PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Skagit Weather]

2 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

So many d@mn conflicting reports.

Bellingham is the 16F just south of the border.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Lower actual temp than modeled, would prob mean slower warm up.  Start at 25 and warm to 40 will take longer than say 32 to 40.  

I am not going to try and guess... the storm will be about over in 24 hours from now so we will know the final answer very soon!  

[snowbustcity]

I'll admit I don't ever 100% know what everyone is talking about in this forum, but I do appreciate your services. Thanks for keeping people like me informed. 

[BLI snowman]

33 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yeah, the euro worries me a bit because it seems to show pretty anemic precip at onset and it really struggles to get much evaporative cooling aloft where we really need it. Seems like precip intensity, especially at onset is very much up in the air at this point.

Gonna be a lot of dry air and downsloping potential in the metro area. I foresee a lot of virga and 6+ hours to saturate the airmass, with what already may be a pretty paltry push of precip. 

Edited December 19, 2022 by BLI snowman

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Nah, Tim has a handle on the situation.  Noone else does.

I have literally said I have no idea what will happen several times.   Relax dude... we are just discussing the situation and offering theories.   Could go either way. 

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I am not going to try and guess... the storm will be about over in 24 hours from now so we will know the final answer very soon!  

But the Euro is spot on in the short term, you said it yourself. 

[joelgombiner]

5 minutes ago, snowbustcity said:

I'll admit I don't ever 100% know what everyone is talking about in this forum, but I do appreciate your services. Thanks for keeping people like me informed. 

 

10 minutes ago, runninthruda206 said:

 

I bet he's watching to see if HQM-SEA stays negative and the strength of the YWL-BLI gradient... which increased back to 13 mb overnight. 

These are the air pressure gradients which dictate the rate of cold air flow into the Puget Sound from the north, and/or the rate of warmer ocean air flowing in from the west. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

But the Euro is spot on in the short term, you said it yourself. 

I said it can be wrong but its the best model available in the short term.   This is true.   And will be regardless of what happens tomorrow.   Tomorrow comes down to such fine details that no model can get that precise.   

You are trying to start something for no reason.   

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Bellingham is the 16F just south of the border.

I'm seeing 32 at Forks currently.

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I said it can be wrong but its the best model available in the short term.   This is true.   And will be regardless of what happens tomorrow.   Tomorrow comes down to such fine details that no model can get that precise.   

You are trying to start something for no reason.   

Your the one that's getting all riled up.  I was just discussing the weather.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’d like to get Phil’s thoughts on if January had a chance? 

[Snownerd3000]

18 minutes ago, The Blob said:

You can see the line

Russ can't see the line

[LowerGarfield]

It seems so strange that NWS SPokane is thinking 4-6inches for me and has not issued a WWA or Winter Storm watch for my location when they have issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Palouse to my north whereas PDT has issued has issued one for the zone to my west (which has similar terrain / weather to mine except in a different CWA).

[Jbolin]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have literally said I have no idea what will happen several times.   Relax dude... we are just discussing the situation and offering theories.   Could go either way. 

Can't believe I'm saying this but, I agree with Tim here. 

[Skagit Weather]

I'm surprised this hasn't been posted yet. If SEA could actually drop to 12F that would be the coldest temperature since December 29, 1990! Anything below 14F would do it. The 7F from February 1989 is probably off the table though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS has been pretty insistent that January is going to be a turd, but it has been playing catch up all year. 

[runninthruda206]

Just now, Skagit Weather said:

I'm surprised this hasn't been posted yet. If SEA could actually drop to 12F that would be the coldest temperature since December 29, 1990! Anything below 14F would do it. The 7F from February 1989 is probably off the table though.

Actually insane how cold it’s supposed to get! Feel like everyone is focused on tmrw instead, rightfully so though…

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Your the one that's getting all riled up.  I was just discussing the weather.

I have not been riled up about anything.   

You are just bored if you aren't poking at me.       

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I have not been riled up about anything.   

You are just bored if you aren't poking at me.       

You need to stop.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Quick little update for the Federal Way Area:

There is still snow on trees with temps at 32degrees east of I-5. West of I-5 and closer to the water, there is minimal snow with temps ranging 32-35

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

You need to stop.

LOL.

You said things I didn't say.   I didn't say the ECMWF was perfect and I never said I had figured it out.   Quite the opposite... many times.     So take your own advice and please stop.   

[Jbolin]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

You need to stop.

