Phishy Wx Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 Stratus deck and 20, Flurries in progress. doesn't take much to snow when it's this cold and cloudy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 48 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: I know Mazama isn't particularly close to your cabin, but their snowfall stats are quite impressive. They already have 38.6" on the season which is good for 6th most up to through December 1. Normal is about 18". They average about 120" a year and the biggest years there are also insane. Both 1970-71 and 1996-97 had more than 220". We have very interesting precip gradients here on the East slopes. Mazama is about 13-14 miles from Winthrop, but averages 50 more inches of snow (120 to 70). Similar to differences between Leavenworth and Cashmere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: ECMWF shows mid 50s in Seattle and 60s in the Columbia basin next weekend. It also shows a foot of 35F snow here next Thurs/Fri before the warm air makes its way up. For some reason I'm a bit skeptical... 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 Total snow per the 12Z ECMWF over the next 10 days... the snow to the north and south of Seattle comes next Friday as that large moisture plume overruns the cold air in place. And with so much snow in the mountains... a one day warm up won't hurt much particularly with the cold air coming back in so fast. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: We have very interesting precip gradients here on the East slopes. Mazama is about 13-14 miles from Winthrop, but averages 50 more inches of snow (120 to 70). Similar to differences between Leavenworth and Cashmere. Mazama is a snow magnet. They get way way more than my cabin. And even over at my cabin i have another piece of land just 4 miles away that is 500ft higher elevation and that property gets about 30% more snow than my cabin. I also picked a spot to build that is facing north lol. Bad for solar but good for holding the snow on the trees. Makes a massive difference. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Then the cold air comes rushing back in the next day... I was going to say, once that front goes through the cold air aloft will SURGE back in. GFS shows this as well. 4 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: We have very interesting precip gradients here on the East slopes. Mazama is about 13-14 miles from Winthrop, but averages 50 more inches of snow (120 to 70). Similar to differences between Leavenworth and Cashmere. They also show similar minimal differences in elevation. Both Cashmere and Winthrop are only about 300-400' lower than Leavenworth and Mazama. So it really is the rain shadow gradation. Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Total snow per the 12Z ECMWF over the next 10 days... the snow to the north and south of Seattle comes next Friday as that large moisture plume overruns the cold air in place. And with so much snow in the mountains... a one day warm up won't hurt much particularly with the cold air coming back in so fast. That's the 24-hour map, not the total map. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 54 minutes ago, joelgombiner said: The flip side of this ridge is that the North Slope of Alaska is currently the same temperature as the Puget Sound region. That's about 40 degrees above normal for them. that ain't good for sea ice oof 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said: They also show similar minimal differences in elevation. Both Cashmere and Winthrop are only about 300-400' lower than Leavenworth and Mazama. So it really is the rain shadow gradation. Exactly. And the vegetation is so much different. You go from forested hills and green all over the place to hills with grass and sagebrush with lots of yellow and brown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: So sad. Makes you wonder how many near death experiences we narrowly avoid and don't even know it. I had a surreal moment not too long ago where I was at a stoplight and it turned green, but I didn't see it right away because I was looking at my phone. When I looked up and was about to hit the gas, I simultaneously heard a horn blaring - a semi was blowing through the light at about 50 mph. If I had been paying close attention and pulled forward as soon the light turned green as I do most the time, he almost certainly would have slammed into me. Driver's side, so would have been a direct hit and I probably wouldn't be here typing this. Kinda shook me up. 3 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 (edited) 1 minute ago, Front Ranger said: I had a surreal moment not too long ago where I was at a stoplight and it turned green, but I didn't see it right away because I was looking at my phone. When I looked up and was about to hit the gas, I simultaneously heard a horn blaring - a semi was blowing through the light at about 50 mph. If I had been paying close attention and pulled forward as soon the light turned green as I do most the time, he almost certainly would have slammed into me. Driver's side, so would have been a direct hit and I probably wouldn't be here typing this. Kinda shook me up. Thank God you were checking the forum at the light. Edited December 2, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew 3 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Front Ranger said: I had a surreal moment not too long ago where I was at a stoplight and it turned green, but I didn't see it right away because I was looking at my phone. When I looked up and was about to hit the gas, I simultaneously heard a horn blaring - a semi was blowing through the light at about 50 mph. If I had been paying close attention and pulled forward as soon the light turned green as I do most the time, he almost certainly would have slammed into me. Driver's side, so would have been a direct hit and I probably wouldn't be here typing this. Kinda shook me up. My wife slaps my hand if I go to pick up my phone at a stoplight. Probably for good reason. