PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

But thats still a cold onshore flow right?

A lot of days will have offshore flow.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Correct.

I dunno.  A lot of the time things look like this.

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I like our chances for this week tbh. I think favored areas around Seattle could get 3-6in 

Would be amazing if it snowed again this week. 

[Olive1010]

Any chances of snow more south?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Light snow here and 33 degrees. 

[snow_wizard]

A tiny bit of northerly gradient seems to be pushing some slightly drier air southward in the Seattle area right now.  The DP at SEA is down to 33 now.

[Kolk1604]

8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I like our chances for this week tbh. I think favored areas around Seattle could get 3-6in 

I'll go with all areas. Euro will lead the way with a northern blast 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Any chances of snow more south?

The ECMWF showed quite a bit down there on the 12z run.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For comparison... here is the 00Z ICON and 00Z GEM through next Tuesday.      

The GEM has the same amount of snow here as the GFS, but the low is in a much better position for snow on the GEM than the GFS. The low comes in south of Portland on the GEM.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Any chances of snow more south?

[OysterPrintout]

3 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Any chances of snow more south?

Mt. Shasta looks good

[Olive1010]

So what are the chances here? Because wouldn't the NWS be mentioning it?

[snow_wizard]

I'm sure frustrated by this muck that has settled in here.  Really ruining the low temps in this area.

[Olive1010]

36F here

[snow_wizard]

48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For comparison... here is the 00Z ICON and 00Z GEM through next Tuesday.      

I'm not buying that.  That's a pretty legit cold trough coming up.

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm sure frustrated by this muck that has settled in here.  Really ruining the low temps in this area.

Yea was just outside. All the snow is melting and their is a heavy mist over the entire area. Really cold and damp too. 

[snow_wizard]

GEFS continues to trend colder over the next week.  850s drop below -6 on the mean a few times.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Yea was just outside. All the snow is melting and their is a heavy mist over the entire area. Really cold and damp too. 

We just ended up in the absolute worst spot yesterday and it's still haunting us.  We would be much colder if that little bit of precip yesterday had never happened.

[SnowySeeker50]

 

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm sure frustrated by this muck that has settled in here.  Really ruining the low temps in this area.

Been like that since the snow stopped yesterday, just misty/foggy. Just makes it a yucky slushy melt.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is 1am Saturday morning the 3rd and the icon was showing rain and it was snowing all along the canal and almost the entire kitsap peninsula along with a bunch of other places. The forecast was created the day before the event. Icon has a really bad warm bias. The good news though is if it shows any snow at all it will be a blizzard.

[Front Ranger]

36 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The numbers are pretty similar to this past week IMO.

I'd like to see more support beyond the GFS.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

 

Been like that since the snow stopped yesterday, just misty/foggy. Just makes it a yucky slushy melt.

Yup.  Sucks being so close to much colder and drier air.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I'd like to see more support beyond the GFS.

You did see the 12z ECMWF I presume?

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is 1am Saturday morning the 3rd and the icon was showing rain and it was snowing all along the canal and almost the entire kitsap peninsula along with a bunch of other places. The forecast was created the day before the event. Icon has a really bad warm bias. The good news though is if it shows any snow at all it will be a blizzard.

Sure snowed here with that!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is 1am Saturday morning the 3rd and the icon was showing rain and it was snowing all along the canal and almost the entire kitsap peninsula along with a bunch of other places. The forecast was created the day before the event. Icon has a really bad warm bias. The good news though is if it shows any snow at all it will be a blizzard.

The ICON also shows a much nicer track for the low than the GFS next Saturday. It comes ashore just south of the Olympics.

[Omegaraptor]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm sure frustrated by this muck that has settled in here.  Really ruining the low temps in this area.

Corvallis and Eugene pulled out highs of 37 today. Yeah, it was technically “fake cold” but it was properly chilly and wintry and helping us get a cold monthly average either way.

[snow_wizard]

My opinion is you can just tell by the 500mb pattern being shown there will be lowland snow.  We have yet to really see just how good the GFS upgrade will be on that.  Obviously the surface snowfall maps are still a sheit show, but I highly doubt there will be no snow with those huge amounts being shown.

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

I'm really curious about what the 0z European is going to show.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Corvallis and Eugene pulled out highs of 37 today. Yeah, it was technically “fake cold” but it was properly chilly and wintry and helping us get a cold monthly average either way.

If the GFS and 12z ECMWF are correct the first half of December will be really cold.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You did see the 12z ECMWF I presume?

You know what, for some reason I was looking at yesterday's 12z earlier. Much better! Hopefully tonight's continues the theme.

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z ECMWF Day 1

Here.We.Go

Day 5+ has my attention. Hopeful for improvements! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Rob's got this tonight!!! Let's go!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Here.We.Go

Day 5+ has my attention. Hopeful for improvements! 

C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[SouthHillFrosty]

[BLI snowman]

18 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I'd like to see more support beyond the GFS.

Euro was pretty dope earlier. We'll see.

[Omegaraptor]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If the GFS and 12z ECMWF are correct the first half of December will be really cold.

Eugene is running a -6 for December so far. Bend at -9.4!

Definitely some December 2016 vibes so far.

[SnarkyGoblin]

Light rain in Fremont.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3