I was about to say, isn't the GFS's whole big idea with the ridge next week that the GOA troughing will bomb out well upstream and pump up a ridge? Seems like classic Springtime GFS cutoff bias in the GOA.
GFS/GEFS definitely on its own now that the 18z ICON has moved towards the Euro/CMC solution. But again, a broken clock is right twice a day, so who knows.
That said, I’d never trust the GFS/GEFS to properly handle NPAC ULLs during the spring months.
So insane how some of the coldest anomalies on earth exist exactly where we want them. Amidst a really hot planet and a (now dead) Niño, we've been amazingly spared over the last six months.
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