PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Doinko]

33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just a reminder... the 12Z ECMWF showed almost everyone gets snow.   I don't think it's fair to just say nothing will happen farther south.   

Euro shows some impressively cold Gorge outflow in the low 20s and high teens. Most of the precip is sleet and ice though. The 00z was very snowy for the Willamette Valley too

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Jesse can alienate even the nicest among us.

Yep. Frankly I was shocked when there was such an uproar to have him unbanned when he was originally banned. 

Edited December 15, 2022 by MossMan

[lowlandsnow]

Only 19 more inches for 2022-2023 to become the snowiest winter since 1972 for Seattle

[WildrootParable]

6 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Jesse can alienate even the nicest among us.

Sorry, I'm slow on the uptake and I'm still creating my flow chart to figure out who is who.

(Kidding, but...)

Is Jesse Mr. Snowmizer, or...?

[joelgombiner]

3 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Only 19 more inches for 2022-2023 to become the snowiest winter since 1972 for Seattle

I don't see why not. KSEA has already set a daily record and a streak record this year... 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, WildrootParable said:

Sorry, I'm slow on the uptake and I'm still creating my flow chart to figure out who is who.

(Kidding, but...)

Is Jesse Mr. Snowmizer, or...?

Cascadiawx 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, WildrootParable said:

Sorry, I'm slow on the uptake and I'm still creating my flow chart to figure out who is who.

(Kidding, but...)

Is Jesse Mr. Snowmizer, or...?

Jesse turned into CascadiaWx (or something like that) when Jesse was banned a while back. He snuck back in under a different username. Snowmizer is a different person and is a long time member. 

[joelgombiner]

19th below-normal high in a row for KSEA yesterday. Today will be the 20th. 

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

Just now, joelgombiner said:

19th below-normal high in a row for KSEA yesterday. Today will be the 20th. 

I wonder what the record is.

[WildrootParable]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Cascadiawx 

 

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Jesse turned into CascadiaWx (or something like that) when Jesse was banned a while back. He snuck back in under a different username. Snowmizer is a different person and is a long time member. 

Thank you for the help! As someone mentioned awhile back in this thread, the lore for this forum is truly dizzying. But since I'm the one who wandered in here I try to just pick things up through osmosis and not ask too many questions unless absolutely necessary. 

[Requiem]

37 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

GFS and GEM look bad for Portland but very good for Seattle

I thought these were the new runs for a moment and was more than a little disappointed. Nice to see these are the already discussed 12z and 18z runs.

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

 

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

 

good to see they're already addressing it

[FroYoBro]

13 minutes ago, WildrootParable said:

 

Thank you for the help! As someone mentioned awhile back in this thread, the lore for this forum is truly dizzying. But since I'm the one who wandered in here I try to just pick things up through osmosis and not ask too many questions unless absolutely necessary. 

Hi. I’m George W. Bush. Nice to meet you. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Icon running. 

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, WildrootParable said:

 

Thank you for the help! As someone mentioned awhile back in this thread, the lore for this forum is truly dizzying. But since I'm the one who wandered in here I try to just pick things up through osmosis and not ask too many questions unless absolutely necessary. 

Some of us have been here 17 years. That’s 24,820 GFS runs of torment. Crazy.

[Slushy Inch]

0z NAm vs 18z GFS 

[Slushy Inch]

ICON improvements

[Mid Valley Duck]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Icon running. 

Looks better through hour 102. Bigger push south of arctic air

[Slushy Inch]

The difference between NAM and GFS is stark. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NAM has a bias for aggressive CAA. I wouldn’t read to much into it. 

[Slushy Inch]

GARBAGE BIN!

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Some of us have been here 17 years. That’s 24,820 GFS runs of torment. Crazy.

I think I just had my 16th anniversary. The late November 2006 screwjob in these parts inspired me to vent.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

NAM has a bias for aggressive CAA. I wouldn’t read to much into it. 

Does it really? Does that effect 500mb heights as well? Those look better as well

[TT-SEA]

ICON is very lost.

[IceKing]

22 minutes ago, WildrootParable said:

 

Thank you for the help! As someone mentioned awhile back in this thread, the lore for this forum is truly dizzying. But since I'm the one who wandered in here I try to just pick things up through osmosis and not ask too many questions unless absolutely necessary. 

I've lurked here for 2 years and only know that mossman gets all the snow and everyone hates some guy named Phil

[BLI snowman]

ICON actually shows snow and a freeze in Bellingham. That's when you know  sh*t's getting real.

Edited December 15, 2022 by BLI snowman

[Gradient Keeper]

Ready for potentially exciting 00z runs tonight?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Applesauce said:

I've lurked here for 2 years and only know that mossman gets all the snow and everyone hates some guy named Phil

We love Phil!   

[Requiem]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Ready for potentially exciting 00z runs tonight?

Ensemble improvement has me at least a little optimistic areas with sufficient Gorge outflow could get something.

[Nov1985]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Some of us have been here 17 years. That’s 24,820 GFS runs of torment. Crazy.

Wow. I lurked here for years. I just didn't have the emotional intelligence to survive this forum until after I turned 50. It just gets easier as more and more brain cells degenerate. 

[GHweatherChris]

44 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Jesse can alienate even the nicest among us.

Jesse didn't say or do anything wrong, at least to the extent someone felt they should stop posting.  There are way more members on this forum that get a free pass for their brash interactions with people, and they are way worse on the daily.

Edited December 15, 2022 by GHweatherChris

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Ready for potentially exciting 00z runs tonight?

They will be exciting for places much further north than where you and I live. But maybe hour 384 will throw us a bone. That’s why I ride. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Does it really? Does that effect 500mb heights as well? Those look better as well

Not sure on that, but it has a cold bias. 

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ICON is very lost.

I was going to say this. It never seemed as ridic as the GFS this past week but now that the first part of the upcoming pattern has sort of come into agreement among the others it has really started pooping the bed. Or its amazing and all the others are dog and we're wasting our time here

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Does it really? Does that effect 500mb heights as well? Those look better as well

Any CAA scenario with the NAM is often pretty poorly handled after 48 hours or so, it tends to both rush the timing and exaggerate the intensity.

I find it's useful for cyclogenesis and precipitation inside of that window, and a bit less pathetic with temps, but the "long range" of the NAM is very much akin to the long range of other models.

Edited December 15, 2022 by BLI snowman

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Applesauce said:

I've lurked here for 2 years and only know that mossman gets all the snow and everyone hates some guy named Phil

Everyone hates Kevin Martin. 

[HuskyMaestro]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Some of us have been here 17 years. That’s 24,820 GFS runs of torment. Crazy.

Honestly wish I had discovered this forum a decade ago but also I wouldn’t wish anyone to deal with my annoying and unstable 15 year old self at the time so it may have been a blessing to everyone  

But because of that, I lurked on hurricane/typhoon forums and sites for the longest time and got a good grasp on tropical weather rather than PNW weather. 

[MWG]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Ready for potentially exciting 00z runs tonight?

Only if it brings snow for all of us! lol

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Some of us have been here 17 years. That’s 24,820 GFS runs of torment. Crazy.

Was the MRF still in use when we all started this adventure?