[Missing] March 2022 PNW Wx Discussion

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Dude... its garbage.     There won't be 47 degree or 51 degree snow here.  

It’s the NWS forecast.  

[Phishy Wx]

Spokane is above normal on moisture for the first time in it seems forever.  we'll take it.  hope to get rid of the long term drought in the process

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

It’s the NWS forecast.  

Okee dokey.  

A chance of rain or snow showers before 5 p.m. with a high of 51.    Yep... that is the way it works here.   

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Okee dokey.  

A chance of rain or snow showers before 5 p.m. with a high of 51.    Yep... that is the way it works here.   

I’m gonna laugh my a** off if it snows there next Friday.

[TT-SEA]

The NWS point forecasts are always horrible out here.   Way too many elevation changes across short distances.   I never look at it... those work way better right in Seattle or anywhere east of the Rockies.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I’m gonna laugh my a** off if it snows there next Friday.

Well... it could theoretically snow.   But it won't be partly sunny and snowing during the day and 51 degrees for a high.    That is just silly.   It does not work that way here.  

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The NWS point forecasts are always horrible out here.   Way too many elevation changes across short distances.   I never look at it... those work way better right in Seattle or anywhere east of the Rockies.

They’re actually not great out here either. At least for low temps on calm, clear nights. Horizontal resolution simply isn’t high enough.

But it’s better than anything else available save actual high resolution mesoscale guidance.

[TT-SEA]

The best chance for snow this week up here will be early Wednesday morning with a c-zone.  That is when its cold enough at the upper levels.   

By Friday... it will be either sunny (ECMWF) or pouring rain and in the mid 40s (GFS).     The GFS shows 925 temps of +6C here on Friday with precip... that set up is always rain at my house.    

[MossMan]

35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hey... look where another AR is focused for 3 straight days next week on the 00Z GFS!    Just where the rain is desperately needed.  

Thanks nature... just keep dumping it on the part of the West Coast that doesn't need another drop and leave the rest high and dry.    

Hopefully the shadow shifts north a few miles. It was a lifesaver during the last AR. 

[Jbolin]

15 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Starting to get into the mood for thunderstorm season now. Last two summers have been lacking. Need me another Sept 2013/2019 repeat

Melanie Metz, one half of the "Twister Sisters", she's been chasing for well over 20 years and is in the same old school group as Tim Samaras, Howie Bluestein, Josh Whurman, etc. 

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Melanie Metz, one half of the "Twister Sisters", she's been chasing for well over 20 years and is in the same old school group as Tim Samaras, Howie Bluestein, Josh Whurman, etc. 

Tim Samaras.

Rest in power, brother.

[Meatyorologist]

38 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s the NWS. It just doesn’t have a mix/transition icon.

BTW I have seen snow at 51 degrees. It was weird.

You live on the Tibetan Plateau or something? Pikes Peak? Thin, dry air is the only way that works unless something really nutty w/ convection occurs.

[Meatyorologist]

16 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Melanie Metz, one half of the "Twister Sisters", she's been chasing for well over 20 years and is in the same old school group as Tim Samaras, Howie Bluestein, Josh Whurman, etc. 

That's a name I haven't heard in a while 

[Phil]

48 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

You live on the Tibetan Plateau or something? Pikes Peak? Thin, dry air is the only way that works unless something really nutty w/ convection occurs.

Just a snow squall in April. Deep mixing layer under CAA+downsloping on the lee side of the apps, lots of evaporative cooling and downward momentum transport. Nothing “nutty” about it, really.

Not uncommon to see snow showers here with temps in the low/mid 40s under such a setup. Already happened several times this winter, actually. But upper 40s/low 50s gets exponentially harder to pull off.

[Phishy Wx]

ive seen snow in South Carolina of all places at 51 degrees as a kid in the late 80s

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

ive seen snow in South Carolina of all places at 51 degrees as a kid in the late 80s

Yeah it’s uncommon in any single location but happens frequently east of the apps.

Live on the east coast for a few years and you’ll probably experience it.

[Skagit Weather]

GFS has 90" of snow for the North Cascades in the next 10 days and 180" in the next 16.

Euro has 15" in the next 10 days.

GEM has 50" in the next 10 days.

I wonder who's going to be right...

Unfortunately wouldn't be surprised if it's the Euro which seems to keep pushing out a mountain snow pattern further and further with each run.

[Chewbacca Defense]

3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Yup, the Gift Corral on Main Street. Awesome little store! So much cool stuff. Got a new teddy grizzly bear, little stuffed animal dog, and a Montana magnet for the kids. Parking wasn't great on the downtown strip there but worth the hassle!

And thanks!

Yeah that is an awesome store.  My wife and I went into a couple of other places, and in true "Bozangeles" form, we felt like we might *tarnish*  the goods.  When we went to Gift Corral the staff there were proper Montanans.

 

DId you guys grab a meal while you were there?  Lots of good restaurants there.

 

Safe travels on the rest of your trip!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's crazy how far apart the GFS and EURO ensembles are for the middle of next week. The EURO ensemble mean is colder than the coldest GFS ensemble member. 

