Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, smerfylicious said: Need that about 50 miles north pls It's an interesting forecast. Snow for EUG. Snow for YVR. And rain for both SEA and PDX. It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Mr. Burns will put a giant hairdryer over the city. Okay, that was actually really funny! 1 Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said: it's posted already at the top of this page by snow wizard Oh, I was looking at this: Probabilistic Hazards Outlook (noaa.gov) 1 Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 (edited) 38 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Makes zero sense with a Nina. Kinda makes zero sense on any level. Not many pattern mechanisms that would cause an even east-west split through B.C. like that and produce significant cold in north ID and significant warmth in interior WA. Long range junk gonna junk... Edited November 2, 2022 by BLI snowman 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 hmmm 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Cracked a beer on the clock for Drunkle 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 The surface cold spills more south and west 18z vs 12z. Good freeze for most places. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 (edited) 23 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Possible cold and snow only a Few days away and the grass is still brown from summer here. Unusual! Ours has greened up quite a bit. Been a lot wetter here, I guess. Edited November 2, 2022 by BLI snowman 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: It was decently cold. Had a sub-20°F high at my place in North Bellingham. No question it was decent, but short lived. I'm just saying epic cold Januarys used to happen reasonably often up there where it was cold for long periods. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 If Y'all want to be even more hyped, the PNA is expected to become even more negative in a few days per CPC Teleconnections forecast! 2 Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 35 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: That would be very odd to have a pattern like that where parts of North Central WA and most of Idaho have above normal snow but the Cascades and Olympic are below normal. It implies above normal precip, hence the above normal snow for those areas, but well above normal temps, hence the well below normal snow for the Cascades and the BC mountains. Yet above normal temps would certainly extend to Idaho, Montana, and the BC mountains, wouldn't they? NW flow…ie 2000-01 Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Kinda makes zero sense on any level. Not many pattern mechanisms that would cause an even east-west split through B.C. like that and produce significant cold in north ID and significant warmth in interior WA. Long range junk gonna junk... Good point. There are just so many things wrong with that map. I expect better from ECMWF. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 4 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Looking like Friday could see 24 hour rainfall totals go over 3" in the Portland area and in SW WA. Would love to see PDX's pathetically wimpy all time calendar day record of 2.69" finally go down. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Just now, Kayla said: NW flow…ie 2000-01 NW flow wouldn't cause a huge snowfall shortage on the BC Coast like what is being shown. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Just now, BLI snowman said: Looking like Friday could see 24 hour rainfall totals go over 3" in the Portland area and in SW WA. Would love to see PDX's pathetically wimpy all time calendar day record of 2.69" finally go down. That is weak. SEA did like 5 inches in October 2003. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: No question it was decent, but short lived. I'm just saying epic cold Januarys used to happen reasonably often up there where it was cold for long periods. My experience is just in the past few years, and so far I haven’t been disappointed in my expectation of having better access to Fraser outflow. Might well be disappointed if I was a long-timer. It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: My experience is just in the past few years, and so far I haven’t been disappointed in my expectation of having better access to Fraser outflow. Might well be disappointed if I was a long-timer. I've wanted to live there for a long time. In a big winter the lower Fraser Valley can get flat out wicked. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 What would be a good way to look at what the GFS is outputting in terms of snowfall? Given the fringy temps it's outputting for this time frame, makes sense to see nothing in terms of snow depth and from Kuchera. Most would be melted off or if there's actually any snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Uh oh 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 GFS temperature maps show subfreezing temps for many hours each day early next week. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: That is weak. SEA did like 5 inches in October 2003. And then not only broke the record of 11.62" for November but set a new record of 12.92 in November 2006. At one point, KSEA reported a 12 hour total of 3.13" So yea, kiss our asses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: NW flow wouldn't cause a huge snowfall shortage on the BC Coast like what is being shown. NW flow into Montana. Ridge over the BC coast. 2 Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cloud said: What would be a good way to look at what the GFS is outputting in terms of snowfall? Given the fringy temps it's outputting for this time frame, makes sense to see nothing in terms of snow depth and from Kuchera. Most would be melted off or if there's actually any snow. T Town c-zone? Sounds good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cloud said: What would be a good way to look at what the GFS is outputting in terms of snowfall? Given the fringy temps it's outputting for this time frame, makes sense to see nothing in terms of snow depth and from Kuchera. Most would be melted off or if there's actually any snow. I like snow depth tbh. I feel like it’s showing the most realistic amount. It’s just to early to get 3-4in out a fringe system 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Really hoping the trough shifts east in future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 It would be cool if this was shown on the Euro again 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: The precip anomaly map from the 12Z EPS is pretty interesting... much drier than normal along the BC coast and up into SE Alaska and very wet in Oregon and most of CA. The Seattle area is about normal... but this map will probably look dry up here as well once we get past the system on Friday. Its usually fairly dry in my area when the focus is on OR and CA. We have a similar set up this week. There has been very little precip here since Monday morning... the rain approaches and the falls apart as it moves north. In the big picture... nature finally appears to be delivering the precip to where its needed most. Well said. Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Cold day today. Looks like it will only make 43 here. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: I like snow depth tbh. I feel like it’s showing the most realistic amount. It’s just to early to get 3-4in out a fringe system It shows me getting a dusting on the ground, and if that happens, I will be fine with it, given what a hideous torch the previous several months have been. We all knew those GooFuS maps showing feetz of lowland snow weren’t going to verify. It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 I won't be happy with anything less than 16 inches. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 38 minutes ago, T-Town said: Looks like we’ll probably top out at 45 here. Definitely a wintry day. 44/39 so far here. First low in the 30s this season along with our first sub 50 high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: I like snow depth tbh. I feel like it’s showing the most realistic amount. It’s just to early to get 3-4in out a fringe system Yeah, I would agree here. So to me the 10:1 output is a bit suspect. Grounds will still be relatively warm as well so even if it does fall, a lot of this will be melted off. 5 days out so not gonna focus too much on the details. Just very suspect w/ what being shown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Yeah, I would agree here. So to me the 10:1 output is a bit suspect. Grounds will still be relatively warm as well so even if it does fall, a lot of this will be melted off. 5 days out so not gonna focus too much on the details. Just very suspect w/ what being shown. 10:1 is hard to use lately around here. Either we have had really wet or dry snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Yeah, I would agree here. So to me the 10:1 output is a bit suspect. Grounds will still be relatively warm as well so even if it does fall, a lot of this will be melted off. 5 days out so not gonna focus too much on the details. Just very suspect w/ what being shown. I think a lot of people will actually see some snowflakes at some point…but some people in favored locations will be the only ones with sticking snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: GFS temperature maps show subfreezing temps for many hours each day early next week. Spokane below freezing from Hour 111 on to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Just now, TacomaWx said: I think a lot of people will actually see some snowflakes at some point…but some people in favored locations will be the only ones with sticking snow. Oh, I think we'll see something.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, KeVamgedon said: I won't be happy with anything less than 16 inches. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 (edited) 21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: That is weak. SEA did like 5 inches in October 2003. PDX's 24 hour record is 4.44" in October 1994, and they've gone over 3" in a 24 hour period several times. Just never lined it up right with the calendar, so I've always considered it pretty low-hanging fruit. Looks like most of Friday's rainfall should be done there by 1am. Edited November 2, 2022 by BLI snowman 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by smerfylicious,
Congrats!!!
Recommended by Meatyorologist
40 reactions
Go to this post
Posted by SouthHillJimmy,
Welcome Jimmy!
Recommended by Meatyorologist
21 reactions
Go to this post