PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[FroYoBro]

The 18z GFS shows a hell of a cold blast for the Rocky Mountains. Plenty of low level cold air would be coming through the gorge still. 

[Perturbed Member]

18z GFS vs 12z ECMWF

Hard to believe these labels aren't flipped. 18z GFS refusing to be unreasonably cold in the long range? 

[Snownerd3000]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It's crazy.   I didn't even think this was possible.   And it's not just one run.   We are begging the GFS to join in on the ECMWF craziness and it keeps refusing!

The problem is the EURO is leading the way with the cold and its offering Sherry when the Goofus ordered straight moonshine.  The more desperate it gets, the more it will cave to the euro.

[MikeInEverett]

Feel like the GFS deserves some respect points back if it somehow gets this right

[Deweydog]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

And the fact that the 18Z GFS lines up with the EPS ensemble members... but the ECMWF has been consistent.   

The Euro solution, especially the back end, is pretty much nonsensical. The block is the catalyst and the only way it works is with an accelerated shortwave as it migrates NW of AK. They’re not phasing nearly as well as of some the runs 24 hours ago. 

[RCola]

I've gotta say, it's been a heck of a roller coaster following this thread and the Mid-Atlantic thread over on American Weather. So many passionate weather weenies hoping the exact opposite things happen. Models are really all over the place with this one. Better to flip a coin honestly.

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

The 18z GFS shows a hell of a cold blast for the Rocky Mountains. Plenty of low level cold air would be coming through the gorge still. 

Yep, strong inversion. Good easterly flow with bitterly cold air in the basin. Warm SW flow aloft. 

 

 

[Snownerd3000]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Do I think a EURO operational solution will happen, of course not. But it's clear to see where the GFS goes off the rails and its pretty early on. Colder GFS operational runs ahead!

[Christensen87]

Major east wind event later next week if something like this verifies. 

[WildrootParable]

Some dear friends just moved into my neck of the woods after ten years of living in/near Chicago. Before their arrival, they asked me to turn on the heating in the house "to protect the pipes". 

I thought that was hilarious Midwest thinking, considering the pipes are very well insulated in the house, and told them, "It's not going to be anywhere near cold enough to hurt the pipes, I promise." But I did it anyway, out of respect for them. 

Now that I'm reading back over today's forum pages, I think I maybe laughed too soon... 

[SnarkyGoblin]

34 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Remember when local papers actually had local reporting... Let's not turn this into political commentary on the media please. I'm just saying quality local journalism is pretty much a lost art. 

Have you ever subscribed to a newspaper?  Local to you or otherwise.

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, RCola said:

I've gotta say, it's been a heck of a roller coaster following this thread and the Mid-Atlantic thread over on American Weather. So many passionate weather weenies hoping the exact opposite things happen. Models are really all over the place with this one. Better to flip a coin honestly.

definitely 50/50 chance we get nailed with bone-chilling cold or the brunt of the cold lines the rockies and trends east as usual.

[MWG]

Finally some blue sky! 37F

[SouthHillFrosty]

Not trying to be negative, but I think our potential for under 15 degrees in Seattle is close to zero. We don’t have any ensemble support. All we have is a control and operational run on the Euro. This is ludicrous. I want extreme and snow. I just don’t see it

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Have you ever subscribed to a newspaper?  Local to you or otherwise.

I had the Oregonian delivered daily for two years from 2012-14 though I never subscribed. I also used some left over airline miles to subscribe to the Wall Street Journal for a couple of years. Oh and the Sunday NYT. 

Edited December 13, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[WildrootParable]

Also, following the forum today has wreaked absolute havoc on my productivity.

And for that I thank you. 

Just please give me plenty of heads up before I have to sound the alarm in my neighborhood about impending winter doom. Sprinting isn't my forte and I need to stretch first. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Not trying to be negative, but I think our potential for under 15 degrees in Seattle is close to zero. We don’t have any ensemble support. All we have is a control and operational run on the Euro. This is ludicrous. I want extreme and snow. I just don’t see it

I'll be happy with 25 degree weather as long as there's snow.  

But everyone has their own preferences.

[Slushy Inch]

Minor improvements.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

I used to read the Bartlesville Examiner a lot when I lived in that town. It was a daily paper, and a bit of a throwback being an evening newspaper. 

