antipex Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Actually Cliff is pretty reasonable about this stuff. He has publicly spoken out against alarmist tendacies of some outlets. Cliff may speak out against some of the alarmism but he still rides the AGW gravy train without question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Imagine a world where a pro-met sticks a fork in summer in late-July/early-August every year. Never would happen.Comes down to irrational perceptions of what typical winterlike weather in the PNW actually is. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Flakes falling in Bellingham. Will stop soon per radar however Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Flakes falling in Bellingham. Will stop soon per radar howeverNice chunky flakes, all snow. It’s nice just to have snow falling midday even though it won’t amount to anything. Sure wish there was some substance to these though!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 I could be wrong, but I bet it was the first time since January 2004 that EUG, SLE, and PDX all had a sub freezing January high on the same day. Just looked it up. SLE, EUG, and PDX all had sub freezing highs on January 13, 2007. Way to set yourself straight. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Of course SLE had 5 sub-freezing highs in January 2013 with the fogversion. Of course, in the old days, the cold was never fake. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Of course, in the old days, the cold was never fake.Would every snowflake at 10000 feet in the old cold days still be a snowflake on the ground? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Comes down to irrational perceptions of what typical winterlike weather in the PNW actually is.Or people who hate winter and want to get it over with as quickly as possible every year. Obviously snow and arctic cold are never the norm around here, but even during a super Nino like this one there is an outside shot at something impactful from roughly mid-November through mid-February. Climo can be a good guide, but winter climo around here is rain and mid-40s anyway. Looking at winter from a climo perspective you probably wouldn't be totally safe sticking a fork in 45 degree highs and rain until sometime in March. Long story short, calling any season off in the middle of said season is kind of dumb. I think it mainly just pisses off Mother Nature. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Definitely still have offshore flow out here... air mass is drying out nicely. 34 with a dewpoint of 30 and lots of blue sky. Snow is mostly off the trees but very little has melted. Tomorrow will probably be more messy but this is much nicer than thick drizzle and fog after a big snowfall. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Or people who hate winter and want to get it over with as quickly as possible. Obviously snow and arctic cold are never the norm around here, but even during a super Nino like this one there is an outside shot at something impactful from roughly mid-November through mid-February. Climo can be a good guide, but winter climo around here is rain and mid-40s anyway. Looking at winter from a climo perspective you probably wouldn't be totally safe sticking a fork in 45 degree highs and rain until sometime in March. Long story short, calling any season off in the middle of said season is kind of dumb. I think it mainly just pisses off Mother Nature.It's you against the world, kiddo. I think it comes down to the fact summer is more of an afterthought. People may toy with the idea of 90 degree days dwindling or disappearing later in summer but summerlike weather is just an uncomfortable fact of life well into meteorological fall the vast majority of years. On the other hand, winter is held in a much more anxious regard, full of more/less irrational proclamations by all kinds of people. Most of them tend to be irrationally positive, which is always more paletable but occasionally a negative one has to be digested. Both are typically wrong, or just end up right by chance. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 I take it the 18z sucked...Snow stopped here, just foggy and slushy! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 I take it the 18z sucked...Snow stopped here, just foggy and slushy! If we extrapolate out to 500hrs I think we get a back door blast. The 18z looks pretty dry and full of "fake cold" potential. I expect DJ Droppin' to be posting cold pool updates soon. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 I like that one "member." http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted January 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 So I take it that chance of an arctic blast for us is diminishing rather rapidly? Even though I live over here, I still have many friends/family in western wa who get a kick out of the extreme cold that graces us with its presence once in a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 35 all day with a mix of rain/snow, drizzle, and mist. Feels so cold out there because it's so damp! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Cheer up everyone. We are closer to our next artic blast than we were just a couple days ago! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 18Z GFS is crazy dry for the next 10 days. A little rain tomorrow but not much else. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 I like that one "member." http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.pngThat blue is my new favorite color!!!!! I am no expert...but to me it looks like the models are a bit lost and all over the place from about the 8th on. Still lots of potential! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 18Z GFS is crazy dry for the next 10 days. A little rain tomorrow but not much else.Weren't people just talking about AR's coming and swallowing us and our snowpack up? