ShawniganLake Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Maybe the euro will tease us for another run or two. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 45 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: I'm not sure what's more enjoyable. Looking at the 00z GFS tonight, or stepping in dog poop barefoot. Cat puke is also acceptable. 00z ECMWF in 18 minutes I stepped on a slug in my garage when I was a kid. Like 5 years old. It’s burned into my core memory and always will be. That cold, smooth, slippery goo… 1 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Maybe the euro will tease us for another run or two. I freaking hope not! No toying with my mind or my emotions! 6z GFS in 3 hours 22 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 00z ECMWF Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z ECMWF Day 4 GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 56 minutes ago, Phil said: Not a drop of precip out to 10/22. Willamdeath Valley in the Desert Northwest 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Pretty remarkable to see a pacific systems not being able to go anywhere, except spins in there. Our jet is straight dead right now and it's a remarkably persistent pattern that'll seem to last for a while. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Day 5'er 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 15 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Maybe the euro will tease us for another run or two. Nope. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 00z ECMWF Day 5 (Past 4 runs) King GFS? or ICON(Hasselhoff) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 SEA managed to pull back to back 64F days.. which amazingly is 1 degree below normal for this time of year and feels weird for being "normal" 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cloud said: SEA managed to pull back to back 64F days.. which amazingly is 1 degree below normal for this time of year and feels weird for being "normal" Felt cold today. I completely agree 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Day 6 (Past 4 runs) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Well that's disappointing. At least it wasn't during the winter where an arctic blast became nothing! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Day 7 KONA Low! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Talk about a royal bummer on the models tonight. At least this isn't winter when it would really count. 5 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 It just seems like the pattern is moving towards a direction where we could see a big change even before mid-month, but it just never gets there. Yet. NOT YET! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, Doiinko said: Well that's disappointing. At least it wasn't during the winter where an arctic blast became nothing! Oh yeah it would be 90 times more disappointing then! Just now, snow_wizard said: Talk about a royal bummer on the models tonight. At least this isn't winter when it would really count. No doubt! No Ledge October! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 I'm going to make a firm prediction we will either be going into abnormal cold or a very wet period by Oct 25. Historically speaking it would be beyond belief if this pattern went beyond that time frame. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 My low has improved to 50 now after a high of 61 today. Pretty much a normal average for the date. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I'm going to make a firm prediction we will either be going into abnormal cold or a very wet period by Oct 25. Historically speaking it would be beyond belief if this pattern went beyond that time frame. I think it’ll be a bit later. Early November maybe? I do like the chances for a cold, stormy November for the West as a whole this year. There is now a growing consensus for a flip to -NAO sometime during the 2nd week of November across guidance and analog pools, and with that often comes -PNA (the two anticyclones tend to constructively reinforce). 2 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 It would appears the GFS is the one leading the way here... remarkable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Day 9'er! Well that's different. Undercut that ridge! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 It’s not an extreme pattern per se, but actually a very stable pattern producing extreme medium-long term records due to persistence of said stable patterns be it wet dry or cold etc 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: It’s not an extreme pattern per se, but actually a very stable pattern producing extreme medium-long term records due to persistence of said stable patterns be it wet dry or cold etc It seems to be a global thing too. Patterns are just locking in like the jaws of a bull dog. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 17 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 9'er! Well that's different. Undercut that ridge! The atmosphere is remarkably compartmentalized for so early in the season. If that happens this winter things could almost come to a standstill as far as the PJ is concerned. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 My garden spider munching on a monarch last week. 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 1 3 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Many of the CPC analogs tonight are from cold ENSO years. Quite a few of the winters had cold Januarys. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, The Blob said: My garden spider munching on a monarch last week. I recently kept two house spiders as pets in same container.. 1 big, 1 small. The big one ate the small one for lunch/dinner. I had no idea they cannibalize. 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Many of the CPC analogs tonight are from cold ENSO years. Quite a few of the winters had cold Januarys. There’s 1988/89 and 1962/63 showing up as 00z GFS analogs. Also 1971/72, 1993/94, and 2003/04. All of those delivered heavy duty cold to the CONUS. 3 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Phil said: There’s 1988/89 and 1962/63 showing up as 00z GFS analogs. Also 1971/72, 1993/94, and 2003/04. All of those delivered heavy duty cold to the CONUS. The winter of 1954-55 had the most extreme March blast of the 20th century here also. Good list. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 12:35 AM near West Gresham Temp: 54.7 with Fog developing.... Inversion developing and no 85 today for PDX? What ya think? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 12:35 AM near West Gresham Temp: 54.7 with Fog developing.... Inversion developing and no 85 today for PDX? What ya think? 85 is pretty much top tier at this point. Tomorrow doesn’t quite look top tier. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: 85 is pretty much top tier at this point. Tomorrow doesn’t quite look top tier. I agree, but that's what is forecast. I'm not buying it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 18 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 12:35 AM near West Gresham Temp: 54.7 with Fog developing.... Inversion developing and no 85 today for PDX? What ya think? The models really struggle with inversions. We came in well below expectations today. I have 49 with fog developing here. Feels pretty October like tonight. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 20 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: I agree, but that's what is forecast. I'm not buying it. Offshore flow is pretty weak sauce and it would have to be timed really well to realize pretty much all the potential of the 24c 925mb temps. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 57 in Troudale, phone app says it's foggy outside. We also have a dense fog advisory till noon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Offshore flow is pretty weak sauce and it would have to be timed really well to realize pretty much all the potential of the 24c 925mb temps. Real weak on the 1.33km WRF even through most of tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 1 minute ago, The Blob said: 57 in Troudale, phone app says it's foggy outside. We also have a dense fog advisory till noon. Dense Frog Advisory Well there it is. No 85 or even 80 today! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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