NWbyNW Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 NOAA forecast discussion is quite depressing. The writer is so done with this weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 1 1 2 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 And lastly and an exceedingly depressing discussion of the smoke and winds this weekend from KOMO and what the smoke means for the Mariners and Seahawks... and us. Good for Anchorage though... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 Predicted ground level smoke by 4AM... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 33 minutes ago, NWbyNW said: Predicted ground level smoke by 4AM... Is there a map of that for Oregon? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Gradient Keeper Posted October 14, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 00z EPS was quite wet! 7 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 Pattern change begins just after Day 6 6 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny Summers Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z EPS was quite wet! Fire extinguisher pattern 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said: Fire extinguisher pattern This would really end the fire season no more smoky junk. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 Something is going to have to give sooner or later… king Euro 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 Fuckk this shitt. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Fuckk this shitt. How does it look against past runs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: How does it look against past runs? Worse. No rain for the Willamette Valley for the entire believable range. It doesn't show a meaningful pattern change in the first 10 days. A small trough clips Washington but it's further north now. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 Ensemble is still ok. I'm still inclined to believe the operational at this point tho. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 Precip totals for the GFS op run. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 I'm headed to bed. Hopefully the night shift becomes more of a party as we get into November. 4 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MV_snow Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 Lots of pessimism on this board despite the best model available and its ensembles being LOCKED IN! The rest is usually just noise when that happens. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 Some friendly advice. Right now the GFS op beyond Day 6 is and has been an outlier. Wait for the ensembles to see how they look Day 7+. 6z GEFS agrees on the timing of the pattern change beginning after Day 6, but it's not as chilly as the EURO, nor not quite as wet. You can see the operational run continues to be a massive outlier beyond Day 7 with the continued wacky ridge scenario. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 00z GEM Ensembles similar with the EPS, GEFS showing pattern change beginning just after Day 6. The Canadian is really wet with near average temperatures. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 The 6z GFS is awful. I'm thinking we get a compromise between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. The ECMWF has a bias of wanting to shove cut off lows to far west in cases like this which means it will probably move toward the GFS solutions as the time frame narrows. Not what I was hoping for. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 5 hours ago, NWbyNW said: WASHINGTON We're back to air quality as bad as just a few days ago. Merely a day of respite and back to this crud. Back to being the least healthy air in the country. 2022 has seemed to be the worst year for poor air quality longevity in Washington history (for as long as we have records for), but not the worst for PM2.5 accumulation. This still has been one of the tamest wildfire seasons in decades. It's just the closeness to the Bolt Creek Fire or the Larch Mountain Fire near Camas that makes this season so extreme for Western Washington. Fires like this don't happen on our side of the mountains and we don't go into October with no signs of rain. Pretty much minimal rain since June. The majority of the Puget Sound is under an unhealthy air quality alert. We're at the worst stage we've seen in awhile. Tacoma is at 155 AQI, Seattle is at 154 AQI, Everett is at 70 AQI, and Olympia is at 116 AQI. Monroe, closer to the Bolt Creek Fire, is at 160 AQI. These conditions will worsen overnight. Bolt Creek Fire has re-shut down Highway 2 as well. OREGON For Oregon, you can expect conditions to worsen, especially around Eugene and Roseburg. You can expect unhealthy conditions soon. Portland's conditions are moderate right now but will degrade. OUTLOOK Also attached below are future smoke models for Washington and Oregon looking out roughly two days. Conditions will get worse with no sign of improvement. Pretty awful. We need those westerlies and RAIN! Thanks for the post, analysis, and time you spent putting into this. 12z GFS in 2 hours 19 minutes 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The 6z GFS is awful. I'm thinking we get a compromise between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. The ECMWF has a bias of wanting to shove cut off lows to far west in cases like this which means it will probably move toward the GFS solutions as the time frame narrows. Not what I was hoping for. I think the same. Euro probably won’t cave in one run but over several runs slowly extend timeline out, and one of the next four runs of the GFS it will kick up the timing a bit but not all the way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 5 hours ago, DJ Droppin said: This would really end the fire season no more smoky junk. If your junk is smoking that’s probably something to get checked out. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 GFS operational continues to be an outlier in its own ensemble, other models, and their ensembles too. Far ridgier than any other ooutlook by a long shot. I think it's any meteorologist's safe bet that we'll cool off considerably late next week into next weekend with an increasing chance at our first substantial rainfall of the season. 7 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: GFS operational continues to be an outlier in its own ensemble, other models, and their ensembles too. Far ridgier than any other ooutlook by a long shot. I think it's any meteorologist's safe bet that we'll cool off considerably late next week into next weekend with an increasing chance at our first substantial rainfall of the season. No!! we need to know if its going to be 42 or 45 overnight and whether the rain is coming thursday morning or friday night!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 46F my place this morning. Around 50F at KSEA Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 5 hours ago, DJ Droppin said: Pattern change begins just after Day 6 This looks like it should be going good by the 21st which is my wife's 20th anniversary of her 30th birthday. Though she was born in Montana, she has spent a vast majority of her life in the PNW and is a true web-foot. She loooooves the rain. I can't think of a better birthday present for her! 5 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 6 hours ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z EPS was quite wet! Clown range again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 Low of 39 in Nowata, Oklahoma this morning. Red flag warning today. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MossMan Posted October 14, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 From my relatives in Minnesota this morning. I blurred out the snowman’s face since I did not get approval from the said snowman to post the pic. 5 1 4 6 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said: Pretty awful. We need those westerlies and RAIN! Thanks for the post, analysis, and time you spent putting into this. 12z GFS in 2 hours 19 minutes Climate change makes blocking patterns more likely. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 The fog is back this morning accompanying surface level smoke and haze. This may help put a cap on the high depending on how fast the fog clear out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, MossMan said: From my relatives in Minnesota this morning. I blurred out the snowman’s face since I did not get approval from the said snowman to post the pic. I was just going to post about this... here is a live view from where my in-laws live in the Twin Cities. 5 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, MossMan said: From my relatives in Minnesota this morning. I blurred out the snowman’s face since I did not get approval from the said snowman to post the pic. Snowman should be wearing a mask 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Low of 39 in Nowata, Oklahoma this morning. Red flag warning today. Looks really dry. Nowata indeed! 1 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, Cloud said: The fog is back this morning accompanying surface level smoke and haze. This may help put a cap on the high depending on how fast the fog clear out. Fog appears to be very localized. Don't think it will have much of an impact on temps. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Climate change makes blocking ridges centered over the PNW more likely. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Looks really dry. Nowata indeed! I see what you did there… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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