PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Cloud]

Christmas is wet but temps stays in the mid-30s for Seattle. So a slow melt rather than a fast one.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GEM also has some very cold outflow

 

That’s pretty wild. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Doinko said:

GFS, GEM and Euro have some amazing CAA.

Couldn’t really ask for a better signal right now. Wednesday afternoon/evening would be pretty fun around here if it played out that way.

We’ve definitely been burned from way weaker than advertised CAA many times though. Cautiously optimistic!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

972mb low approaching Vancouver island on the gfs for Boxing Day. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Lol Jaya called the 18z gfs the drunk uncle!!!

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

972mb low approaching Vancouver island on the gfs for Boxing Day. 

I think 12/8/95 was mentioned earlier as an analog to this event. And then the big windstorm after of course

[ShawniganLake]

Down to 20 at Abbotsford. 15 at Hope

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Couldn’t really ask for a better signal right now. Wednesday afternoon/evening would be pretty fun around here if it played out that way.

We’ve definitely been burned from way weaker than advertised CAA many times though. Cautiously optimistic!

I wonder if we'll be able to manage a sub 25 high. I doubt it because we could probably see a midnight high on Thursday if the cold air arrives slowly.

[Skier B]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Christmas is wet but temps stays in the mid-30s for Seattle. So a slow melt rather than a fast one.

Yep, 6" of snow with a glazing of ice is tough to melt for 35F rain.

[Front Ranger]

GFS shows a sub-zero day here on Thursday. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

The Euro did remarkably well with the onset here once it got within 24 hours. It said the action would begin around 7:00 am IMBY. It actually commenced around 6:00 am.

[Cloud]

We then flip to a raging Pacific 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

I wonder if we'll be able to manage a sub 25 high. I doubt it because we could probably see a midnight high on Thursday if the cold air arrives slowly.

Definitely not outside the realm of possibility if the gorge gets cranking as early as these runs are showing. It’s a burly airmass, even though we are just getting a drive by.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What the… 

[MossMan]

My current snow depth! 
Light snow shower in progress.

33.4 degrees 

[Doinko]

Just now, Cloud said:

We then flip to a raging Pacific 

Doesn't look torchy either.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

We then flip to a raging Pacific 

Looks like a nice mountain snow pattern. 

[Prairiedog]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Snow cover and clearing don’t really play a role here. This isn’t radiational cooling. It’s low level cold air advection.

That said I also agree the amount of CAA being shown Wednesday into Thursday seems too good to be true. But it’s worth mentioning that the GFS was pretty slow to bite on the low level cold air with this thing, and now it’s totally onboard. Maybe when they did the upgrade they made the GFS more conservative with CAA since it used to be extremely aggressive. In which case having it strongly in that camp now could be a good sign.

I wasn't clear in my thinking out loud.  I was considering the Columbia Basin being cold enough to drive temps down that low locally.  Being that's our supply of cold air, so in order for PDX to have temps in the teens, it's going to need to be really cold in The Dalles, etc. and maybe it will.   I felt the GFS would hold ground earlier with a milder solution but it didn't.  I was wrong on that.  Low level cold will be there for PDX.  I'm just not convinced yet it will be that cold.  .  .  .yet.  CAA will be in play.  Just a question of how cold will it get.  Teens seemed a bit too aggressive. 

[Cloud]

This is quite a frame. 2 very strong ALs and a 970 right by us. 

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Darn good chance Seattle has a white Christmas. 

Totally agree.

[jakerepp]

10 degrees this morning in Boise. 

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Definitely not outside the realm of possibility if the gorge gets cranking as early as these runs are showing. It’s a burly airmass, even though we are just getting a drive by.

Doesn't look great for snow at this point but this could end up being a fantastic event for cold

[MossMan]

Cold winter morning! Love it! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like a nice mountain snow pattern. 

It is… 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Totally agree.

Snow depth takes quite a hit by Sunday eve though from near 6” to 1” for Seattle. But it would still be a white Christmas with snow still on the ground. 

[MossMan]

24 in Sumas, Lynden down to 25. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Doesn't look great for snow at this point but this could end up being a fantastic event for cold

Definitely, and the deeper the models trend with the cold here the better chance we start with snow at the offset of whatever sort of transition event transpires later this week.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Snow depth takes quite a hit by Sunday eve though from near 6” to 1” for Seattle. But it would still be a white Christmas with snow still on the ground. 

The warm up is being delayed on every run... that is a week away.    Colder longer is the best bet right now.

[MikeInEverett]

Light rain/snow mix here from a passing shower. Snowflakes were clearly visible! 37

[TT-SEA]

Wow... France just went from 2-0 down to 2-2 in a about a minute.  

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The warm up is being delayed on every run... that is a week away.    Colder longer is the best bet right now.

Mentioned that and obviously we’ve been commenting on this specific run. 

[WildrootParable]

I just accidentally wandered into the Mountain West forum and it was such an uncanny experience...like walking into a familiar room and finding it full of complete strangers. 

Anyway. Around 34 degrees at the moment but feels even colder than that. The birds cleaned out the feeder in one day; still feels like they know something is up. 

 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... France just went from 2-0 down to 2-2 in a about a minute.  

Never count out the defending champs. 

[Hawksfan2008]

We finally got our pepto GFS back! Oh how I’ve missed you old friend. 

[Hawksfan2008]

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Wow, Williams Lake in southern BC is already down to -10. And should stay below 0 for at least the next 96 hours.

I see Environment Canada has issued an extreme cold warning for the region. Seems pretty rare.

[T-Town]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... France just went from 2-0 down to 2-2 in a about a minute.  

Unreal. They did nothing for 80 minutes. 

[MikeInEverett]

Might issue a weenie watch for myself if there’s any kind of snow shadow up here on Tuesday 

[The Cats Meow]

3 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

We finally got our pepto GFS back! Oh how I’ve missed you old friend. 

Those are incredible colors.  Sign me up for snowfall like that.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

 

 

And that is not a 384 hour map... that is the next 6 days.