PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Put them on something and plug them in. READ ALL THE WARNING LABELS!

I would add to plug them in to make sure they work before putting them up.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I would add to plug them in to make sure they work before putting them up.

[Gradient Keeper]

Columbia Basin cold pool is looking rather solid. It should become quite cold overnight helping to fuel even colder air through the Gorge into PDX metro.

[Perturbed Member]

I'm not sure how much sense it makes to look at ensembles at this close of a range, but just for fun:

EPS probability of greater than 1 inch snow fall for OR and WA tomorrow.

 

GEFS

 

 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS is a big time La Nina run! One chilly/cold trough after another.

[Terreboner]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

18z GFS is a big time La Nina run! One chilly/cold trough after another.

Could be one of those mountain snowfall years I remember as a kid.

[North_County]

Preference time:

A lot of snow that melts quickly? Or a little snow that sticks around for a while?

I definitely got the latter this go-around.

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

I'm not sure how much sense it makes to look at ensembles at this close of a range, but just for fun:

EPS probability of greater than 1 inch snow fall for OR and WA tomorrow.

 

GEFS

 

 

 

 

One thing going for us at the moment is the fact the NWS isn’t hitting on it at all. In a perfect world it would be the 12/1/05 doppelgänger.

At this point I’d go T-1” here in the Clark County lowlands with quite a bit of snow in the air. 

[FroYoBro]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

One thing going for us at the moment is the fact the NWS isn’t hitting on it at all. In a perfect world it would be the 12/1/05 doppelgänger.

At this point I’d go T-1” here in the Clark County lowlands with quite a bit of snow in the air. 

I was also going to mention that. 

We have a chance as long as the NWS stays silent. 

[Doinko]

22 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

One thing going for us at the moment is the fact the NWS isn’t hitting on it at all. In a perfect world it would be the 12/1/05 doppelgänger.

At this point I’d go T-1” here in the Clark County lowlands with quite a bit of snow in the air. 

Do you think we have a worse/better chance down here? I'm not feeling too great about it but of course there could be a surprise

[Doinko]

Getting some loud wind gusts now

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS through Day 10 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps. Not bad!

[Gradient Keeper]

Drunk Uncle 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[ShawniganLake]

Weather summary
for British Columbia
issued by Environment Canada
at 9:03 a.m. PST Saturday 3 December 2022.

Discussion.

A low pressure offshore brought another round of heavy snow to the 
B.C. south coast, mainly on Vancouver Island, from December 2, 2022 
to early morning on December 3, 2022. Here is a summary of snowfall 
accumulations. 

Comox: 17 cm 

North Courtenay: 12 cm 

Nanaimo: 9 cm 

North Cowichan: 4 cm 

Port Alberni: 7 cm 

Malahat (340 m above sea level): 15 cm 

Powell River: 7 cm 

Port Mellon: 12 cm 

An arctic airmass brought some record daily minimum temperatures on 
December 2, 2022. 

Abbotsford Area (Abbotsford A) 
New record of -9.8 
Old record of -6.2 set in 2014 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Agassiz Area (Agassiz RCS) 
New record of -9.7 
Old record of -9.0 set in 1985 
Records in this area have been kept since 1889 

Clinton Area (Clinton RCS) 
New record of -28.8 
Old record of -27.0 set in 1985 
Records in this area have been kept since 1974 

Hope Area (Hope Airport) 
New record of -11.8 
Old record of -8.3 set in 1970 
Records in this area have been kept since 1936 

Lytton Area (Lytton RCS) 
New record of -20.7 
Old record of -17.6 set in 1985 
Records in this area have been kept since 1921 

Malahat Area (Malahat) 
New record of -4.6 
Old record of -4.3 set in 1996 
Records in this area have been kept since 1986 

Osoyoos Area (Osoyoos CS) 
New record of -18.3 
Old record of -16.5 set in 1985 
Records in this area have been kept since 1954 

Princeton Area (Princeton CS) 
New record of -28.5 
Old record of -26.6 set in 1985 
Records in this area have been kept since 1893 

Squamish Area (Squamish Airport) 
New record of -11.7 
Old record of -7.2 set in 2014 
Records in this area have been kept since 1960 

Vancouver Area (Vancouver Intl A) 
New record of -5.7 
Old record of -5.6 set in 1954 
Records in this area have been kept since 1896 

Whistler Area (Whistler - Nesters) 
New record of -17.7 
Old record of -13.9 set in 1984 
Records in this area have been kept since 1950 

White Rock Area (White Rock Campbell Scientific) 
New record of -6.4 
Old record of -5.4 set in 2014 
Records in this area have been kept since 1929 

Note: the temperature records reported here have been derived from a 
selection of historical stations in each geographic area that were 
active during the period of record.

 

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Trees lost quite a bit of snow today but don't think much melted on the ground.

How much snow is on the ground at your place?

[Snownerd3000]

This setup reminds me of 07 where we had low snow levels for a long period. 

