November 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Money]

GEM looks like it has some sort of wave that's a bit farther south than the GFS but way north of 12z EURO. Looks like snow for northern Iowa, Southern Minny and southern/central WI.

[Maxim]

it's trending north, no surprises there.

[OKwx2k4]

Thought I'd share this:

 

BUF NWS says cold is coming.

 

 

 

GENUINE COLD WEATHER HAS BEEN TOUGH TO COME BY SO FAR THIS FALL...

AS THE COMBINATION OF SEVERAL GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS HAVE GENERALLY

KEPT ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR LOCKED NORTH OF 60N. A STRONG PACIFIC

JET...TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG TO MODERATE EL NINO EVENTS...

HAS BEEN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FACTOR IN BLOCKING ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD

AIR INTRUSIONS UP TO THIS POINT. THIS RESULTED IN NEAR NORMAL

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS

THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS MONTH. THIS PATTERN MAY BE SHOWING SIGNS

OF BREAKING DOWN THOUGH.

 

 

 

SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS SIBERIA HAS LIKELY HELPED TO INTENSIFY

THE COLD AIR OVER THAT REGION...AND NOW SEVERAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE

PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THIS COLD AIR MAY SOON BE ON

THE MOVE. AFTER MORE THAN SIX WEEKS OF A PREDOMINANTLY POSITIVE NAO

WITH PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...MEDIUM TO

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT BLOCKING MAY FINALLY SET UP

OVER THAT REGION WHILE WEST COAST RIDGING SETS UP OFF NORTH AMERICA.

THIS WOULD RESULT IN A DEEP TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA THAT WOULD

ENCOURAGE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR TO CROSS THE NORTHERN

LATITUDES OF THE CONTINENT...POSSIBLY TAKING AIM ON THE U.S. PLAINS.

 

 

 

THIS SCENARIO WOULD NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL LATER THANKSGIVING WEEK OR

THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...BUT IT IS THE FIRST TIME THAT IT IS BEING

STRONGLY SUGGESTED BY SO MANY OF THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS ALL

PANS OUT."

[jaster220]

Been outside today all day long taking care of things around the house.  Only about half way done...round 2 tomorrow!  12z Euro still shows a stripe of 2-5" snow for parts of N IA/S WI/N MI next Saturday with a nice punch of arctic air that weekend.  Daytime high temps next Sunday/Monday are in the mid/upper 20's from NE/IA/S WI and points north.

 

Of more significance, I was waiting for either the GFS/Euro to pick up on a pre-Thanksgiving system and the Euro on Day 10 is showing signs of something Big.  The model has over-running snows falling from NE/IA/MN/Dakotas next Tuesday.  Utilizing the Bearing Sea Rule/East Asia Theory, both long range forecasting methods had a large system.  Something to keep an eye on.

 

 

Been busy, map(s) by any chance of this system @ 240-ish hrs out?

[gosaints]

GFS and EURO now both hinting at a relatively nice thankgiving weekend

[Tony]

It's hard to believe that this could happen this weekend after such nice Fall weather. I am not ready for this and don't want this just yet. Hopefully the 12z GFS is wrong.

[james1976]

Wow, the GFS is all over the place on location and timing of that wave.

[james1976]

Also showing a huge storm just after Thanksgiving. That's a long ways out yet but its been hinting at a storm around Thanksgiving for a while now.

[gosaints]

Also showing a huge storm just after Thanksgiving. That's a long ways out yet but its been hinting at a storm around Thanksgiving for a while now.

Ya stuff could line up around that time frame for something good before the EPO goes back positive

[bud2380]

might be time to start a thread for Friday's system.  Here is the latest Euro at 15:1 ratios, that's just what I clicked on, so know this is a tad high in all likelihood.

 

http://i.imgur.com/UhnRdGE.png

[gabel23]

might be time to start a thread for Friday's system.  Here is the latest Euro at 15:1 ratios, that's just what I clicked on, so know this is a tad high in all likelihood.

