[Missing] March 2022 PNW Wx Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM looks good

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A little sun out now. 41. 

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Snowbells blooming. Which usually means it’s done snowing.

 

 

The fact it appears to be sunny out doesn’t look promising for snow as well.

[Omegaraptor]

19 hours ago, AlTahoe said:

Current fire conditions in Redding. Is this Aug or March? We are screwed this spring/summer

 

They also managed a +3.5 departure for Feb, while most of the lowland PNW was below average.

For as much as Tiger complains about Eugene constantly being warm/dry... it's still a garden of eden compared to places further south.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the EPS mean, ECMWF operational, and EPS control have all settled on 850s dropping to around -9 with the chilly trough next week.  Going to be nippy.

[Phishy Wx]

Interesting yet weird, as we have below normal lowland snow in E WA this season

 

 

[Phishy Wx]

55 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Yea but what about the "SOP" and the "PCP" as it relates to whether you're down with "OPP"? 

on LSD, you know me

[snow_wizard]

Good news on the ENSO front.  The ECMWF ensemble has dropped little bit more on the expected Nino 3.4 temps for early autumn.  It peaked at warm neutral (near weak Nino) on the January forecast, and then a dropped a bit on the February forecast, and is now showing flat zero for early autumn.  This should be our year to have some substantial negative temp anoms before a likely Nino next year.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Interesting yet weird, as we have below normal lowland snow in E WA this season

 

 

I think Central WA killed it though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Interesting yet weird, as we have below normal lowland snow in E WA this season

 

 

I noticed this correlation on the CPC ENSO weekly update too. Classic Nina. Too bad the details turned out to be so boring. Two decent events at least. 

[snow_wizard]

Sometime this weekend I'm going to do a thread about the first 6 winters of the 21st century vs the last 6 for the PNW lowlands.  By every metric the last 6 have been far better than the 2000-01 to 2005-06 period which strongly goes against the narrative of an out of control warming climate.  At this point it looks like the beginning of this century may have been rock bottom for us.  Anyway, I will have the numbers in the thread.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Sometime this weekend I'm going to do a thread about the first 6 winters of the 21st century vs the last 6 for the PNW lowlands.  By every metric the last 6 have been far better than the 2000-01 to 2005-06 period which strongly goes against the narrative of an out of control warming climate.  At this point it looks like the beginning of this century may have been rock bottom for us.  Anyway, I will have the numbers in the thread.

Glad to hear the climate is not warming!     

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I noticed this correlation on the CPC ENSO weekly update too. Classic Nina. Too bad the details turned out to be so boring. Two decent events at least. 

The stupid January curse again.  At any rate, if this next cold snap pans out that will be three completely separate rounds of much below normal temps this season...at least up this way.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Glad to hear the climate is not warming!     

At this point summer is the only season that has been warming here.  I certainly don't deny a ton of warming took place during the latter part of the 20th century.  The past has shown us this stuff can turn on a dime though.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At this point summer is the only season that has been warming here.  I certainly don't deny a ton of warming took place during the latter part of the 20th century.  The past has shown us this stuff can turn on a dime though.

Not true.   At least using the criteria you listed covering the first 6 years of this century and the last 6 years.

I exported the SEA monthly temperatures to Excel and compared those periods for all 4 seasons.

At SEA... only winter was slightly cooler in 2000-2006 compared to 2015-2021.    Spring, summer, and fall were all significantly warmer.    

Winter:  -0.23

Spring  +2.48

Summer  +2.67

Fall  +1.07

 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

At this point summer is the only season that has been warming here.  I certainly don't deny a ton of warming took place during the latter part of the 20th century.  The past has shown us this stuff can turn on a dime though.

Well average temps have bumped up in all seasons…although our winter climo doesn’t seem to be changing as fast as our summer climo. The change from the 1981-2010 averages to the 1991-2020 averages is telling. Not sure how you can spin it any other way…it’s globally too. Showing the temp anomalies in the PNW is just a small area of the world. Isn’t indicative of the entire world on global warming as a whole. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At least here it would be hard to have a worse six year stretch of winters than 2001-2006. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At least here it would be hard to have a worse six year stretch of winters than 2001-2006. 

The average temperature at SEA for the winter seasons of 1999-00 through 2005-06 was 42.06 degrees.

The average temperature at SEA for the winter seasons of 2015-16 through 2021-22 was 41.83 degrees.

