for so early.

[snow_wizard]

7 hours ago, Phil said:

This is a swing and a miss. You have to demonstrate that Niña/cold October is statistically more likely to precede a cold winter than Niña/warm October (hint: the ratio of warm/cold Niña Octobers to cold winters is roughly equal).

Instead you’ve cherry picked 8 years *out of the last 150* that fit your desired criteria. You’re merely re-printing La Niña climo (and climate change, considering all of these occurred at least 50 years ago, minus 1984 which was a post-volcanic winter).

What about the other 17 top-25 coldest Octobers that you didn’t mention? What about the multitude of Niña/warm October years that preceded cold/snowy winters out there (1988/89 and 2010/11 being just 2 examples of many)?

If you don’t believe me, I’ll run through all Niña Octobers since 1850, yet again. I’ve only done it every year for the past decade.

I'm going to do a similar look at the coldest Octobers with a Nina from 1960 to present later today and see how that looks.  I think the key is the scope of how cold the October in question is.  Sharply cold ones seem to be much more meaningful than just somewhat cold ones.

I don't see what is wrong about screening the coldest Octobers through the cold ENSO mesh.  It's kind of germane to what we are seeing this season.

[snow_wizard]

6 hours ago, Phil said:

Maybe this will assuage those fears.

2nd strongest SSW signal on the seasonal ECMWF since its inception. Strongest signal was 2008/09, the other three notable cases were 2016/17, 2017/18, and 2006/07. All of these winters performed in the PNW region.

On the contrary, the strong-PV projections tended to result in crappy winters in the West (2012/13, 2015/16, 2019/20, 2004/05, 1994/95, etc).

That is pretty exciting stuff.  2008-09 and 2016-17 were really solid winters.  January 2007 was a real gem (by 21st century standards) here.

[snow_wizard]

5 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

06z is full-on Niña. NW onshore flow with plenty of cold nights and chilly days. Even throws in a few highs around 45. December weather in October. Classic -ENSO.

Almost more like classic 1945 to early 1970s -ENSO.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, ..... said:

Jim are you going to be able to keep this up all winter?  My god you are in rare form.

I'll pray for you.  Don't let your mentals get the better of you.

I mean yeah, some of the models show some cooler weather but fawning over a high temp of 50?  Pace yourself big guy.

I've had a really good feeling about this one for months now.  I was really digging spring too, but could have done without some of the heat in early to mid summer.  This coming pattern is not business as usual.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW worth I have a longtime friend (going on 40 years) who can vouch for the fact I have always been wild about cold Octobers.  He says when October is cold he knows there is a good chance things are going to get serious.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

FWIW worth I have a longtime friend (going on 40 years) who can vouch for the fact I have always been wild about cold Octobers.  He says when October is cold he knows there is a good chance things are going to get serious.

Well... that settles it once and for all.