 

http://i.imgur.com/UhnRdGE.png

Can you repost, the map isn't showing up?! Thanks! 

[NEJeremy]

Can you repost, the map isn't showing up?! Thanks! 

Gabel- it shows only 1" for Nebraska and about 2" for the IA/NE border near Sioux City and northeast Nebraska. Increases to 4-6" for central Iowa on east. Not sure why it isn't showing up for you though....

[OKwx2k4]

Heckuva cold shot on the 12z to close out November and December.

[gosaints]

Hard to believe that the average high temp around here is 36 by this time next week.  

[james1976]

What is GGEM showing for this Friday?

[gosaints]

What is GGEM showing for this Friday?

Inch of slop

[Maxim]

Quite a volatile pattern to say the least.

 

[GDR]

Doesn't matter if it snows much this weekend because soil temps are warm enough so it won't stick for long.

[WBadgersW]

GFS still has a decent size storm for this weekend.

[Geos]

I've seen a lot of snow stick on the ground this time of month before. It's supposed to warm up closer to T-Day, so that's when most of the snow will melt. The early snows do compact quite a bit.

 

If the 12z runs still have system tomorrow, then that would be a good time for a separate thread.

[westMJim]

With a good amount of sun shine the high made it up to 65° here in Grand Rapids. That will be good for 4th place for November 16th and it was the warmest November 16th in Grand Rapids since 1954. The record high temp here in GR for this date is 68 set in 1896 in second place is 67 in 1931 and that third place of 66 in 1954.

[gosaints]

18z gfs prolly on crack in long range

[james1976]

Cant believe there is no talk of 18z GFS for Friday. Looks like quite the snow maker for some of us.
Also showing all kinds of storminess the entire Thanksgiving weekend but temps are too warm for snow. What a bummer that would be if it verified.

[FV-Mike]

18z gfs prolly on crack in long range

I thought you "love" tracking snow systems

[Iowa2015]

Quite abit of moisture around Friday night Saturday only thing i see as a major disadvantage is the ground still warm snow may have a tough time sticking Around thanksgiving still quite abit of moisture but temperatures looking to warm for snow. Yesterday it was bitter cold & dry we just need a middle ground Cold plus Moisture we're be golden.

[Maxim]

Gfs has a MUCH different look in the long range, wow...

[gosaints]

I thought you "love" tracking snow systems

Actually do. I was speaky of the torch...

[Maxim]

The GFS is good at picking up large-scale pattern changes in the long range, so I wouldn't immediately discount it.

[GDR]

GFS looking warmer and warmer in the long range.

[CentralNebWeather]

My county phelps is in a tornado warning until 8:45 pm on November 16. Counties southwest of me have been in tornado warnings then will switch to blizzard warnings. Amazing.

[Tom]

Been a busy few days and finally getting caught up with all the new info coming in today.  It's the first day both the GFS/EURO nearly have an exact track/idea on the Fri/Sat system.  Both seem to be timing it out as a Friday night event around here and E IA/N IN which would help with accumulations.

 

Geo's, if its still showing on tomorrow's 12z runs...Fire up a new Thread.

 

Euro still maintains a -EPO through Thanksgiving week which would suggest a colder look.  It's 12z run had -15/-20C (daytime temps in single digits) creeping across the leeward side of the Rockies into MT/Dakotas with the looks of another "cutter" type system in the making....FWIW, it has a neutral AO/NAO during this period.

 

Euro ensembles look very cold for the Plains from the 25th-30th, not as bad farther east towards the Midwest/Lakes but still below normal.

