May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

At this point I'm just marveling at this and enjoying the ride. Two weeks ago we were in a "couple times a century" cold snap and we're potentially heading into another one. If only we could get a winter like this.

Was thinking the same thing. Apparently these -ENSO regimes have lots of staying power in the Spring.

[Phil]

55 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This is my crappy weather setup! 

That’s not bad at all.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Very pleasant 60F out there on the porch.

[smerfylicious]

Got up to 74 at my place. Perfect day to have this installed: 

 

 

Now if they'd just finish installing...they've been at it for 14 friggin' hours...

[snow_wizard]

10 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Going all-in on this next winter 22-23. Moderate to strong nina with a tiny bit of volcanic influence. Recipe for greatness.

+QBO and the third year of multi year Nina as well.  The potential is about as good as it gets.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS is showing your basic run of the mill -15 departure for SEA on Monday.  That would be truly exceptional if it happens.  The record low max for the entire month of May would be shattered.

[Phil]

D**n these are some awesome looking model runs for the entire West. One of the more anomalous patterns you’ll see at this time of year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Even hour 330 on the gfs is pretty insane...

[Meatyorologist]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS is showing your basic run of the mill -15 departure for SEA on Monday.  That would be truly exceptional if it happens.  The record low max for the entire month of May would be shattered.

Would be pretty special.

[Meatyorologist]

OR Cascades get walloped down to pass level on this run, for 60 hours straight. Snowpack building well into May, not super common to peak this late in the season but it happens occasionally.

Also KSEA is cooling off at a stellar rate despite the increasing cloudcover. Already down to 52°F. Might notch a sub 50°F tomorrow if we can avoid a midnight high.

[Omegaraptor]

12 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I hear you on that last part. April actually gave me some SAD. Vitamin D3 pills helped quite a bit.

I think signs of it are popping up for sure. Feeling unusually low on energy and motivation as of late. Taking several Vitamin D pills a day, hopefully see some improvement soon.

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I think signs of it are popping up for sure. Feeling unusually low on energy and motivation as of late. Taking several Vitamin D pills a day, hopefully see some improvement soon.

It took a week or so for me to notice improvements. Good luck man. 

[Phil]

16 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I think signs of it are popping up for sure. Feeling unusually low on energy and motivation as of late. Taking several Vitamin D pills a day, hopefully see some improvement soon.

I take 10,000IU/day. Has done wonders for me both physically and mentally. 

[Meatyorologist]

23 minutes ago, Phil said:

I take 10,000IU/day. Has done wonders for me both physically and mentally. 

The average person in the summer produces just 500IU a day due to UV reactions in the skin alone, and this is widely considered to be enough to evade SAD.

10000IU is immense! I take one pill a day, worth 1000IU. Even that amount has lasting effects for days.

[NWbyNW]

Is the radar being weird, or is the precipitation truly like this flat WALL coming into the Puget Sound and down in through Oregon.  It looks almost perfectly straight in areas. It's weird to look at. Otherwise this is a good example of a front coming in I guess.  

[Phil]

40 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The average person in the summer produces just 500IU a day due to UV reactions in the skin alone, and this is widely considered to be enough to evade SAD.

10000IU is immense! I take one pill a day, worth 1000IU. Even that amount has lasting effects for days.

I’m naturally deficient in vitamin-D, unfortunately. Taking 10,000IU/day gets my blood counts into normal range.

[Meatyorologist]

49 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m naturally deficient in vitamin-D, unfortunately. Taking 10,000IU/day gets my blood counts into normal range.

Agh. That sounds like a pain, sorry you have to deal with that

[Cascadia_Wx]

Rain and 52 this morning. Smells really nice out, always love how rain smells in the spring after a warm day.

Looks like a pretty fun troughy pattern the next 5-7 days. 00z Euro got pretty warm by day ten though. Maybe a light at the end of the tunnel for everyone who was having meltdowns over some spring troughing yesterday.

[TT-SEA]

Its rained on most days for what will be a month and a half by next week and Portland had the wettest April ever... and there does not appear to much in the way of even a break for the next week.    And it will continue to be very cold.    Its not just a little spring troughing... its pretty crazy and persistent.    It is what it is... and it happens at times.    But I certainly understand people quickly getting tired of it at this time of year.   The reality is that June will likely be more of the same based on history.

[Front Ranger]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its rained on most days for what will be a month and a half by next week and Portland had the wettest April ever... and there does not appear to much in the way of even a break for the next week.    And it will continue to be very cold.    Its not just a little spring troughing... its pretty crazy and persistent.    It is what it is... and it happens at times.    But I certainly understand people quickly getting tired of it at this time of year.   The reality is that June will likely be more of the same based on history.

I remember when the 2011 redux posts were dismissed...

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I remember when the 2011 redux posts were dismissed...

