November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Meatyorologist]

One thing I've learned is to never underestimate heavy precipitation's ability to absolutely rake in accumulations.

-Heavy snow can accumulate on all surfaces faster than it melts below ~35F

-Heavy snow will usually drag temps down to around or just above freezing regardless, making accumulating snow even more favorable

[Snownerd3000]

Weeklies staying consistent from run to run.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

GFS “upgrade” delayed a day.

 

The bad vibes with this new upgrade continue to grow...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

One thing I've learned is to never underestimate heavy precipitation's ability to absolutely rake in accumulations.

-Heavy snow can accumulate on all surfaces faster than it melts below ~35F

-Heavy snow will usually drag temps down to around or just above freezing regardless, making accumulating snow even more favorable

And this creates its own micro climate. Tomorrow could be a massive bust either way. 

[gusky]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

One thing I've learned is to never underestimate heavy precipitation's ability to absolutely rake in accumulations.

-Heavy snow can accumulate on all surfaces faster than it melts below ~35F

-Heavy snow will usually drag temps down to around or just above freezing regardless, making accumulating snow even more favorable

[Blizzard777]

Wintery mix continues outside with no rain mixed in .  Fun day

37*

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Very rare to see convergence over Kitsap like today.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

One thing I've learned is to never underestimate heavy precipitation's ability to absolutely rake in accumulations.

-Heavy snow can accumulate on all surfaces faster than it melts below ~35F

-Heavy snow will usually drag temps down to around or just above freezing regardless, making accumulating snow even more favorable

Happened here in April, 2" of very wet snow that melted pretty fast after it stopped snowing. Very nice event especially considering this area is one of the driest in the Metro area

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Been snowing on and off all morning here in port orchard. 34 degrees.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Weeklies staying consistent from run to run.

Looks super blocky well out into January. Lots of potential. Love it.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If it snows a foot at my house i will let the kids roll me into a snowball on video.

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looks super blocky well out into January. Lots of potential. Love it.

Would the 500mb anomaly map be helpful?  Can share if so.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Insanity for here. This would cause a bunch of problems if 10-16 inches of wet snow falls that fast. This model is showing 1-2 inches per hr rate.

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If it snows a foot at my house i will let the kids roll me into a snowball on video.

Gonna look like Madmartigan from Willow

[Everleigh]

Temp has quickly dropped to 36.5°F. I feel like the weather just can't decide what it wants to do.....Sun. Rain. Snow. Everything all at once!! lol 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What i've  learned is if the airmass is cold enough the wrf does good with totals. It is the most accurate for my cabin area. But it is always cold enough for snow there from November through march 98% of the time.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Models still looking good for 6–12" IMBY Tuesday night into Wednesday. 18Z HRRR says about 8".

[Cold Snap]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Insanity for here. This would cause a bunch of problems if 10-16 inches of wet snow falls that fast. This model is showing 1-2 inches per hr rate.

Are the holes in East King county from the drying effect of the east winds? I know the WRF loves to overdo that in these setups.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Live shot from my brother's shop right below my property in Eastern WA. 

[Phishy Wx]

has not stopped snowing since I woke up at 7am. various intensities.  probably 3.5" so far.

 

HRRR sniffed it out earlier

[MossMan]

What time is the moisture estimated to arrive up In Snohomish Co tomorrow? 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

No weather station there yet to check on but I can zoom in on the old school technology. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

What time is the moisture estimated to arrive up In Snohomish Co tomorrow? 

Nam 3km shows 11am around you. 

[Phishy Wx]

Cancelled work trip, Bring on the goods

 

NWS Spokane just hoisted a WSW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Are the holes in East King county from the drying effect of the east winds? I know the WRF loves to overdo that in these setups.

Total precip, Looks like some drying effect in those places . Shown 2-2.5 inches of liquid around the canal.

[Snownerd3000]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

No weather station there yet to check on but I can zoom in on the old school technology. 

Did you share a screen shot of the pic you took? 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Cancelled work trip, Bring on the goods

NWS Spokane just hoisted a WSW

Jinx *ENGAGED*.

Thankfully, I have jinxed December the other way: Last weekend, banking on temperatures moderating later this month, I brought some extra camping gear up from my place in Bellingham.

[Phishy Wx]

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow. Additional snow accumulations up to 3 inches. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 8 and 12 inches possible with the highest amounts north of I-90.

* WHERE...Post Falls, Davenport, Fairfield, Spokane Valley, Hayden, Cheney, Coeur d'Alene, Rockford, Downtown Spokane, Airway Heights, and Worley. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 10 PM PST this evening. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Morning and evening commutes will be impacted.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Occasional light snow will fall during the day on Tuesday ahead of the heavy snow that will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This might be something to watch, After a small warm up wednesday snow levels crash back down and more snow possible wed evening.

[Snownerd3000]

That 405/5 interchange in Lynnwood looks to get smacked.  Should make traffic a breeze.

[Hawksfan2008]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This might be something to watch, After a small warm up wednesday snow levels crash back down and more snow possible wed evening.

EURO showed this as well, just a bit later into Thursday morning. 

[Snownerd3000]

5 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

According to the GFS it's currently 32 in Seattle. (It's actually 40). 

Which run? 12z looks pretty accurate to me 

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

That 405/5 interchange in Lynnwood looks to get smacked.  Should make traffic a breeze.

You can't make this stuff up... That just NAILS my house

[joelgombiner]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Which run? 12z looks pretty accurate to me 

Haha, you're right! I was looking at the wrong day  Deleted my post since it was just plain wrong. 

[Snownerd3000]

I do have high doubts that we see these temps in only 2.5 hours.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Considering what every model is showing i think a winter storm watch from Olympia north would be a good call and downgrade to advisory for a 1-3 inches possible and 4-8 over Kitsap peninsula.

[Nov1985]

6 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

That 405/5 interchange in Lynnwood looks to get smacked.  Should make traffic a breeze.

With the warmth before and after the heaviest precip, I think NAM's snow depth fcst looks reasonable. Past two runs pretty similar around Seattle to Everett. 18Z and 12Z here.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Seems like the Portland area is really overachieving on highs today. Lots of upper 40s around. Just hope all this clearing can stick around after sunset. Mid level clouds have a tendency to spontaneously form once it gets dark in this kind of pattern, especially in the east metro.

[HuskyMaestro]

39 minutes ago, Phil said:

GFS “upgrade” delayed a day.

 

Have they tried unplugging the GFS and plugging it back in?  

[rsktkr]

I. Am. So. F*cking. Confused.

Zero clue what's going to happen this week.

Yet, I am totally fine with it.