PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Jbolin]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I don't see enough southerlies north of Tacoma to remove the cold. Iooks like the nam 3km keeps the southerlies south of tacoma the entire event. Looking like a large event for most places and i totally expect to get nuked out here at home.

You tell him Mossman, that nerd @Meatyorologist dudn't kno shizz 

[SnarkyGoblin]

Latest HRRR showing light snow from central sound and heavier in whatcom county starting this evening.  I assume this is before we get warm nosed tomorrow morning?

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Optimistic for the current pattern.

[Skagit Weather]

Here's the WRF's take for what's it's worth (probably not much).

[LowerGarfield]

12 minutes ago, Katzen said:

The deck check this morning

Between Issaquah and Renton Highlands

Looks like mine.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Looks like a -10°C (14 °F) is a pretty sure bet this season, but will it get into the single digits Fahrenheit like last year? Time will tell. I am assuming this event will give the coldest temperatures of the season.

Gonna be some flooding if those AR’s hit but a little too early to really worry about that now.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Optimistic for the current pattern.

Weather.com is a bit cold too

 

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

21F and light flurries currently. It could be quite a snowstorm up this way, but models are starting to show a transition to rain even up here for at least part of it so I'm cautiously optimistic.

Don’t say that!! We will stay all snow! 

[The Blob]

13 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks a bit colder than Mark's from last night.

I feel like Jeff could become the next Mark.

[Cascadia_Wx]

GFS drops a 1066mb high into western Montana Thursday morning. Pretty wild.

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Weather.com is a bit cold too

 

I just meant the graphic about snow/ice forecasting. 

[WeatherGeek2022]

So much cold to tap into for huge potential yet we're still in bust territory it seems as of this morning? I guess just PNW things strike again.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

19 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm leaning with a HRRR type solution right now. Temporary switchover to rain early in the morning, back to wet snow around noon. May not accumulate below 500' when it switches back unless precip rates are high.

Yeah, it was over before it began.

[Skagit Weather]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Looks like a -10°C (14 °F) is a pretty sure bet this season, but will it get into the single digits Fahrenheit like last year? Time will tell. I am assuming this event will give the coldest temperatures of the season.

Gonna be some flooding if those AR’s hit but a little too early to really worry about that now.

I think there's definitely a possibility of single digits here, especially if we can pick up some snow beforehand. I think matching last year's 6.6F is unlikely but possible based on the modeling.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 in ferdale with a 22mph wind. 

 

 

[umadbro]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

So much cold to tap into for huge potential yet we're still in bust territory it seems as of this morning? I guess just PNW things strike again.

What’s busting?

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Forum Admin said:

Yeah, it was over before it began.

Any luck with the laptop login issue?

[Hawksfan2008]

NBM 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Forum Admin said:

Yeah, it was over before it began.

I hope you've kept your cyanide capsules in a memorable place for when then the mixing begins around 2am...

[SouthHillFrosty]

Flurries currently 

[Doinko]

Just now, umadbro said:

What’s busting?

Puget sounders *may* not get yet another dumping of snow.

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, umadbro said:

What’s busting?

Just seeing a lot of talk about rain being in the picture

[lowlandsnow]

ECMWF looks too warm for high temps today

[SouthHillFrosty]

OH SHIT. WINTER STORM WATCH LFG

[umadbro]

Just now, Doinko said:

Puget sounders *may* not get yet another dumping of snow.

They’ll be getting plenty of snow

[Chewbacca Defense]

WSW just issued starting at 7pm for up here, 2-6" possible

[Kayla]

Looks like the 06z EPS shows -20/-41 on Thursday at BZN. A day like that would put it up there with the all-time greats of 1983/1978/1990. One thing this airmass has that those didn't is a much deeper snowpack statewide. Snowpack back then was less than half of what we currently have here.

Obviously the duration doesn't look anything like 1983 but just the fact that this airmass could rival some of 1983 temps is truly incredible in our current climate.

[umadbro]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

Just seeing a lot of talk about rain being in the picture

If you live south of about Tacoma to Olympia. But Friday we’ll all see rain in freezing form.

[Meatyorologist]

RGEM first warms Seattle's ambient temperature tomorrow night, then our hearts on the back end of the storm with a rapid changeover to heavy snow and northerlies. Actually dumps the most snow after the switchback; more than half a foot.

[Kayla]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

GFS drops a 1066mb high into western Montana Thursday morning. Pretty wild.

Record shattering.

[Gummy]

Just now, Doinko said:

Puget sounders *may* not get yet another dumping of snow.

Populated areas Seattle south haven't had a dumping of snow this season yet. Lynnwood north? They will get dumped on again.

[Terreboner]

Regardless of what transpires this week, it is looking more and more likely that we go into a snowpack "saving" period.  I was worrying more about the impending warmup destroying our beautiful surplus in the mountains.

Also looks like a lot of beneficial moisture is going to make it over to central and SE Oregon where we still sit in extreme drought territory.  If we obliterate that classification by the end of the winter I will be happy.

[Cold Snap]

Woke up to it snowing lightly. Currently 27. Looks like snow showers continued off and on through the night. Probably have about an inch of accumulation now.

[SnowPlz]

One model has a 20% chance of slightly warmer air reaching Seattle for a few hours. WINTER IS CANCELLED 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Looks like the 06z EPS shows -20/-41 on Thursday at BZN. A day like that would put it up there with the all-time greats of 1983/1978/1990. One that this airmass has that those didn't is a much deeper snowpack statewide. Snowpack back then were less than half of what we currently have here.

Obviously the duration doesn't look anything like 1983 but just the fact that this airmass could rival some of 1983 temps is truly incredible in our current climate.

Montana has almost seemed exempt from AGW. Continental variability is extreme enough to mute its effects on a day-to-day perspective.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Gummy said:

Populated areas Seattle south haven't had a dumping of snow this season yet. Lynnwood north? They will get dumped on again.

Didn't the South Sound do the best in early December?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Gonna need a miracle in Tacoma. I still believe doe

[Terreboner]

This morning's Seattle AFD should be a good read, as well as PDX's.  Just waiting... In typical Pendleton fashion, it was mostly a copy/paste.

[jakerepp]

285 guests reading right now? It was 313 just a couple minutes ago, but I guess people saw 'winter cancel' and left.

[yellowstone]

2 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

WSW just issued starting at 7pm for up here, 2-6" possible

Welp, that’s the official death knell. Was a nice idea. Best guess as to what happens now - event starts as rain up to the Canadian border. WSW dropped. Arctic front migrates through and dumps a foot of snow down to Oympia. WSW restarted 15 minutes before the last flake falls.