There was 17 dry days in May 2011 at SEA and June actually ended up a little drier than normal.      Might be tough to reach 2011-like weather this year.   

There was 19 dry days at SEA in May 2008 and that month actually ended up with less than an inch of rain at SEA which was less than 50% of normal.       SEA will blow past the May 2008 rainfall total in the next couple days.    June was also a little drier than normal at SEA that year. 

2008 and 2011 sound pretty nice right now.  

[BLI snowman]

49 with a nice big batch of steady rain moving in. Should be another nice day. Variety is the spice of life.

[TacomaWaWx]

Low of 46 this morning 0.01” in the bucket. 

[TacomaWaWx]

I wouldn’t worry about it raining almost everyday until July just yet. Would be highly unusual to keep getting deep troughing and rain constantly the next 2 months. I’m pretty sure we will see one or two periods of ridging and warm weather between now and then…and nice days during troughing too. It’s that time of year! 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Rain and 52 this morning. Smells really nice out, always love how rain smells in the spring after a warm day.

Looks like a pretty fun troughy pattern the next 5-7 days. 00z Euro got pretty warm by day ten though. Maybe a light at the end of the tunnel for everyone who was having meltdowns over some spring troughing yesterday.

EPS actually made a troughier shift D11-15.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I wouldn’t worry about it raining almost everyday until July just yet. Would be highly unusual to keep getting deep troughing and rain constantly the next 2 months. I’m pretty sure we will see one or two periods of ridging and warm weather between now and then…and nice days during troughing too. It’s that time of year! 

I keep thinking the same thing... but it seems to impossible right now to get even a 2-3 day period of dry weather across the region.    The models just take it away as it gets closer.      It was no problem in our analog Nina years like 1975, 1999, 2008, and 2011.      Even in 1955... it didn't rain out here for the first 9 days of May.   

[The Swamp]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I wouldn’t worry about it raining almost everyday until July just yet. Would be highly unusual to keep getting deep troughing and rain constantly the next 2 months. I’m pretty sure we will see one or two periods of ridging and warm weather between now and then…and nice days during troughing too. It’s that time of year! 

this pattern seems like a tough nut to crack though

[RentonHill]

33 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

49 with a nice big batch of steady rain moving in. Should be another nice day. Variety is the spice of life.

Tim should move to arrakis! Problem Solved for everyone. Great idea!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Tim should move to arrakis! Problem Solved for everyone. Great idea!

Had to look that one up.  

 

[TacomaWaWx]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I keep thinking the same thing... but it seems to impossible right now to get even a 2-3 day period of dry weather across the region.    The models just take it away as it gets closer.      It was no problem in our analog Nina years like 1975, 1999, 2008, and 2011.      Even in 1955... it didn't rain out here for the first 9 days of May.   

Somethings gotta give eventually. I’ve been loving this spring so far but can understand many people want the weather to be much different than it has been lol. Eventually we should start to see longer breaks inbetween rainy days…it’s climo. I do think that this will even out in the end though…I’m feeling an Indian summer. 

[MossMan]

.27” so far on the day, 1.16” for the month. 
46 and cloudy currently. 

[MossMan]

We had that lovely T-Storm roll though two years ago today. This was the flash of lightning I caught while recording video. 

[AlTahoe]

Went to the end of the street yesterday and joined the dog in the lake. The lake water level is really low for this time of year. We walked out about 200 yards on the shelf and it was thigh deep. Mt rose in the distance 10.8'k is almost naked which is very early. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

10 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Went to the end of the street yesterday and joined the dog in the lake. The lake water level is really low for this time of year. We walked out about 200 yards on the shelf and it was thigh deep. Mt rose in the distance 10.8'k is almost naked which is very early. 

What is the water temperature?

[AlTahoe]

4 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

What is the water temperature?

On the shelf it was pretty much the air temp so mid 60's. It's very shallow so it reaches the air temp pretty quickly. For people that don't know I included a picture of the shelf. It is white sand bottom and anywhere from 1' - 20' deep before it drops off to 600'+

[MossMan]

19 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Went to the end of the street yesterday and joined the dog in the lake. The lake water level is really low for this time of year. We walked out about 200 yards on the shelf and it was thigh deep. Mt rose in the distance 10.8'k is almost naked which is very early. 

Watch out for exposed barrels…

Sounds like that barrel was originally in about 100’ of water back in the 70’s when they think it was dumped into Lake Mead. 

[AlTahoe]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Watch out for exposed barrels…

Sounds like that barrel was originally in about 100’ of water back in the 70’s when they think it was dumped into Lake Mead. 

Lol. I think all the bodies in Tahoe are 800' or deeper. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.50” on the day, about to hit 2” on the month. Average for May is a little over 4”, we may get there by Monday. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS showed a high in the low 40s on Monday at SEA... but the 12Z run shows a high close to 60.    Improvement! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another May BEAST a week from today.