Both of you, please.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

I'm surprised this hasn't been posted yet. If SEA could actually drop to 12F that would be the coldest temperature since December 29, 1990! Anything below 14F would do it. The 7F from February 1989 is probably off the table though.

Pretty wild. For most places down here this will not compare to January 2017, December 2013, December 2009, and south of PDX temps got down to upper single digits and low teens in December 2008, also December 1998, Jan/Feb 1996, and in the valley January 1993 had widespread lows colder than what we will see this week. For PDX if they really achieved what the NAM shows then okay, I think that would be the coldest since 1990, but overall I don’t see temps PDX to SLE going below the 15-20 range, though I will say teens at PDX are pretty notable. 
 

Eugene on the other hand probably won’t get colder than they saw in November. One of these days we ll get a nice back door blast with some legs. 

[Cloud]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I'm surprised this hasn't been posted yet. If SEA could actually drop to 12F that would be the coldest temperature since December 29, 1990! Anything below 14F would do it. The 7F from February 1989 is probably off the table though.

Comparable to last December up this way, but a lot more widespread with the cold. Won’t feel comparable in Seattle!

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

While we wait for the storm, flakes are still falling here, 32/29 dp.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up here there is an outside chance we see our coldest temp since December 2013. Our coldest temp since then was 12 in January 2017. Seems like most of the models have us in the 10-15 range when the cold air advects in Thursday morning. We warm up faster than valley locations will, but that’s our opportunity to put up some impressive cold stats. Will be interesting to see. We don’t have much precedent for sudden temp drops with a push of arctic air like the models are showing. 

[MikeInEverett]

Still holding steady at 29 here. Been switching between flurries and light snow.

[Skagit Weather]

Top 10 coldest days this century (since 2000) at SEA for context:

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Up here there is an outside chance we see our coldest temp since December 2013. Our coldest temp since then was 12 in January 2017. Seems like most of the models have us in the 10-15 range when the cold air advects in Thursday morning. We warm up faster than valley locations will, but that’s our opportunity to put up some impressive cold stats. Will be interesting to see. We don’t have much precedent for sudden temp drops with a push of arctic air like the models are showing. 

When Matt says he can't remember any situation like this then you know its rare.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Up here there is an outside chance we see our coldest temp since December 2013. Our coldest temp since then was 12 in January 2017. Seems like most of the models have us in the 10-15 range when the cold air advects in Thursday morning. We warm up faster than valley locations will, but that’s our opportunity to put up some impressive cold stats. Will be interesting to see. We don’t have much precedent for sudden temp drops with a push of arctic air like the models are showing. 

I wonder if PDX will break their streak with no lows below 20 since 2017. Doesn't seem like an ideal setup for that but I think there's a good chance they'll get a sub-30 high at least.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

When Matt says he can't remember any situation like this then you know its rare.

January 20, 1954 seems like the best analog down here. Bit before most of our time. 

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Chris is bored... as he said several times when trying to downplay this event.    A bored Chris just likes to entertain himself on here.   

Hey, don't drag me into this spitball... I'm just here for the entertainment while I wait for this storm to barrel through.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cloud said:

Hey, don't drag me into this spitball... I'm just here for the entertainment while I wait for this storm to barrel through.

I am here for the same thing!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I wonder if PDX will break their streak with no lows below 20 since 2017. Doesn't seem like an ideal setup for that but I think there's a good chance they'll get a sub-30 high at least.

Yeah I can’t help but think this is being overdone, but that’s partly because I’m always a skeptic. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

January 20, 1954 seems like the best analog down here. Bit before most of our time. 

Good to know... will have to look that one up.

[GHweatherChris]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Chris is bored... as he said several times when trying to downplay this event.    A bored Chris just likes to entertain himself on here.   

Good lord, just stop.  I was so over it and yet you still keep going on about it.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Hey, don't drag me into this spitball... I'm just here for the entertainment while I wait for this storm to barrel through.

 

5 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Top 10 coldest days this century (since 2000) at SEA for context:

Interesting how many different events have given SEA those temps. Not as much variety at PDX

 

[Doinko]

Just now, Doinko said:

 

Interesting how many different events have given SEA those temps. Not as much variety at PDX

 

Didn't mean to quote the first one and can't seem to remove it for some reason

[awright-31]

Holding out hope for a miracle in Thurston County. A deviation of the low track could mean lots of snow. Could also mean lots of 35 degree rain. Temp 33 at the Rock Candy Trailhead (500 ft, one of the snowier spots around here) and 36 at OLM.