January 2019 Observations and Discussion

[gosaints]

I doubt anyone's mode (or mood for that matter) is hurt. As for his luck or lack of, he's just one person of known stature who's trying to improve very long range forecasting, aka seasonal forecasting, based on his experiences and knowledge of how various atmospheric players interact. Same with Dr. Judah Cohen and they both have endured their busts. Because those two professionals are taking a huge risk where others are not able or willing doesn't mean peeps should be critical when/if they fail. We all learn by trying and failing. Some would say that you aren't truly learning if you're not failing. Our own sub Moderator Tom has admitted to a miss with his expected turn to cold in December. JB is only one (of pretty much all known) LR guru's who went "winter of yore" cold and snowy for much of the E CONUS, yet the most hate seems to be directed towards one guy. That's not right.

Sorry for my typo....

 

JB goes winter of yore for the east pretty much all of the time...

 

And as far as vortex split forecasting goes, they have gotten pretty good at it.  What they are not good at is predicting which part of the globe it is going to impact.  Which is what in the end matters for sensible weather.

[Niko]

Its turning out to be a beautiful, sunny day w temps in the crisp 30s.

[Hawkeye]

JB goes winter of yore for the east pretty much all of the time...

 

JB's last two winter forecasts predicted normal temps in the south and east with slightly below normal from the western lakes to upper midwest... hardly winter of yore predictions.  Looking back farther, he certainly may have a pro-cold/anti-warm bias for the eastern half of the US, but that doesn't mean he's always pushing armageddon.

[gosaints]

JB's last two winter forecasts predicted normal temps in the south and east with slightly below normal from the western lakes to upper midwest... hardly winter of yore predictions.  Looking back farther, he certainly may have a pro-cold/anti-warm bias for the eastern half of the US, but that doesn't mean he's always pushing armageddon.

Quit reading his stuff years ago.  Though his twitter at glance has him fighting global warming in much different ways than in the past.

[hlcater]

Quit reading his stuff years ago.  Though his twitter at glance has him fighting global warming in much different ways than in the past.

Same. I can't stand JB. 

[Niko]

Pac Jet dominating strong amigos and no signs of it breaking down anytime soon. January may be lost as well. We just have to wait and see how much longer it will take. Yes, this is frustrating, but nothing we can do. Maybe we will get a snowy Feb and Mar, who knows.

 

TBH: Even in a bad pattern, snowstorms can errupt outta nowhere. Just have to get lucky in one of those situations I guess.

[Andie]

 

In other news, China's rover lands on the far side of the moon...the space race continues...wonder if they will ever show any evidence of bases on the "dark side"...

 

 

They'll probably find a closed GM Factory as so much commerce has gone to China

[Tom]

Just glanced at the Euro weeklies and it’s a sigh of relief to see the model transition back to winter later next week though mid Feb (end of run).

[Minny_Weather]

Just glanced at the Euro weeklies and it’s a sigh of relief to see the model transition back to winter later next week though mid Feb (end of run).

Didn't they predict a cold December as well? It's fun to look at but I'm not setting my heart on it.

[Tom]

Didn't they predict a cold December as well? It's fun to look at but I'm not setting my heart on it.

Not that I recall and I just flipped through some runs back in early/mid December that were cold for the second half of Dec and that obviously didn’t happen. There has been some consistency that the second half of Jan turns cold on the Euro weeklies for some time now. EPO, AO, NAO all seem to fit the idea. Well see.

[jaster220]

Sorry for my typo....

 

JB goes winter of yore for the east pretty much all of the time...

 

And as far as vortex split forecasting goes, they have gotten pretty good at it.  What they are not good at is predicting which part of the globe it is going to impact.  Which is what in the end matters for sensible weather.

 

That may be the case or just seem like the case since New England aka the Northeast has been a tear overall for about 2 decades now. You have to go way back to the 80's to find any muli-year dud winter stretches. The 90's did well and the 2000's even better. Look at last March for example and we all know what 14-15 did in Boston. Long Island's had like 4X the normal amount of Big Dog storms the past 20 yrs. I think it was for last winter somebody here made up a kind of tongue-in-cheek winter forecast map and it showed New England buried and said something like "same as every winter". Even if he misses 1 in 4 winters by a large margin, that's still pretty good as seasonal forecasting goes.

 

As for the PV split issue - agree 100%

[Niko]

Clear and seasonable currently w temps at 32F. Falling into the 20s tanite.

 

Looks like a rainstorm for the system early next week, followed by colder air behind it.

[Niko]

That may be the case or just seem like the case since New England aka the Northeast has been a tear overall for about 2 decades now. You have to go way back to the 80's to find any muli-year dud winter stretches. The 90's did well and the 2000's even better. Look at last March for example and we all know what 14-15 did in Boston. Long Island's had like 4X the normal amount of Big Dog storms the past 20 yrs. I think it was for last winter somebody here made up a kind of tongue-in-cheek winter forecast map and it showed New England buried and said something like "same as every winter". Even if he misses 1 in 4 winters by a large margin, that's still pretty good as seasonal forecasting goes.

 

As for the PV split issue - agree 100%

That was insane! Blizzard after blizzard after blizzard after blizzard.........