 

By Dec 1st, the Euro Weeklies begin to see the trough building farther off the NW NAMER coast unlike earlier this month where it was right on the western Canadian coastline.  This is crucial bc that means the model is going to where most global models are placing the main trough south of the Aleutians (farther west off the coast) which won't pump the lower 48 with a torch in December.  CFSv2 is also seeing this main trough forming in the same vicinity and also it's seeing ridging in Central Canada...hint hint.  The first week of December doesn't look to be real cold as I think it may be signaling a transitory week before the Alaskan ridge builds back and we see it go to a classic stormy look with plenty of cold air around from the blocking.

 

East Asian Theory has been excellent thus far and I don't see any problem with it looking out farther towards December.  Look at what happens in Eurasia Day 6-15...Siberian Express with storm systems galore.  Another possible re-curving Typhoon that sets off the pattern...it looks to get blocked up in the extended which will more than likely influence our pattern down stream as we open December, esp I think after Dec 3-5th.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111618/gfs_mslpa_sd_wpac_32.png

[Geos]

Was just looking at surface temps for Saturday - after the snowstorm. Middle of the day predicted highs in the 20s!

 

[Tom]

Haven't seen a 2 week CPC map like this in a very long time...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

Some above normal precip with colder air around...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

[Maxim]

Was just looking at surface temps for Saturday - after the snowstorm. Middle of the day predicted highs in the 20s!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111618/gfs_T2m_us_21.png

Overdone I'd say, low 30s seem more realistic.

[Geos]

Good lord, I just saw the lows for next Sunday morning! Yes, probably overdone.

 

[Tom]

00z GFS still on board for Fri/Sat...debating if I should go to AZ or not...decisions...don't want to miss our first snow!

 

[james1976]

Great run! Tom, is that storm total?

[james1976]

00z GFS still on board for Fri/Sat...debating if I should go to AZ or not...decisions...don't want to miss our first snow!

Maybe wait another day to decide to go to AZ haha

[Geos]

@ Tom, if this is the snowfall map still on Wednesday, I would definitely be staying local until after the storm!

Another map

 

[OKwx2k4]

Been a busy few days and finally getting caught up with all the new info coming in today. It's the first day both the GFS/EURO nearly have an exact track/idea on the Fri/Sat system. Both seem to be timing it out as a Friday night event around here and E IA/N IN which would help with accumulations.

 

Geo's, if its still showing on tomorrow's 12z runs...Fire up a new Thread.

 

Euro still maintains a -EPO through Thanksgiving week which would suggest a colder look. It's 12z run had -15/-20C (daytime temps in single digits) creeping across the leeward side of the Rockies into MT/Dakotas with the looks of another "cutter" type system in the making....FWIW, it has a neutral AO/NAO during this period.

 

Euro ensembles look very cold for the Plains from the 25th-30th, not as bad farther east towards the Midwest/Lakes but still below normal.

 

By Dec 1st, the Euro Weeklies begin to see the trough building farther off the NW NAMER coast unlike earlier this month where it was right on the western Canadian coastline. This is crucial bc that means the model is going to where most global models are placing the main trough south of the Aleutians (farther west off the coast) which won't pump the lower 48 with a torch in December. CFSv2 is also seeing this main trough forming in the same vicinity and also it's seeing ridging in Central Canada...hint hint. The first week of December doesn't look to be real cold as I think it may be signaling a transitory week before the Alaskan ridge builds back and we see it go to a classic stormy look with plenty of cold air around from the blocking.

 

East Asian Theory has been excellent thus far and I don't see any problem with it looking out farther towards December. Look at what happens in Eurasia Day 6-15...Siberian Express with storm systems galore. Another possible re-curving Typhoon that sets off the pattern...it looks to get blocked up in the extended which will more than likely influence our pattern down stream as we open December, esp I think after Dec 3-5th.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111618/gfs_mslpa_sd_wpac_32.png

Been saying it and seeing this possible evolution coming for a long time. Yes, the coldest maps you will see at the fantasy ranges are most likely overdone (so are the warmest) but I still hold position that a torch December is looking less and less likely every day. So once again, follow the progression.