That is pretty close to identical.   I assume it comes down to a little more blocking recently which has allowed for more snow events since 2015 which makes it more memorable despite not being much colder overall.    In the other 3 seasons... its been warmer overall in the last 6 years.   So hard to argue that the climate is not warming.

[TacomaWaWx]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The average temperature at SEA for the winter seasons of 1999-00 through 2005-06 was 42.06 degrees.

The average temperature at SEA for the winter seasons of 2015-16 through 2021-22 was 41.83 degrees.

That is pretty close to identical.   I assume it comes down to a little more blocking recently which has allowed for more snow events since 2015 which makes it more memorable despite not being much colder overall.    In the other 3 seasons... its been warmer overall in the last 6 years.   So hard to argue that the climate is not warming.

It’s pretty hard to spin the climate not warming. Especially in the summertime here in the PNW. Most of the last 20 years have had above average summers especially the last decade and the last cooler than normal one was 2011. Its not even exclusively summer either. It’s a question of how much of the warming is part of the earths natural warming/cooling cycles and how much of it is man made. I’m sure some of it can be attributed to greenhouse gases but how much is the question. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Pretty nice day here in tacoma. 48 after a low of 35 and partly sunny. Everything besides some cherry blossoms on some of the trees looks dormant and winter like…but that’ll change in just a few weeks. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Pretty nice day here in tacoma. 48 after a low of 35 and partly sunny. Everything besides some cherry blossoms on some of the trees looks dormant and winter like…but that’ll change in just a few weeks. 

The grass must be much greener now... it is here.   Or maybe your grass has been green all winter?

[T-Town]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Pretty nice day here in tacoma. 48 after a low of 35 and partly sunny. Everything besides some cherry blossoms on some of the trees looks dormant and winter like…but that’ll change in just a few weeks. 

Spectacular day. 50 here. 

[TacomaWaWx]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The grass must be much greener now... it is here.   Or maybe your grass has been green all winter?

It never really changes much in the winter time here. Only real noteable thing that happens is it turns into hay in august lol. 

[Thunder98]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

Pretty spectacular failure by the last downwelling OKW.

And wind stress is easterly now. Will need a significant WWB/DOKW to initiate soon or chances of an ENSO transition drop substantially. 

 

All these La Ninas have been screwing up California's rainy season. We need a east based El nino!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO ensemble mean down to -15C at 850mb for Spokane. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

16 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

All these La Ninas have been screwing up California's rainy season. We need a east based El nino!

California also had bad drought during the mostly +ENSO 2013-16 period seems like there are other factors too 

[LowerGarfield]

45F and sunny with no wind feels just as perfect as 75 in early Sept.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like it is sunny and a seasonably cool 45 here AS WELL. 

[Front Ranger]

This will be the second major cold air mass to affect the west/middle of the country in 3 weeks. Probably won't set as many records as the last one, though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is pretty darn active. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I think Central WA killed it though.

True, but so much of that was because of the snowcalypse.  We had 4-5 feet in a 100 hour stretch the first week of January and maybe a foot since then.  Driest stretch of weather in that time frame that I have seen here.  

We did have a good amount of snow in December and that helped too.  

[T-Town]

Bella says more days like today please. 

[Meatyorologist]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z is pretty darn active. 

Almost a windstorm pattern

[Phil]

We need one of these to drop down on Putin’s army.

 

[MossMan]

Gorgeous day and evening!! 
50/38 on the day. Currently 39. 
 

[Phil]

Just now, MossMan said:

Gorgeous day and evening!! 
50/38 on the day. Currently 39. 
 

You’ve got a sick tree there.

[Omegaraptor]

Somewhat OT... but looks like a decent cold snap coming up in Greece. Might be a tough week ahead for olive growers in some spots.

Some spots in lowland Greece forecasting highs in the upper 30s and snow. Not bad for mid-March.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

You’ve got a sick tree there.

Yeah the ground is too wet in that location. Probably root rot, been like that ever since we bought the place 4yrs ago. I think you have noticed that tree a few times over the years! 

[Meatyorologist]

32 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Somewhat OT... but looks like a decent cold snap coming up in Greece. Might be a tough week ahead for olive growers in some spots.

Some spots in lowland Greece forecasting highs in the upper 30s and snow. Not bad for mid-March.

They've had a very decent winter from what I've heard.

[The Blob]

Took surface streets to work and found the world's largest fork. Also sunset was beautiful.