[Niko]

As mentioned from Stormhunter87 on his post above regarding the article, the "Polar Vortex"is splitting into 3 pieces, which is a great sign.  Patience is key here folks. I believe the pattern will look much better by the middle to late January and especially heading into February and into part of March. The MJO and SOI have been in unfavorable phases, but they eventually will get better for us to finally get some snowstorms kicking in here for a lot of our peeps in this subforum and also some intrusions of arctic airmasses that will stick around as well. In the meantime, lets all just sit back and get ready for some real Winter real soon.

[snowstorm83]

OKC had a nice heavy band of snow come through this evening after ice all day. Meanwhile temps were in the 50s this afternoon 450 miles north.

[GDR]

We need to wait a couple more weeks and then all heck is going to break loose. Just looking at the euro weeklies and we may still have an epic winter

[Tom]

Happy Friday all!  It's a good morning when you wake up and check the model data which has come in colder for Week 1-2 and more wintry.  The last 2 runs of the Euro are showcasing an interesting look for the next system on the calendar (11th/12) which may end up targeting the eastern portions of our sub.  Yesterday's 12z run was showing a major negative tilting trough up the OV and into SE Canada.  Last night, this major trough is now a bit farther west.  This is the only model showing 2 pieces of energy at this point, and a key southern piece coming up from the Gulf states and phasing with a northern piece.  Blocking is trending more prevalent across SE Canada which is a favorable blocking pattern for storms to cut up towards the GL's  I've seen this storm track several times in the Autumn.

 

These 500mb maps off the 00z Euro are intriguing....

 

 

 

 

 

 

While not a major snowstorm (yet?), future runs could get a lot better going forward.  As I mentioned before, models are going to begin digesting the blocking and this is likely when we will see some surprises.  Is this the 1st one???  Let's hope so for the sake of sanity.

 

Just for show, here are the 00z Euro and Control snow maps....

 

 

[Tom]

Looking deeper into the 00z EPS, I'm encouraged to see the model trend more favorable for winter wx as both the EPO/AO/NAO have all trended in the right direction.  There is a ton of blocking now showing up across Canada and Arctic regions which illustrates how quickly things can change.  Keeping that in mind, it can easily trend the other way, but to see nearly all the global models heading in the right direction, I'd say things are beginning to look a lot brighter. 

 

For instance, next weeks storm (7th-9th) is trending stronger across S Canada and tugging down an arctic shot on the Euro mid next week which other models may begin to show in today's 12z run.  This may set up more cold air in front of the next system (11th-12th).  There is a lot on the table that seems to be lining up in a favorable way later next week.

 

Edit:  The colder look around the 9th/10th certainly fits what my thinking was a few days ago when I looked at the GEFS surface pressure pattern which had an arctic connection bleeding cold into the lower 48.

 

 

 

00z EPS agrees...

 

[Tom]

As the storms continue to line up on the calendar, the potential large scale system that has a better potential to effect more of this sub is showing up in the long range on both the EPS/GEFS during the 15th-18th time frame.  Long ago, I saw the BSR and LRC line up together on this potential set up and both suggest a large scale storm system to develop in the S Plains and track towards the GL's/OV.  Based on the track this system took in late Dec, it suggests to me a cutter should evolve and my primary reason that by mid Jan the SER would play a big role.  Needless to say, the active period I've had ideas about evolving by mid January seem to be lining up.  Last night, I forgot to mention something about the Euro Weeklies.  For the 4th run in a row, it is showing a -PNA develop around the 16th through the end of January.  You can't ask for a better set up along with cold infiltrating the pattern before the 16th which models are now showcasing.  Gosh, could this be the light at the end of a longgg tunnel???  It seems like forever since we have actually had some encouraging signs to track winter storms.

 

 

[Stacsh]

37.9 was the low at my house with clear skies and a trace of snow on the ground in January lol.    Dropped to 34 the further inland I went.   Side/Country roads were frosted/ice.  Lots of cars slid off on my way to work.  People don't realize even though temps are above freezing the roads still iced up and off they went into the ditch on turns.   A lot of moisture near the ground.  

[Tom]

37.9 was the low at my house with clear skies and a trace of snow on the ground in January lol.    Dropped to 34 the further inland I went.   Side/Country roads were frosted/ice.  Lots of cars slid off on my way to work.  People don't realize even though temps are above freezing the roads still iced up and off they went into the ditch on turns.   A lot of moisture near the ground.  

I'd like to see what you have OTG by end of January....with LM so darn warm and nearly ice free, LES potential could pay big dividends for you and WestMJim.

[Tom]

My studies have shown that the models tend to have a more accurate portrayal of storm tracks/troughs/ridges if you look at the 10mb heights.  Last nights 00z GEFS is suggesting the SER by illustrating higher heights along the SE coast and a deep trough across Canada.  Folks, yet another example of how this LR tool can help figure out a pattern in the extended.  BTW, this screams brutal cold Week 1-2 to start bleeding into our sub forum.

[Stacsh]

I'd like to see what you have OTG by end of January....with LM so darn warm and nearly ice free, LES potential could pay big dividends for you and WestMJim.