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Well... this run of the ECMWF gets very warm with that system next weekend. This is a snow killer for me with a strong SW wind and warm air aloft. But the details could change with cold air available to the north. This is a set up for freezing rain for us. Cold air damming in these situations often keeps us below freezing way longer than modeled. Glad cold air comes back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: My wife slaps my hand if I go to pick up my phone at a stoplight. Probably for good reason. It's scary how many semi truck drivers i see looking at there phone driving down the highway, see it all the time driving over the pass. 3 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 Strong radar over work and nothing falling. Had been snowing all morning in port orchard at 300ft here. 1 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Total snow per the 12Z ECMWF over the next 10 days... the snow to the north and south of Seattle comes next Friday as that large moisture plume overruns the cold air in place. And with so much snow in the mountains... a one day warm up won't hurt much particularly with the cold air coming back in so fast. Can you post just this weekend ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Strong radar over work and nothing falling. Had been snowing all morning in port orchard at 300ft here. Radar has showed snow over my head for 30min and not one snowflake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, Timmy said: Can you post just this weekend ? 3 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: My wife slaps my hand if I go to pick up my phone at a stoplight. Probably for good reason. But in this case it just may have saved my life! I rarely look at it while actually driving. 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 Light snow starting to fall actually now from that band 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 EPS looks great 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 21 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: that ain't good for sea ice oof True. Sea ice extent running about 2 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. Particularly weak sea ice development around Alaska. 2 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtep Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 Snow! Nothing sticking at the moment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 26 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: I had a surreal moment not too long ago where I was at a stoplight and it turned green, but I didn't see it right away because I was looking at my phone. When I looked up and was about to hit the gas, I simultaneously heard a horn blaring - a semi was blowing through the light at about 50 mph. If I had been paying close attention and pulled forward as soon the light turned green as I do most the time, he almost certainly would have slammed into me. Driver's side, so would have been a direct hit and I probably wouldn't be here typing this. Kinda shook me up. put your phone up when driving. hands free/bluetooth and/or carplay. put the device in the glovebox or backseat. Sorry you almost got hit but distracted driving is as bad as impaired driving, IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Doesn't even show that warm spike that the ECMWF showed. 1 3 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: Doesn't even show that warm spike that the ECMWF showed. Deep breathes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 EPS is ROCK solid. Kind of starting to get the feeling the hammer is going to drop at some point. Probably not for a while yet, but it's coming. 6 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 By the way. Who told you the worm was going to turn? Of course I am not one to toot my own horn, but come on. Credit where credit is due. 5 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seattle Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 It would be a bummer to persistently be in this coolish pattern, with the goods close by, but not just quite here. 2022-23 Winter: 11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25" 12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace 12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7 1/31: trace | 2/14: trace | 2/22: .2 | 2/26: 1.0" Total: 6.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 Flurries in north Seattle. Light east wind picking up a little. Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 44 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: put your phone up when driving. hands free/bluetooth and/or carplay. put the device in the glovebox or backseat. Sorry you almost got hit but distracted driving is as bad as impaired driving, IMO I don't think you quite followed what happened... Agree that distracted driving is just as bad as driving under the influence. Almost definitely causes more accidents these days than impaired driving, since a lot more people are distracted by their devices than impaired. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: 50 years old today!!! CRAP Happy Birthday buddy. A White, Snowy Birthday. Well, already off to a good start in my book. Have a good one! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: put your phone up when driving. hands free/bluetooth and/or carplay. put the device in the glovebox or backseat. Sorry you almost got hit but distracted driving is as bad as impaired driving, IMO Saw a very interesting study a while back that noted that hands free phone calls were almost as bad as talking on the phone physically, it's an attention issue to converse with someone regardless of how you're doing it. However, talking to a physical passenger in the other seat shows marked risk reduction in comparison to a hands free phone call as it is generally speaking 4 eyes on the road. Who would have thunk it 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Seattle said: It would be a bummer to persistently be in this coolish pattern, with the goods close by, but not just quite here. Well it's a lot better than last year. SLE 12/1/21: 65/43 12/1/22: 41/32 IMBY 12/1/21: 62/46 12/1/22: 34/30 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 53 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: ECMWF shows mid 50s in Seattle and 60s in the Columbia basin next weekend. You can't let that happen. No. Thanks, Tim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 Couple flakes starting to fly here… but looking at the radar, it’s a bit deceptive. Not really reaching the ground yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 Light flurries in Lynden at noon. Should probably just call it a day and go home early. Don't wanna be caught out in these conditions. Still low 20's with snow blowing from north to south, so someone left the outflow spigot open again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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