DeepFriedEgg Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 No cold pool UGH. Another anafront hour 174 but temps too warm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: It is. The dream of arctic air is dead. Yep unless there are sudden changes on the next 3 runs. There won't be, but dang it would be nice. 6z GFS in 2 hours 51 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 lol euro even wants to change Spokane to rain on wednesday evening 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: No cold air of any kind on this run after the first trough unlike the GFS which is a pure garbage. Conflicting reports! 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Wow. This sucks big time. GFS is truly an embarrassment. Needs major upgrades... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 8 Looks like the beginning of what the GEM was showing on some crazy runs. Trough might deepen but not move south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Good Lord. Getting into the weeds now Chris. Taking the run as it comes... and that development for Thursday is potentially huge. That is not just a throw away map. Do you think that what it’s showing for Thursday has the chance of trending west at all? 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Really not *horrible*-- that setup the EURO shows will give PDX some snow at face value. 4 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Quite descriptive! If I'm suffering, so should you all too! 2 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 No shortage of chances and resets in this run. Huge potential. 2 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, Cold Snap said: Do you think that what it’s showing for Thursday has the chance of trending west at all? Anafront placement is a totally different thing... definitely could trend north and west. That is very common. 3 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Now that the euro is showing that anafront potential like the gfs has been for awhile this could be a pretty good situation down there better than nothing! Maybe here too with the anafront. The late run looks full of promise on this run too. Being real...nothing but below normal temps and good potential being shown. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Day 9'er 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Geez I can see why Jim gets annoyed sometimes. Pepto over Puget or 2 1 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Things got real dark on here real quick once the best snow chances shifted south. 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyMaestro Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Euro knows real well on how to shatter some hearts. How do things look past early December? Are we still in a colder pattern at least? 𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴, 𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯. 𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱. Reddit: HotlineMaestro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Requiem said: Really not *horrible*-- that setup the EURO shows will give PDX some snow at face value. It is certainly promising but one unfortunate thing is the Euro shows absolutely no cold air in the basin at that time. It is 34F in The Dalles with relatively high DPs. Not ideal but it may be just enough. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: Maybe here too with the anafront. The late run looks full of promise on this run too. Being real...nothing but below normal temps and good potential being shown. Think Jesse made a pretty good point earlier that the overall pattern stays in place even with the Wednesday event not working out in the short term. The long range on a lot of the models has potential with the Alaska blocking but the way the short term chaos has gone hard to get too excited yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Still a lot of snow over puget sound but temps are about 5 degrees to high for anything spectacular 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 9'er Similar to the Euro CMC i am operating on fumes 2 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Kind of an OMG developing late run. We are in for a ride guys. Strap in! 1 2 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Things got real dark on here real quick once the best snow chances shifted south. I'm in Portland but I'm still not thrilled. The anafront setup is very fragile and honestly will likely trend north. What I really wanted to see was a cold pool, and the euro has nothing of the sort. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Kinda reminds me of late December ‘92. 30. Years. 3 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said: It is certainly promising but one unfortunate thing is the Euro shows absolutely no cold air in the basin at that time. It is 34F in The Dalles with relatively high DPs. Not ideal but it may be just enough. That setup really has nothing to do with cold air on the east side. It’s a stalled front. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said: It is certainly promising but one unfortunate thing is the Euro shows absolutely no cold air in the basin at that time. It is 34F in The Dalles with relatively high DPs. Not ideal but it may be just enough. Often dependent on precip rates too and pulling whatever cold air aloft there is down to the surface. 4 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Anafront placement is a totally different thing... definitely could trend north and west. That is very common. Yup will end up right over Puget Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cold Snap said: Do you think that what it’s showing for Thursday has the chance of trending west at all? You would need the low to come in much further north. Of course that would screw people to the south...but that's usually how this works. Here is the 00z Euro 00z GFS Pretty remarkably good agreement between the GFS and Euro on the strength and position of this low. The GEM has it too but it is much weaker and even further south. Given this feature is showing up on all 3 models now and for more than 1 run now, it is starting to get a bit interesting. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Kinda reminds me of late December ‘92. 30. Years. That was a really good one for the Central WV. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Things got real dark on here real quick once the best snow chances shifted south. My backyard isn't in Oregon. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 So much arctic air just north of the border at hour 210!! 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 @TigerWoodsLibido 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Even Eugene gets in on the action... I will grab a clean plate this time and preserve it in my freezer. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Anafronts have much less propensity to move 300 miles north or south as a developing low. But 20-30 miles can make a massive difference because if you aren’t under the heavy precip band then you aren’t going to get snow. 4 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Day 10 Polar lobe almost into northeast Washington 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, FroYoBro said: That setup really has nothing to do with cold air on the east side. It’s a stalled front. Yeah which is unfortunate because these isothermal percip rate dependent setups are almost impossible to predict as far as which spots actually get the snow. The lucky people that are under the heaviest rates get it while the rest watch 34F rain/snow mix. Having some cold air to the east to draw in would have made it much more confidence inspiring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RayRay Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 my soul feels like it’s melting with the chances of lowland snow disappearing right in front of my eyes. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 10 Polar lobe almost into northeast Washington What a weird pattern. 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Wicked CAA into WA at the end. We're going to be exhausted by the time this all plays out. 6 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Good lord 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Anafront placement is a totally different thing... definitely could trend north and west. That is very common. Good to know the Seattle area could have another chance Thursday if Wednesday doesn’t work out. 2 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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