 

LES changes as we get further into January/February due to Sun angle and what not.  Let's hope it comes sooner that later.  

[Tom]

LES changes as we get further into January/February due to Sun angle and what not.  Let's hope it comes sooner that later.  

I remember a couple years back, Chicago/MKE had a pretty big LES event on March 13th/14th.  I don't think the sun angle is a big deal in Jan/Feb, however, in March it's a different story as that snow that fell back them was nuked in a few days.

[westMJim]

37.9 was the low at my house with clear skies and a trace of snow on the ground in January lol.    Dropped to 34 the further inland I went.   Side/Country roads were frosted/ice.  Lots of cars slid off on my way to work.  People don't realize even though temps are above freezing the roads still iced up and off they went into the ditch on turns.   A lot of moisture near the ground.  

My walk yesterday was more like walking in March than January, At this time the sky is clear here and the low here at my house was 29.8 and it now is at 31.5 with a trace of snow and a lot of frost,

[Niko]

Beautiful, crisp sunny morning w a lot of frost around. Temps are at 30F.

[westMJim]

LES changes as we get further into January/February due to Sun angle and what not.  Let's hope it comes sooner that later.  

While most winters the bulk of lake effect is over by mid January and most years the lake has ice on it by this time. This year there is a pond where I walk and that has no ice on it. While every winter is different and can not say it will or even could happen this winter. . Not that long ago there was a winter season where the lake effect did not get started until mid January and continued into February.  In the winter of 2012/13 west Michigan did not have much snow in November and December (December had more than this year) December was warmer then this past December. and as of January 4^th 2013 the seasons total snow fall at Grand Rapids was just 7.8” and at Muskegon it was 8.6” and well to the east Lansing was only 4.0”  While not a major one there was a cool down on January 16^th and the rest of January Grand Rapids recorded 16.7” Muskegon 31.0” and Lansing only 5.9” so much of that snow should have been lake effect, In February 2013 while it was below average it was not by that much departures of -2 at Grand Rapids and Muskegon and -1.2 at Lansing.  Total snow fall for February 2013 Grand Rapids 33.1” Muskegon 53.3” and at Lansing the February total was just 14.1”

[Stacsh]

While most winters the bulk of lake effect is over by mid January and most years the lake has ice on it by this time. This year there is a pond where I walk and that has no ice on it. While every winter is different and can not say it will or even could happen this winter. . Not that long ago there was a winter season where the lake effect did not get started until mid January and continued into February.  In the winter of 2012/13 west Michigan did not have much snow in November and December (December had more than this year) December was warmer then this past December. and as of January 4^th 2013 the seasons total snow fall at Grand Rapids was just 7.8” and at Muskegon it was 8.6” and well to the east Lansing was only 4.0”  While not a major one there was a cool down on January 16^th and the rest of January Grand Rapids recorded 16.7” Muskegon 31.0” and Lansing only 5.9” so much of that snow should have been lake effect, In February 2013 while it was below average it was not by that much departures of -2 at Grand Rapids and Muskegon and -1.2 at Lansing.  Total snow fall for February 2013 Grand Rapids 33.1” Muskegon 53.3” and at Lansing the February total was just 14.1”

 

Didn't really take into account how warm it's been and the lakes are still very warm. 

 

 Headed for low to mid 40's with abundant sunshine today.  

[Niko]

Accu-Weather:

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/is-a-plunge-polar-vortex-in-store-for-northeastern-us-this-winter/70007048

[Clinton]

I'm really getting excited about the chances of a major storm in the KC area on the 12th.  In today blog by Gary Lezak he shows the 12z ICON and says if fits the LRC almost perfectly. 

[Stormhunter87]

Fv3 ramping up but yeah this model has been a let down this year.

[Clinton]

It'll be a while before I get too excited about the 12th.  But I will say that my recollection is that the ICON handled that storm best back when it hit us over the Thanksgiving weekend.  I wasn't even familiar with the ICON at that time, and so I was surprised to see it perform so well.  I seem to recall that the GFS and FV3 were both a bit too far north with their placement of that storm.  We'll see ...

Almost all the models were to far north all the way up to the event.  The NWS added 2 rows of counties on the southern edge of the blizzard warning as the snow began.  In the end the Euro, NAM, and ICON were the models that did the best.

[Niko]

Under sunny skies, my temp is now at 45F and it is expected to climb well into the 40s. Near 50 is not outta the question. Absolutely gorgeous outside.

[St Paul Storm]

Will likely break the high temp record today of 41F. Near full sun. Feels amazing.

[bud2380]

ICON one week from today

 

 

[james1976]

ICON one week from today

 

 

What direction it go from there?

[Clinton]

What direction it go from there?

In the last cycle it moved in to central Illinois and then went east.

[Tony]

ICON one week from today

 

 

Middle of January and rain...can't wait.

[bud2380]

What direction it go from there?

It only goes out that far.  Hour 180 is as far as it goes.  

[Niko]

My temps have now reached 50F w abundant sunshine. My forecast is calling now for highs between 50-53F. I knew this warmth (50s) w sunshine will happen for today and most likely more 50s for tomorrow.