Fircrest Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: All you had to do was pick out his key words, southern movement, cold air, timeframe, and he was D**n good at it. He would look so far upstream on live satellite loops and put together a decent forecast of the cold air, quite impressive sometimes. If I remember correctly, he would talk a lot about "main and broader cold" and the movement of it. Very cryptic at times but fascinating. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Mid-50s at 4am on Christmas morning. 1 1 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: That’s the biggest bummer to me. Looks like our period of chilly weather is over by the middle of next week. Then It’s going to be a waiting game to see when (if) it comes back. Just in time for juneary. Yeah... probably heading to Mt Hood on Saturday to get in my winter fix. Probably gonna need it with Sunriver's weather outlook looking increasingly grim for wanting a winter fix out there. Although if things stay clear and don't go too zonal I guess we could manage some fake cold at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Welp, the GFS sucked, GEM was mid, Icon sucked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: Mid-50s at 4am on Christmas morning. Talk about a lump of coal in our stockings! 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mid Valley Duck Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Comes down to the euro. If it’s not good, then it’s getting late early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: The problem is pretty much every model is trending in the direction of the GFS… This model? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 We will see if the EURO sticks to its guns. Hopefully! But some part of me fully expects it to cave tonight. 2 2 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Talk about a lump of coal in our stockings! sooner it blows up sooner we get to january. i'm all for it! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: sooner it blows up sooner we get to january. i'm all for it! If it works like that then I’ll take it. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, Requiem said: So someone more knowledgeable than me please explain-- I know the GFS is garbage, but why are short term improvements begetting longer term garbage? I think its here at Day 6 into Day 7, the Polar lobe stretches east and bridges with eastern trough. the pseudo-ridge in the south central states is beaten down and our lobe slides off southeast allowing us to pop a massive ridge on the west coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildrootParable Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Fircrest said: If I remember correctly, he would talk a lot about "main and broader cold" and the movement of it. Very cryptic at times but fascinating. I'm delighted by the idea that Jedi-esque experts like Richard lurk in forums, speaking in riddles, yet somehow make perfect sense. Who knows how many more like him are out there, anonymous beings of great arcane wisdom in their chosen field? Love it. There's a movie in there somewhere. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Great Seattle AFD tonight and one of the old timers at the nws is retired after tonight. 8 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Ouch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall, Ice(freezing rain) totals I’m in the 1st shade of Pepto!! Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: Ouch.... Now what? We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: Ouch.... A new development to compound on our continued pain? "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Now what? Euro Telekinesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Not good 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 9 hours ago, JSnowlin said: Are you really that dense Jesse? Apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Now what? Acid reflux My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, JSnowlin said: Apparently. Wow, hold a grudge much.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mid Valley Duck Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Randy shared this on Facebook. But thought it’d be good to put here too. It’s a complicated pattern 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Survivor season finale is on. there someone named Jesse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 You have to like how the first act is trending colder and colder in the home stretch. Very good sign. 6 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said: Survivor season finale is on. there someone named Jesse No spoilers please. I watch on Thursdays on Paramount. Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 19 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Welp, the GFS sucked, GEM was mid, Icon sucked You didn't see all of the cold and snow early next week? 1 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Kind of slow considering the huge improvement on the GFS for the early part of next week. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Wow, we really lost the GFS ensemble support. Didn’t expect to see such a dramatic swing in just one run. This sucks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: You didn't see all of the cold and snow early next week? Yea but that is quickly turning into the whole event. Ik it’s the GFS but it lost all major ensemble support tonight. I’m playing my faith in the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 GFS at it again? Did you have to reset the forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Yea but that is quickly turning into the whole event. Ik it’s the GFS but it lost all major ensemble support tonight. I’m playing my faith in the Euro You don't think it's likely that will change? 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Alright, that’s it for me. Can’t trust the GEM or GFS. I’ll be back for the Euro. Just need a quick break! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Being real, just a few days of cold and more snow would be fantastic considering what we've already had and most of the winter still being ahead of us. I think the second act could still work out also. The first act has been revived from the ash heap on the last couple of runs. 7 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: You don't think it's likely that will change? I think it’s obviously going to change. I’m just shocked that snow totals are 50% less on the 00z then the 18z. That surprised me greatly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 I think we lost Frosty! Down to 29! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: I think it’s obviously going to change. I’m just shocked that snow totals are 50% less on the 00z then the 18z. That surprised me greatly. The pleasant surprise is how much better the early stuff has gotten. Might be good to focus on that for now. 4 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, MossMan said: I think we lost Frosty! Down to 29! 30 here. A nice cold night! 1 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Looking at the 500mb level for the second act it's pretty obvious to see how easily it could trend better again. 9 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 48 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Talk about a lump of coal in our stockings! Break out the Hawaiian shirts and mai tais Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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