[TacomaWx]

44/33 today. 0.2” of snow earlier this morning but pretty much all of our snow is gone now just a bit remains. 

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, Terreboner said:

More precip!!!!!!!!!

 

All dependant on the persistence of the heaviest band and how much the outflow influences the overspreading precipitation.  I think it will be more dynamic than what models show.  Somebody is going to get nailed for at least 6-8" IMO.

We did well on 1/10/17, different setup of course but I'm hoping for some persistent banding near/around the West Hills like that time.

[umadbro]

[MossMan]

The bleeding has stopped for today. Driveway snow/slush has gone back to hard chunks of ice. Temp down to 34, DP 32. Also my deck snow pile situation because I know you are all itching for an update. 

[mtep]

Beautiful day to blow up cans in the woods. 

[Doinko]

One big thing I notice on models today is that some produce a band of heavier precipitation north of us tomorrow afternoon...but what if that happens directly over the cold air in the metro area? That would be more than 1/2″ snow. But for now we’ll go conservative with the forecast. There’s still quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to how much precipitation. 

- From Mark Nelsen, there's a chance!

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

One big thing I notice on models today is that some produce a band of heavier precipitation WAY north of us tomorrow afternoon in northern Snohomish County...but what if that happens directly over the cold air in the east Stanwood area? That would be more than 2 feet of snow. But for now we’ll go conservative with the forecast and only call for a foot and a half. There’s still quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to how much precipitation but that region of Washington State should be in amazing shape! 

- From Mark Nelsen, there's a chance!

Fixed it for you! 

[Phishy Wx]

Milky Cirrus Sunshine most of the day High was 26, now 24

 

Hoping for a little overperformance tomorrow. Higher Ratios should get us at least 2" I think

[Anti Marine Layer]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If you guys really want to see what the hood canal area is capable of then look at this! I'm right on the line of the hood canal sweet spot and normally my area does really good but this time the cold air dome just wasn't far enough east to really get me into the zone. This area between seabeck and lake tahuya is always the sweet spot and they are lower elevation than me but because they are closer to the Olympics the cold dome is deeper there sometimes.  There is 18 on the ground.  Lastnight there was 21 on the ground before it settled.  Normally if they have 21 I would have 18 but not this time!

[umadbro]

Portland NWS basically says no go. Spotty accumulations in the west hills is about it. 

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Portland NWS basically says no go. Spotty accumulations in the west hills is about it. 

Surprised they didn't go WSW 4-12" of snow

[FroYoBro]

3 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Portland NWS basically says no go. Spotty accumulations in the west hills is about it. 

Nice. I'm going to take work off tomorrow to watch it snow. 

[TT-SEA]

44 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

How much snow is on the ground at your place?

There was exactly 12 inches the other day... probably around 9 or 10 now.      That is between 22.86 and 25.40 cm to you.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The dewpoint is always amazing what it can do. 35 degrees but finally a 30 degrees dewpoint and the ground is crunchy frozen just like that. Still have some snow on the trees.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There was exactly 12 inches the other day... probably around 9 or 10 now.      That is between 22.86 and 25.40 cm to you.  

You see the pic of 18 inches I posted? Isn't that crazy?? As a crow flies it is 4 miles from here lol. 

[MossMan]

32! 

[Terreboner]

Low cloud shield already creeping up the eastern spine of the Cascades.  Looks to be just south of Bend and I can see them outside my window.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Amazing how far this has trended north the last few days. It would be cool to have it snowing from Seattle to Portland at the same time. If this was coming at night it would be snow for south sound no problem but with light precip rates and coming at peak heating during the day I just don't know about this one. I think between Seattle and tacoma it will be a light non sticking snow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

32! 

Nice!! Your turn will come. This has just been a very strange set up the last week.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Amazing how far this has trended north the last few days. It would be cool to have it snowing from Seattle to Portland at the same time. If this was coming at night it would be snow for south sound no problem but with light precip rates and coming at peak heating during the day I just don't know about this one. I think between Seattle and tacoma it will be a light non sticking snow.

18Z ECMWF shows the same thing... this has become a widespread snow event.    Not huge totals but lots of people are going to see snow at the same time.

[jakerepp]

Been raining for 5 straight hours here. Has to be at least a quarter inch so far. Also running something like a -17 departure today. Long line of cars out right in front of the Safeway doors to let people load groceries close to the exit. The locals are scared of rain.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Amazing how far this has trended north the last few days. It would be cool to have it snowing from Seattle to Portland at the same time. If this was coming at night it would be snow for south sound no problem but with light precip rates and coming at peak heating during the day I just don't know about this one. I think between Seattle and tacoma it will be a light non sticking snow.

Hoping for an overperformance here! Either way should be a very nice cold day with some flurries, I won't mind that at all

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z ECMWF shows the same thing... this has become a widespread snow event.    Not huge totals but lots of people are going to see snow at the same time.

I just hope that band sets up over Portland for some heavier snow like the GFS/GEM show.