[Missing] March 2022 PNW Wx Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensemble mean down to about -7C at PDX on the EURO. Quite a few members below -10C... Interesting.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Would be a nice change of pace from recent Marches which have been cooler than average but dry 

Noticed that with October. The coolest ones were too dry. 

[Omegaraptor]

Might ski at Crystal this spring break. To be determined! Hopefully we get some NW flow beforehand.

[Kayla]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

That is not fun.  Signs of spring all over here now... that warm rain event seems to have awaken the landscape.    Including the large buds now on the alder trees.

Beautiful! I'd post a pic of our current vegetation conditions here but it would probably give you nightmares!

Looking like another stretch of below zero weather here next week after near 60 degrees this week! Like I said, it's the extremes that have really worn on me this winter. Bring on the Summer green-up and thunderstorms!

[Kayla]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Found some signs of spring over by the fence line behind the shop... 

If that's not green then I don't know what is! If you want to see a barren landscape come to Bozeman right now. Such an ugly time of year. Nothing but dirty melting snow and brown dormant grass all-around!

Honestly looking forward to the snow tonight to cover everything back up again.

[The Ms. Anthrop]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

Andrew’s favorite model projects La Niña will intensify into the summer. That would be bizarre.

It would be ironic to go back to more of classical PNW summer; in the 90's it seemed that it it was raining and blah until July 5th (lol never the 4th, how many times were we setting off fireworks in the rain?) and only then would summer start. Temps averaging in the mid 70s, and 85 being a really hot day... man, if that happened again, so many people would be complaining that it's too cold!

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, The Ms. Anthrop said:

It would be ironic to go back to more of classical PNW summer; in the 90's it seemed that it it was raining and blah until July 5th (lol never the 4th, how many times were we setting off fireworks in the rain?) and only then would summer start. Temps averaging in the mid 70s, and 85 being a really hot day... man, if that happened again, so many people would be complaining that it's too cold!

Not sure if that was classic PNW summer... or just a temporary regime shift that happened when many older adults today were young so it sticks in people's minds as being normal.   During the first half of the 20th century there were many sunny, dry summers... and summer seemed to start earlier and end earlier back then.      Sort of like our recent shift to February being the most reliably cold winter month.    

Here is an example from 1905 from the Snoqualmie Falls station... summer did not start on July 5th back then.    Only a couple days with rain for most of June into July.   

[TT-SEA]

Just for fun... I checked the 4th of July stats from the 1990s out here and it did rain fairly frequently (half of the years).

There was rain on July 4th in:

1993

1995

1996

1998

1999

 

The years that were dry with high temp in parenthesis: 

1990  (79)

1991  (78)

1992  (76)

1994  (70)

1997  (78)

 

In the last 10 years (2012-2021) it has rained on July 4th just once... in 2016.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

47F with some light showers on occasion.

[MWG]

What a surprise temp went down to 37 as soon it started to rain and we had a brief rain/snow mix. 

[AlTahoe]

Current fire conditions in Redding. Is this Aug or March? We are screwed this spring/summer

 

[MWG]

36 and snow/rain mix but it’s very localized at the moment. Some parts you can see clear sky. 

[AlTahoe]

6 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Current fire conditions in Redding. Is this Aug or March? We are screwed this spring/summer

 

 

[MWG]

Just got home and seeing 37F at this time of the day and in March crazy to me after this past couple of months of dry intense heat
 

 

[Meatyorologist]

45 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

 

Part of the reason there’s some pyrocumulus in there is that the airmass swinging through is fairly cool. Hot, smoke laden parcells are more bouyant than usual, they rise faster and higher, cool to and condense at lower temperatures.

Not sure if that makes things any better though, considering that there is a wildfire burning in relatively cool weather…in March…

[TacomaWaWx]

49/40 today 0.05”. 

[Phil]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure if that was classic PNW summer... or just a temporary regime shift that happened when many older adults today were young so it sticks in people's minds as being normal.   During the first half of the 20th century there were many sunny, dry summers... and summer seemed to start earlier and end earlier back then.      Sort of like our recent shift to February being the most reliably cold winter month.    

Here is an example from 1905 from the Snoqualmie Falls station... summer did not start on July 5th back then.    Only a couple days with rain for most of June into July.   

That was an overexposed station, though. Be weary of those high temps.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

House sale officially closed yesterday! Woohoo!!

Currently in Buffalo, Wyoming for the night. Stopped at a gift shop in @Kayla's neck of the woods on our way here. Really liked the Bozeman area... Too bad it's so dang expensive! No can do-ie Louie.

Expecting some snow here overnight along the lines of 2-3 inches. We originally planned on stopping in Sheridan, WY but they are expected to get twice as much as Buffalo so hopefully this decision will help us get out to Rapid City more easily tomorrow. 

Also looks like models are starting to converge on a more snowy scenario for SF in the Wed/Thurs timeframe. 18z GFS showed 17.5 inches falling over 24-hours ending Thursday afternoon. 12z Euro showed 9.7 inches. Guess we are gonna have to dig through all the boxes to find the snow stuff pretty quickly after we get there! 

Congrats bro! Jealous.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Part of the reason there’s some pyrocumulus in there is that the airmass swinging through is fairly cool. Hot, smoke laden parcells are more bouyant than usual, they rise faster and higher, cool to and condense at lower temperatures.

