Kind of hard to figure out why people are acting so shocked by the models staying hot. We had five days in the 90s down here just last May. I could see this being similar with maybe a higher peak.
Alright, so FWIW I’m now quite certain the GFS is wrong with how aggressively it phases that shortwave with ULL in the GOA. Not that it’s wrong in doing so, or wrong w/rt the downstream ridge, but very few of the GEFS members (and none of the GEPS members) are that aggressive with the phasing and deepening at that longitude. And those model suites are the only ones that have entertained the idea to begin with.
In the end, I think I like my original call from a week ago, with the second ridge prograding to near the west-coast but centered offshore, (technically a discontinuous retrogression of mean-period ridge axis) up until the pattern breaks after the ~ 25th.
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