[runninthruda206]

1 minute ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

I'll be happy with 25 degree weather as long as there's snow.  

But everyone has their own preferences.

Me and you both. Especially since I missed out a couple weeks ago

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In other news looks like a 38/30 day here. Not bad. While we fret about 7-10 days from now, the next few days should be progressively colder 

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Couldn't get in.  Thought I was banned, but I couldn't figure out what I did.  LOL.

Currently 34F and overcast. I thought maybe that the forum was shut down for some reason.

[Mid Valley Duck]

18z GEFS with a pretty large swing.

[Cold Snap]

Still haven’t gotten above 38 today. Looks like I might pull of a sub 40 high today.

[Phishy Wx]

more waffling.  ain't sweating yet.

everyone has their desired outcomes.  I just want it to get below -1.  that's the coldest I've seen in 5 winters here.

 

[LowerGarfield]

59 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I had snow at sea level in Morgan Hill (south of San Jose CA) during the Dec 1998 event. My grandparents also had snow in the Central Valley (Madera) with that one. 

As someone from Norcal, that is absolutely shocking. Wow!

[Kolk1604]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Not trying to be negative, but I think our potential for under 15 degrees in Seattle is close to zero. We don’t have any ensemble support. All we have is a control and operational run on the Euro. This is ludicrous. I want extreme and snow. I just don’t see it

We talked about this earlier. When the Op and EPS are this far apart, it's a sign the atmosphere is really unstable. Also you have to remember that the Op runs at a higher resolution than it's ensembles.

You have too look for them, but there are some very cold members. 

Do I think it will get that cold? No. But confidence is increasing on a very cold week next week and we're only 4 days out 

 

[WeatherGeek2022]

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Not trying to be negative, but I think our potential for under 15 degrees in Seattle is close to zero. We don’t have any ensemble support. All we have is a control and operational run on the Euro. This is ludicrous. I want extreme and snow. I just don’t see it

nah you're right. lows in the 20s and *maybe* highs in the mid thirties is probably best case scenario as sad as that is.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

18z GEFS with a pretty large swing.

I think its just catching up with the block being weaker and more energy moving westward.

The 18Z GEFS is actually worse than the 18Z GFS for early next week.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Christmas AR on this run. 

[Cold Snap]

Honestly what would make me really satisfied out of this event is at least 3 inches going into the cold and then a few days of highs in the 20s lows in the teens and then a nice overrunning event at the end that drops another 3-6 inches at least and then hopefully some fake cold until at least Christmas to keep that snow cover and have a white Christmas!

[Mid Valley Duck]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think its just catching up with the block being weaker and more energy moving westward.

The 18Z GEFS is actually worse than the 18Z GFS for early next week.  

12z GEFS was significantly worse than the 12z Op. The large swings run to run don’t inspire confidence 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

12z GEFS was significantly worse than the 12z Op. The large swings run to run don’t inspire confidence 

I wonder what the spaghetti chart looks like. I like that better than smoothed means, gives us a better glimpse into the range of possibilities the ensembles are showing.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just a matter of time before the EC caves. Of course the one time we want it to come to the correct solution in our favor, it's wrong.

A warm Christmas AR would be the darkest timeline.

[SnowPlz]

3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Honestly what would make me really satisfied out of this event is at least 3 inches going into the cold and then a few days of highs in the 20s lows in the teens and then a nice overrunning event at the end that drops another 3-6 inches at least and then hopefully some fake cold until at least Christmas to keep that snow cover and have a white Christmas!

This 1000% 

[MossMan]

Even though we have lost the TIM model, birds have massively increased their bird seed consumption in my bird feeder over the last few days…It’s coming. 

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Honestly what would make me really satisfied out of this event is at least 12 inches going into the cold and then a few days of highs in the 20s lows in the teens and then a nice overrunning event at the end that drops another 12 inches at least and then hopefully some fake cold until at least Christmas to keep that snow cover and have a white Christmas!

Fixed it for you. 

[Terreboner]

Jim will be here soon to lighten the mood.

[andrewr]

As long as we avoid split flow hell, I'm a happy camper. AR, 40 degree rain, 25 degree snow, or 15 degrees and dry are all fine by me.