Not sure if that makes things any better though, considering that there is a wildfire burning in relatively cool weather…in March…

Wouldn’t that be countered by a shallower tropopause and reduced buoyancy in bulk?

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

That was an overexposed station, though. Be weary of those high temps.

Yes... I understand that.    The rainfall stats are what I am mainly looking at with those old records.     Also... the cool overnight lows and large diurnal ranges likely indicate periods of clear weather.

[Meatyorologist]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wouldn’t that be countered by a shallower tropopause and reduced buoyancy in bulk?

I highly doubt the tropopause is being reached, unless for some reason Redding has just been transported to Alert or Vostok. From what I see it's just hitting the LCL then dissipating because of bad environmental thermals aloft+tempered lift, much like the low topped cumulus in the distance.

[Phishy Wx]

3 hours ago, AlTahoe said:

Current fire conditions in Redding. Is this Aug or March? We are screwed this spring/summer

 

and we'll get all the smoke up here again this summer.  broken record BS. over it

[snow_wizard]

The 18z EPS is the coldest yet with the mini blast next week, and shows 850s dropping to -10 over SEA on the mean.  Looks like a pretty solid shot at another couple of days of double digit minus departures for SEA with this.  I expect the GFS to move decidedly colder on tonight's run.

[snow_wizard]

8 hours ago, Phil said:

At the moment, the only evidence of spring here is the early morning bird chorus. Started to become more noticeable last week.

Interestingly, the green-up appears significantly delayed for now. Daffodils and snowbells just started poking up a few days ago. Grass is still brown and dormant, barely any buds on the trees. Things were much greener in December. 

Of course this will probably change in a hurry with the upcoming blowtorch Sun-Mon.

I just noticed the birds here this morning a well.

[TacomaWaWx]

How much snow did you end up with in February @snow_wizard

[Meatyorologist]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z EPS is the coldest yet with the mini blast next week, and shows 850s dropping to -10 over SEA on the mean.  Looks like a pretty solid shot at another couple of days of double digit minus departures for SEA with this.  I expect the GFS to move decidedly colder on tonight's run.

Euro cutoff bias w/ handling that low north of Hawaii is slowly fading w/ proximity... Wouldn't be surprised if this cold snap kind of snuck up on us too.

[snow_wizard]

On 3/3/2022 at 7:00 PM, Meatyorologist said:

In 1952, KSEA and KMFR almost meet in annual precip, entirely through how dry of a year it was in Seattle. Just 23.78", around half of what we normally recieve. Medford, in fact, actually had a somewhat normal water year in 1952, making the proximity in values that much more impressive.

I've seen pictures of Snoqualmie Falls almost not running from that year.  Part of 1951 through 1952 was a very dry / cold period.

[Cascadia_Wx]

52/38 today had some moderate showers move in from the NE in the early afternoon then it cleared out picked up .08” 

[Kayla]

4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

House sale officially closed yesterday! Woohoo!!

Currently in Buffalo, Wyoming for the night. Stopped at a gift shop in @Kayla's neck of the woods on our way here. Really liked the Bozeman area... Too bad it's so dang expensive! No can do-ie Louie.

Expecting some snow here overnight along the lines of 2-3 inches. We originally planned on stopping in Sheridan, WY but they are expected to get twice as much as Buffalo so hopefully this decision will help us get out to Rapid City more easily tomorrow. 

Also looks like models are starting to converge on a more snowy scenario for SF in the Wed/Thurs timeframe. 18z GFS showed 17.5 inches falling over 24-hours ending Thursday afternoon. 12z Euro showed 9.7 inches. Guess we are gonna have to dig through all the boxes to find the snow stuff pretty quickly after we get there! 

Did you go to the Montana Gift Corral on Main St?? And ughhh it's so expensive here now and the growth in the 5 years that we have been here is mind blowing. It has to slow down at some point...I hope!!

Safe travels the rest of the way!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

42/33 today. 0.19” precip 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I highly doubt the tropopause is being reached, unless for some reason Redding has just been transported to Alert or Vostok. From what I see it's just hitting the LCL then dissipating because of bad environmental thermals aloft+tempered lift, much like the low topped cumulus in the distance.

10-4. I can’t see the picture so I don’t know how tall the thing is. 

[Phil]

Gonna be an ugly GFS run for the California people.

[TT-SEA]

Hey... look where another AR is focused for 3 straight days next week on the 00Z GFS!    Just where the rain is desperately needed.  

Thanks nature... just keep dumping it on the part of the West Coast that doesn't need another drop and leave the rest high and dry.    

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Hey... look where another AR is focused for 3 straight days next week on the 00Z GFS!    Just where the rain is desperately needed.  

pneu klimate

[Phil]

Winter returning to North Bend?

[Phil]

Looks cold for @hawkstwelve. 1 degree  

 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Winter returning to North Bend?

Looking forward to that 51-degree snow.  

That is a particularly bad forecast app.  

[The Blob]

I could hear lot of frogs croaking while doing our yard audit. Had plenty of sun breaks today as well.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looking forward to that 51-degree snow.  

That is a particularly bad forecast app.  

It’s the NWS. It just doesn’t have a mix/transition icon.

BTW I have seen snow at 51 degrees. It was weird.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s the NWS. It just doesn’t have a mix/transition icon.

BTW I have seen snow at 51 degrees. It was weird.

Dude... its garbage.     There won't be 47 degree or 51 degree snow here.