PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[rsktkr]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

The January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano reached the mesosphere.

[Snownerd3000]

5 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

The January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano reached the mesosphere.

Is this what is bringing a Day After Tomorrowe like scenario which will bring on a new mini ice age?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

22 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It's scary how many dumb dumbs we have out there like this.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

EPS hour 240

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

How much snow have you received out your way so far this season?

About 22 inches.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

About 22 inches.

3 miles away close to 30.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

About 22 inches.

That's snowier than any winter I've experienced!

[Poulsbo Snowman]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEFS shows sprawling high pressure across all of Canada and Alaska late next week... just a crazy pattern.

Sighnificant high latitude blocking.  Should eventually send the goods down.

[Meatyorologist]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

No... same tape measure in the same spots.   

It's about the motion of the ocean, man

[SouthHillFrosty]

Ensembles Doubling down 

[MossMan]

I give it a 50% chance this year! 

Edited December 7, 2022 by MossMan

[SouthHillFrosty]

@MR.SNOWMIZER

[RentonHill]

EPS definitely picking up a hint of what the GFS was showing. 850s drop down around 240 and stay low

[MossMan]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

@MR.SNOWMIZER

Can you post Paine Field as well? 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

That's a very strong signal for hours 300

 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

This was the 2005 pattern at its most favorable, right before it committed suicide.

Yeah, no -NAO ridgybridgy that December.

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Ensembles Doubling down 

I noticed that

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

That's a very strong signal for hours 300

 

Amazing agreement with GEFS! Keep it coming!

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Can you post Paine Field as well? 

 

[TT-SEA]

Its coming!   When you see the ensembles all trending in the same cold direction you know its coming.   

[MossMan]

I went jetsking on Christmas Day 2005! 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Its coming!   When you see the ensembles all trending in the same cold direction you know its coming.   

The confidence for cold mid-December is high as it could be!

[TT-SEA]

We have reached the earliest sunset of the year.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its coming!   When you see the ensembles all trending in the same cold direction you know its coming.   

What are the odds of a back to back White Christmas…That would be absolutely epic!! 

[Front Ranger]

57 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Bowling balls in a sea of red... apparently zonal flow does not exist any more.  

The Euro is ripe for extrapolation at the end. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I really need the regime to switch back to the normal 43 degree rain.  I am spending way too much time here reading.  Way too much time.  A couple days ago, when we were actively tracking the event, I forgot to eat dinner.   

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

The Euro is ripe for extrapolation at the end. 

Ensemble is really all that matters at that range but yes.

[Front Ranger]

15 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

About 22 inches.

You got me beat by about 10"!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

What are the odds of a back to back White Christmas…That would be absolutely epic!! 

Seems like the odds are getting better by the day.

[Cold Snap]

Currently 42 with 0.04” on the day so far. While it kinda sucks most people probably won’t go into this cold and dry period with snow, it is looking like the time period before Christmas is starting to get interesting. I’d gladly take bare ground with this dry cold snap coming up in exchange for a white Christmas!

[Front Ranger]

18 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's scary how many dumb dumbs we have out there like this.

He went viral. Joke's on you.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

You got me beat by about 10"!

Got me beat by 20 1/2 inches.  But across town by the Walmart, they still have 3 inches or so on the ground.  At Bangor, they have more than 6 inches.  I live about 15 minutes from Bangor.  Microclimates are insane around here.  Sucks to sit on the snowline for 3 days. 

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

He went viral. Joke's on you.

Nothing like celebrating your clout in a back brace and a broken Coccyx

[DeepFriedEgg]

Potential off the charts right now but I've seen this before...

[Kayla]

12z EPS is beginning to look a lot like Feb/Mar 2019. Below normal heights stay locked in with persistent AK blocking throughout.

[ShawniganLake]

I’ve had snow falling and/or on the ground on 6 of the last 10 Christmas days. Seems like we’ve had a lot of winter weather focussed around the holiday’s lately. 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Potential off the charts right now but I've seen this before...

The ensembles aren't typically in such good agreement.

[Deweydog]

17 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, no -NAO ridgybridgy that December.

A bubbly oasis in a sea of grape and blueberry juice.

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

The ensembles aren't typically in such good agreement.

Even the deterministic at day 10 had very similar looks to their setups.

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’ve had snow falling and/or on the ground on 6 of the last 10 Christmas days. Seems like we’ve had a lot of winter weather focussed around the holiday’s lately. 

Yeah it’s been a great stretch! 

[Meatyorologist]

I'm starting to think the "new members" Olive and Egg aren't who they say they are...

[Snownerd3000]

, nobody talking about the canucks but even it has a similar look to the GFS at day 10.  A little more east but very similar.

[Kolk1604]

12 minutes ago, Kayla said:

12z EPS is beginning to look a lot like Feb/Mar 2019. Below normal heights stay locked in with persistent AK blocking throughout.

I can only imagine the possibilities of getting this pattern now instead at the end of winter 

[Gummy]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Seems like the odds are getting better by the day.

Indeed. Seattle had the snow storm the day after Christmas last year and a very solid snow event Christmas Eve of 2017 I believe it was.

We are actually due for something 'big' on Christmas day.

"The most that’s ever fallen in Seattle on Christmas Day was 1.18 inches, in 1909, he said. That was measured at the Federal Building downtown. An inch fell on Christmas in 1965, according to the NWS."

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Gummy said:

Indeed. Seattle had the snow storm the day after Christmas last year and a very solid snow event Christmas Eve of 2017 I believe it was.

We are actually due for something solid on Christmas day.

"The most that’s ever fallen in Seattle on Christmas Day was 1.18 inches, in 1909, he said. That was measured at the Federal Building downtown. An inch fell on Christmas in 1965, according to the NWS."

I could go for 6-12 inches, most of it in the morning. I had snow Christmas morning 2008 and 2017.

[SouthHillFrosty]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm starting to think the "new members" Olive and Egg aren't who they say they are...

somebody got their IP address traced

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I could go for 6-12 inches, most of it in the morning. I had snow Christmas morning 2008 and 2017.

We got buried from a CZ that setup in 08. It was fun but waking up to a 40 degree house due to a power outage from the weight of the snow I could do without, especially since now, I don't have a generator to deal with it lol.

[OysterPrintout]

13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm starting to think the "new members" Olive and Egg aren't who they say they are...

Bro what 

[TT-SEA]

Meanwhile... up to 45 at SEA and in North Bend.   Heat wave today!    Normal high is still 48.