[The Blob]

Looks frosty outside

[TacomaWaWx]

Was 35 here at 4am…now 40. I’m sure Jim’s happy with last nights euro but not really the type of weather we need heading into the warm season. There’s still a decent window for stacking mountain snow for the next 8 weeks roughly…so hopefully things change. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

8 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

GFS has 90" of snow for the North Cascades in the next 10 days and 180" in the next 16.

Euro has 15" in the next 10 days.

GEM has 50" in the next 10 days.

I wonder who's going to be right...

Unfortunately wouldn't be surprised if it's the Euro which seems to keep pushing out a mountain snow pattern further and further with each run.

Whichever model is driest is right

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Whichever model is driest is right

We got double what the ECMWF was showing earlier this week here.   ECMWF was showing around 5-6 inches of rain and we ended up with 11 inches.    It also showed around 3 inches at SEA and they got almost 5 inches of rain.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We got double what the ECMWF was showing earlier this week here.   ECMWF was showing around 5-6 inches of rain and we ended up with 11 inches.    It also showed around 3 inches at SEA and they got almost 5 inches of rain.  

Just 1.4" here but at least we actually got some rain this time. All about perspectives.

[Phil]

Not local to PNW thread but interesting and relevant to yesterday’s discussion.

Contrary to the SW US, spring leaf-out appears delayed by 20+ days in parts of the south/southeast. I’d mentioned it feels that way here as well. A lot of hours spent with dry air and subfreezing temps this winter despite no extreme cold.

Maybe the winter scene will hold on a bit longer.  

[Phil]

12z GFS looking much better for California.

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs is wetter than the euro days 7-10 but for the next week it’s fairly similar. Shows some decently chilly weather next week…but decently chilly is low 40s in mid March. 

[Phil]

8 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's crazy how far apart the GFS and EURO ensembles are for the middle of next week. The EURO ensemble mean is colder than the coldest GFS ensemble member. 

If there’s a disparity like that, it’s always better to have the Euro/EPS on your side than the GFS/GEFS. 

[Timmy Supercell]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Not local to PNW thread but interesting and relevant to yesterday’s discussion.

Contrary to the SW US, spring leaf-out appears delayed by 20+ days in parts of the south/southeast. I’d mentioned it feels that way here as well. A lot of hours spent with dry air and subfreezing temps this winter despite no extreme cold.

Maybe the winter scene will hold on a bit longer.  

Last Spring in the PNW wasn't statistically warm at some places. I was still setting (or almost matching) record low temps in April and May in K-Falls. Who knew that Summer would be a historical one. 

[Phil]

Storm track makes some progress into the interior West/NorCal later in the run. Needs to shift farther south but it’s something.

Hopefully Tim doesn’t steal it again.

[Phil]

Pretty spectacular failure by the last downwelling OKW.

And wind stress is easterly now. Will need a significant WWB/DOKW to initiate soon or chances of an ENSO transition drop substantially. 

 

[GHweatherChris]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

We got double what the ECMWF was showing earlier this week here.   ECMWF was showing around 5-6 inches of rain and we ended up with 11 inches.    It also showed around 3 inches at SEA and they got almost 5 inches of rain.  

You only got 10 inches of rain, well short of 11. LOL

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

You only got 10 inches of rain, well short of 11. LOL

We actually ended up over 11 inches in the time frame through Wednesday that the ECMWF showed 5 or 6 inches.

That sure did not trend drier in the models.

[Phil]

Snowbells blooming. Which usually means it’s done snowing.

 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Nice looking 12z GFS made it down to 32 this morning before low clouds formed now 39 and cloudy 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF has been trended faster with the mid-week system.    The 12Z run shows rapid clearing moving south through western WA on Tuesday now... previous runs did not show that until late in the day on Wednesday.     Its also much drier with the faster timing.      

This run shows mid 40s on Wednesday with full sunshine all day... that is pretty chilly at this time of year for a sunny day.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF has been trended faster with the mid-week system.    The 12Z run shows rapid clearing moving south through western WA on Tuesday now... previous runs did not show that until late in the day on Wednesday.  

 

Yeah, pretty sparse precipitation with this system next week. Might get 0.10” by the looks of it. Would definitely trade a pattern that was slightly warmer with more precip than this dry clipper type pattern with highs in the low 40s. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

14 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah, pretty sparse precipitation with this system next week. Might get 0.10” by the looks of it. Would definitely trade a pattern that was slightly warmer with more precip than this dry clipper type pattern with highs in the low 40s. 

Looks like wetter storms could be moving in by next weekend on the 12z Euro at least 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like wetter storms could be moving in by next weekend on the 12z Euro at least 

Not much at the 500mb level... but looks impressive at the surface. 

 

[Jbolin]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Pretty spectacular failure by the last downwelling OKW.

And wind stress is easterly now. Will need a significant WWB/DOKW to initiate soon or chances of an ENSO transition drop substantially. 

 

Yea but what about the "SOP" and the "PCP" as it relates to whether you're down with "OPP"?