December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A few sunset shots from the Silverton Hills this evening...

 

[Kayla]

Down to 43 at PDX.

 

And dp of 34. Promising. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hrrr seems to be showing an increase in shower activity across NW Oregon between about 9p-2a

[Timmy]

Hrrr seems to be showing an increase in shower activity across NW Oregon between about 9p-2a

That's what I have been saying!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=nwus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016120423&fh=18&xpos=0&ypos=50

[Deweydog]

And dp of 34. Promising.

Typical for a NW'erly flow advection setup. Unfortunately by morning we'll be into the low level southerly flow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Typical for a NW'erly flow advection setup. Unfortunately by morning we'll be into the low level southerly flow.

 

Yeah seeing those chilly dp's is a good sign for people like Timmy and I, but it doesn't mean a ton for the valley floor. 

[Timmy]

I'm not well versed in cz but it looks like maybe something developing over Everett ? http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/radar.shtml

[Bryant]

That poor dude deserves some serious snow.

12z Canadian would be his friend

[Jbolin]

I'm not well versed in cz but it looks like maybe something developing over Everett ? http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/radar.shtml

False echos, likely birds in the radar beam sweep.

[snow_wizard]

Well I've finally done it...December 4, 2016: 32 degrees.

I beat you by a mile this year. I eeked out one freezing low temp in November.

[Front Ranger]

Holy crap!

 

The 18z ensemble looks like a 2 year old kid got ahold of some crayons. Some wildly cold members to say the least. At face value the 18z has a nice snow event for Seattle around day 10.

 

Lol nice to be talking about possibilities 10 days out while there's a very possible nice snow event within 24-36 hours as well.

[snow_wizard]

Already down to 36 here.

[Gradient Keeper]

From the Portland AFD...could get very interesting, although I am no fan of freezing rain.

 

"Current model solutions seem to indicate winds shifting

southerly at some point Thursday afternoon. However, the GEM has a

nightmare scenario of east winds continuing through Friday morning

with close to 2 inches of QPF in the period."

That would be bad and severe enough, then you add 40+mph east winds and you're talking very likely a devastating if not catastrophic event.

[snow_wizard]

Lol nice to be talking about possibilities 10 days out while there's a very possible nice snow event within 24-36 hours as well.

For sure. Winter!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

By the way, rain/snow mix, 40 degrees near west Gresham. This bodes well for tonight-tomorrow.

 

Oh yeah, 18z ensembles, very niceeeee. Watch the December 11th - 15th period.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I beat you by a mile this year. I eeked out one freezing low temp in November.

 

I've had about 31" of rain since October 1st, so I probably beat you there

[Front Ranger]

Whens the last time we experienced one over running event after another until winter was over?

 

The closest (in some places) would be 1992-93, 1978-79, and 1948-49. For the airport era.

[crf450ish]

Lol nice to be talking about possibilities 10 days out while there's a very possible nice snow event within 24-36 hours as well.

No doubt. Makes the "warmup" between, or lack thereof (hopefully) that much more acceptable. 

[Front Ranger]

Here's the latest 18 hr total snowfall maps from the HRRR.

 

 

[Heavy Snow]

From the Portland AFD...could get very interesting, although I am no fan of freezing rain.

 

"Current model solutions seem to indicate winds shifting

southerly at some point Thursday afternoon. However, the GEM has a

nightmare scenario of east winds continuing through Friday morning

with close to 2 inches of QPF in the period."

Based on all the models I have seen and also factoring in past experiences, the GEM solution is the most likely outcome. I don't see PDX losing it's strong cold East winds until Friday mid-morning at the earliest. This is going to be a classic over-running event, one for the ages.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Environment Canada isn't biting on the snowfall potential for tomorrow. The Victoria forecast doesn't show so much as a snowflake, a straight rain-to-cold transition. Even the cold isn't that impressive, a high of 41F for Tuesday. The Nanaimo forecast only calls for high elevation snow and otherwise mixed precipitation. The 18z wasn't all that great for potential in the Victoria area but absolutely crushes the east side of the island. With a current dewpoint of 28F here and things quickly cooling down under the clear skies, somehow I feel they're going to bust this one and they're almost certainly going to bust the Nanaimo forecast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Baker City, OR scored about 3" of snow today. Currently 24 with a 14mph wind.

[Prairiedog]

Rain, hail mix here at 315ft.  Temp down to 37f from 41f most of the day.  High was at 5am at 44f.  20 miles SE of Portland.  10 miles ESE of Happy Valley. 

[MossMan]

Wow between the 12z and 18z GFS ensembles, things have definitely taken a turn towards the better in the LR. With any luck we will bounce from two cold/snow events this week to a cold/snow event in week two. Very promising.

 

On another note, I like seeing the NWS mention in their AFD the possibility for an arctic front to form tomorrow evening/night. Those are always fun to track and can drop unexpected snow amounts if it gets going.

 

Temp of 32 here with the slushy concoction that fell earlier already icing up.

Fun times! And way overdue!

[Timmy]

Baker City, OR scored about 3" of snow today. Currently 24 with a 14mph wind.

I'm curious, where on the map is "your location". I know the general area, just more curious where it falls on the oregon county map

[HighlandExperience]

Here's the latest 18 hr total snowfall maps from the HRRR.

 

seattle.gif

 

portland.gif

Look weak

[Front Ranger]

Look weak

 

Well, you have to remember that's really only the morning snow for tomorrow. Doesn't include whatever might come tomorrow evening, which is when the NWS has the WSW for.

[TT-SEA]

My boys are debating whether to do their homework tonight or count on a late start.   

[FroYoBro]

My boys are debating whether to do their homework tonight or count on a late start.   

 

YOU TELL THEM TO DO THEIR HOMEWORK RIGHT NOW.

[stuffradio]

YOU TELL THEM TO DO THEIR HOMEWORK RIGHT NOW.

And tell them to send stuffradio a foot of snow for every hour they delay that homework!

[Front Ranger]

Latest HRRR moves up the timing a bit with precip moving into south Puget Sound in about 4-5 hours.

[GHweatherChris]

Should have rescheduled our Disneyland trip lol, just how hoping our flight isn't delayed in the morning.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

**** homework!! Let them have fun tim!!!

[Randyc321]

Down to 35 at 6:20 on east Bainbridge.

[luminen]

35F and continuing to drop here. 

 

Skies overhead are still clear while I was outside walking just now.

[Weather101]

**** homework!! Let them have fun tim!!!

Who cares about education when it's snowing.

There's always summer school

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 39 at PDX. OMG

[HighlandExperience]

Latest HRRR moves up the timing a bit with precip moving into south Puget Sound in about 4-5 hours.

 

That is probably a good thing. 

[Dave]

34 degrees with clear skies in Eugene at the moment.  First freeze of the season should finally occur within a couple of hours.

[Front Ranger]

That is probably a good thing. 

 

Really gets things going around your area by 5-6 am.