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 It's you against the world, kiddo. I think it comes down to the fact summer is more of an afterthought. People may toy with the idea of 90 degree days dwindling or disappearing later in summer but summerlike weather is just an uncomfortable fact of life well into meteorological fall the vast majority of years. On the other hand, winter is held in a much more anxious regard, full of more/less irrational proclamations by all kinds of people. Most of them tend to be irrationally positive, which is always more paletable but occasionally a negative one has to be digested. Both are typically wrong, or just end up right by chance.Bit more of an armchair psychologist take than I was going for, but fair enough. Unreasonable expectations aside, if you look at the type of "winter" climo that is anogalous to 85+ degree days in relation to summer climo (maybe highs in the low 40s?) that kind of stuff has just as much a tendency to drag into early spring as 85+ warmth does into early fall. As it stands, the type of winter wx people get excited over is much more anomalous from a climatological perspective than 85+ degree warmth in the summer. The kind of stuff we live and die by here has a much shorter seasonal shelf life in this climate. That's what makes it so special/unusual. And there are definitely a lot of warped expectations involved with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 WRF from this morning shows offshore flow continuing most of the week. In fact, offshore winds pick up tonight and through tomorrow again down I-90 from the pass and into North Bend. Probably not strong enough to clear the muck in Seattle but I doubt we see any fog at all this week here. Its almost always nice here with offshore flow even if its going to warm up. There was no liquid precip here today... it went from snowing to sleeting and then to blue sky around noon. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Had a high of 35F today, and it's already dropped back just below freezing here now. Roads look pretty icy. I haven't had the temp rise above 40f since Dec 20th. Not a bad stretch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 I set up a game camera at my property to see what i could get on film. Very nice buck. 8 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 My son just did an official measurement after the compacting today... average was 11 inches of snow on the ground. Down to 32 here now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 I set up a game camera at my property to see what i could get on film. Very nice buck.Will you adopt me? Seems like the slush in the parking lot of my work is now starting to chunk up! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 I set up a game camera at my property to see what i could get on film. Very nice buck.Wow, a two degree temp rise in two minutes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 No forecast highs above the low 40s in the next week for PDX and SLE Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Remember the 30 year January average at PDX is a pathetic 47/35 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Wow, a two degree temp rise in two minutes!That night it snowed 8 inches. It snowed another 8 last night so that should put us around 24 inches or so. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Will you adopt me? Seems like the slush in the parking lot of my work is now starting to chunk up!Yes i will adopt you, how old are you? lol.. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Another 1. 4 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Remember the 30 year January average at PDX is a pathetic 47/35Sea is even a more pathetic 47/37. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Yes i will adopt you, how old are you? lol.. Yay! I'm only 39! When are we going to your cabin?? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Salem thawed today. Got icy again once I got towards the edge of Silverton. Silver falls hwy was pretty bad still. Dense fog too. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Yes i will adopt you, how old are you? lol.. Me too ? Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Bit more of an armchair psychologist take than I was going for, but fair enough. Unreasonable expectations aside, if you look at the type of "winter" climo that is anogalous to 85+ degree days in relation to summer climo (maybe highs in the low 40s?) that kind of stuff has just as much a tendency to drag into early spring as 85+ warmth does into early fall. As it stands, the type of winter wx people get excited over is much more anomalous from a climatological perspective than 85+ degree warmth in the summer. The kind of stuff we live and die by here has a much shorter seasonal shelf life in this climate. That's what makes it so special/unusual. And there are definitely a lot of warped expectations involved with it. You have to admit, most of this is psychological. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Salem thawed today. Got icy again once I got towards the edge of Silverton. Silver falls hwy was pretty bad still. Dense fog too.That's a scary drive when conditions are bad. Had a couple close calls when I lived up there. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 HRRR shows some precip rotating up from the south overnight and into tomorrow morning. Almost has to be frozen precip out here of some form... maybe elsewhere as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 33 degree rain. Yay! Full on craptastic out at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 In spite of the bust last night I am itrigued as hell by what the weather has been doing lately. I have noticed weak Fraser outflow has been going on for 3 days and some of that chilly air has actually seeped into the Puget Sound region now. That is likely what kept Seattle so chilly today. It 's like the low levels of the atmosphere are hell bent on making this a cold Janaury...at least so far. The 18z GFS features what is probably the wildest blocking regime I have ever seen on a model. No question of that run verifies well below normal temps will be the rule in the NW in spite of the main cold dropping down well east of us. At any rate a block of that amplitude could easily have energy dig back toward us if it forms more of an omega. The bottom line is...so far we are avoiding the Nino torch and may in fact end up with a pretty cold month. Maybe we have finally seen the shakeup we have needed to get January back on track. I guess we will know the answer to that in a few years... If anyone is saying winter is over it depends what your definition of winter is. If endless rain is the definition then maybe it is. If your definition is cold (more proper IMO) than it probably isn't. In case you're wondering...yes...I did go through a little tirade this morning although I knew we were sunk by about 11pm last night. If you're interested it has now been 4 years since I've had a snowfall greater than 1.5". 4 (yes four) freeking years! 5 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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