westcoastexpat Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 I just can't see how that makes it worthwhile to forsake what is historically the most awesome part of our winter BY FAR. Many of our great Januaries did have minor shots of cold and snow come before them in December anyway. Jim, you're being an a**. No one has told you that you shouldn't want cold in January. Show some respect to other posters even if you don't want the same things. As a mod, you should be setting a better example. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 12z GFS in 2 hours 55 minutes!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 The 06z gfs is a kick in the junk... The next two systems don't go as far south and the Oregon cascades don't get nearly as much snow, especially south of hood... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 When does the first warning shot arrive? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 The ensembles have definitely gotten worse. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 I think you are underestimating the power of emotional attachment. A lot of us are emotionally attached to the Christmas season and having winter weather during the second half of December makes a huge difference. Just like you are emotionally attached to cold anomalies. People will want what they want. No one is saying they don't want an epic January. But we all have our preferences of when we want winter weather. December 2008 was proof that it can get good enough in December. I didn't need anything more than that. Why do we need colder or snowier than December 2008? What I loved about December 2008 was that it wasn't just one epic snowstorm. It was a series of storms and I felt like I was constantly looking at the radar or models for days and days. It was such a fun active period, and it all came at the perfect time. It doesn't need to be better than what we got in 2008. I don't care if January can be "even better". I don't need better. It's better if it's at Christmas for me. There's no debating that. And cold doesn't keep me up all night watching the weather. It's more of an afterthought.Exactly. I don't stay up all night checking the low temps when it's cold lol when we have snow too track then I get excited. I take a snowy December with the holidays over January anytime. Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 When does the first warning shot arrive?Some people had a frost last week. Consider yourself warned. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 When does the first warning shot arrive?Dec. 24th. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 7.21" of rain now on the month. Pretty much right on average. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Brrrr... He's had some really good tweets lately about a more Nina pattern coming. https://twitter.com/MJVentrice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Looks like the Cascades south of Santiam Pass got hammered last night. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 The ensembles have definitely gotten worse. Time to find the nearest cliff. 1 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Today's CFSv2 Monthly has the coldest anomalies focused on SW BC, but a huge swath of the west coast up and down is also cold for December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 12zzzzzz Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Today's CFSv2 Monthly has the coldest anomalies focused on SW BC, but a huge swath of the west coast up and down is also cold for December.You don't get to have all the fun, those anomalies also spread into Whatcom County =P http://i.imgur.com/0K36ME9.jpg 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Dive baby dive!http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Time to find the nearest cliff. No doubt. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 You don't get to have all the fun, those anomalies also spread into Whatcom County =P http://i.imgur.com/0K36ME9.jpg Does this mean we torch in January again? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Not a lot of excitement so far over the 12z. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Not a lot of excitement so far over the 12z. We might not even get a warning shot out of this at this rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Thanks! It's an amazing and fun job! And I get to travel all over the state which is also such fun! (Btw we transferred in cats in from Willamette Humane just this week since they were getting overcrowded and needed some help) That's so cool! We actually rescued our cats from the Oregon Human Society, they do some amazing work there. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 We might not even get a warning shot out of this at this rate. Real warning shots are usually preceded by modeled warning shots. In other words, the models often give several "warning shots" too early for pattern changes, etc. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 I feel like we'll probably get pummeled while I am out of state the 14-22nd. Probably our only action for the winter. lol Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 I feel like we'll probably get pummeled while I am out of state the 14-22nd. Probably our only action for the winter. lolI'm starting to feel a timeframe similar to 2008...the 13th thru whenever timeframe. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 I'm starting to feel a timeframe similar to 2008...the 13th thru whenever timeframe.Perfect Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 I'm starting to feel a timeframe similar to 2008...the 13th thru whenever timeframe. Yeah...I would have missed pretty much all the goods in 2008...lol. Oh well. I am still keying in on January. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Not bad at all. You're right. Last night's updated run of the Day 15 00z EURO Ensemble looked great per Michael Ventrice. Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice"Wow look at the amplitude of the ridge forecast to build in over the North-Northwest Pacific on Day 15 per ECMWF Ens" http://i.imgur.com/2xKLCgL.jpg https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/801478685652086784 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl Bonner Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Here it comes... warning shots leading up to an epic January is exactly what I would prefer for a wonderful holiday season. To me, a few days, or a couple of small cold snaps or little snowfalls in December would definitely ADD to the holiday cheer and set the mood. Gazing out at snow showers with Christmas lights in the mix at any point in December is enough to bring forth the child in any of us... but when I think of epic snow and cold weather... i think January. It is better suited for January. No holiday shopping or stress included. I think we should take a poll and have everyone give their desired dates for arctic air and snow. . . For any given 10 day period... MARCH!!! :P Actually I'd say the most poetic time for extreme cold would be late January or early February. Something we haven't see too much of in recent decades. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Some ensemble members on 12z run showing dropping off at the end. First -10c/-15c members we've seen this year I think. Operational was a warm outlier in the Dec 5-7 period. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.pngDefinitely the largest number of cold members we have seen so far. Probably going to get cold somewhere in western NA around then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 I feel like we'll probably get pummeled while I am out of state the 14-22nd. Probably our only action for the winter. lolI know it's completely unscientific, but I'll be in Chicago Dec. 17th-Jan. 2nd it just feels right we'd get hit while I'm gone. Its confirmation bias, but I swear it finds a way to snow here every single time I leave in the Winter. 6 day blast Dec. 17th-22nd it is I guess? Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Per Michael Ventrice, the reason why we get the +300m anomalous ridge over the North Pacific. Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice"Holy West Pacific irrortational winds. This is the precursor to the +300m anomalous ridge over the North Pacific in the 11-15d" http://i.imgur.com/VKVNpVY.jpg https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/801479284258963458 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Jim, which analogs are you looking at for this winter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 I know it's completely unscientific, but I'll be in Chicago Dec. 17th-Jan. 2nd it just feels right we'd get hit while I'm gone. Its confirmation bias, but I swear it finds a way to snow here every single time I leave in the Winter. 6 day blast Dec. 17th-22nd it is I guess?Thanks for going out of town. Opens a really nice window for us. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 I absolutely agree that everyone is free to having their opinion on what they want out of winter. I do, however, find it tiring that any time someone posts about wanting December over January, Jim pops in to tell them that they are wrong to want it. Not cool.I will agree with you here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 The 12z run was definitely the best looking GFS ensembles of the season. Control run looks like was an outlier. Models might be beginning to hone in on something later in week 2. Will be interested to see the 12z Euro control run at week 2 and the ensembles later today. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Little bit lost in all the extended range talk is the system moving in later tonight into Thanksgiving day. Looking like some pretty big flooding concerns for the North Oregon coastal areas. 12z ECMWF is even showing nearly 3" of rainfall for PDX and nearing 4" on the western fridges of the Willamette Valley over the next 48 hours. Edit: Flood Watch just issued by the NWS for the Willamette Valley and Coastal areas. 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Well looking at the ensembles we have pretty much lost the mid-range, but the long range is improving. Carrot meet Stick. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.