PNW December 2022 - Part II

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Cold air advecting in as modeled or faster than modeled??!  

This airmass is a beast. Maybe once in a lifetime for places east of the rockies.

[Terreboner]

Rodney Hilliard.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Probably just the GFS doing GFS things, but it takes a major storm into California next weekend and drops a cool trough into the PNW. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Cold air advecting in as modeled or faster than modeled??!  

Seems on track at least. This evening will be the big test as the deeper gradient gets established. We just in the last five minutes picked up the breeze here which is a definite indicator it’s taking over for the current gap wind.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Cloud said:

The icing event made it up to the Sound... it was more of a problem in Thurston county. Then we had the overrunning event that eventually turned to rain. 

I remember there was much more snow in puget sound than was forecasted. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

3 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Colder down there than here. Send that clearing up this way later.  Still cloudy 20F

We get more direct access in these situations but you'll probably end up colder overnight if there's good radiation cooling. Looks like we'll end up with a midnight high of 22.8F here, the highest it got during daylight hours was 19.8F and it's since cooled back down a bit. The outflow is roaring now, getting some snow dunes on the rocky hills. This is pretty top tier stuff for Victoria.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

39 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

Well that is just very anticlimactic for the ice scenario still being modeled... No sharing for us southerners for snow from the north sound.

Well, you’re not sharing very much of your ice with us, so fair’s fair.

[MikeInEverett]

Really interested to see how low we can go tonight. Hope clouds don’t take away some of the potential. Lowest I got last year was 14F so we’ll see how close we get.

[MikeInEverett]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I remember there was much more snow in puget sound than was forecasted. 

We stayed as snow much longer than anticipated in 2012. Probably for almost a whole 12-24 hrs longer than initially forecasted.

[Seattle]

5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The icing event made it up to the Sound... it was more of a problem in Thurston county. Then we had the overrunning event that eventually turned to rain. 

So there's really no precedent in the last 30 years of major icing north of SEA (minus foothill near passes)?

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

2 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

We stayed as snow much longer than anticipated in 2012. Probably for almost a whole 12-24 hrs longer than initially forecasted.

Hopefully that happens again. Would love to have a proper snowstorm, even if it is in transition.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS says the jet extension is very short lived...

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Seattle said:

So there's really no precedent in the last 30 years of major icing north of SEA (minus foothill near passes)?

Plenty of precedent, in the Fraser Valley.

[Perturbed Member]

27 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Good sign/catch!!

Definitely feels like the Euro has been playing some catch-up throughout with this recently and has underestimated the breadth of the overall airmass.

Every little ounce of cold depth helps a little with the transition tomorrow, even if the WAA timing is more or less being handled accurately.

Yeah this 12z Euro run actually had a half inch or so of snow for PDX tomorrow even with its warmer than reality 850s. If it really is downplaying the cold air depth a bit too much, maybe the 12z UKMET prediction has a small chance.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS says the jet extension is very short lived...

The fork should be put back in the bottom of the drawer.

[BLI snowman]

21 minutes ago, Seattle said:

Where was the icing in 1996? I know significant down in the Portland area, but up in the Sound? Was it limited to the S. Sound?

Yeah, December 26, 1996 was the really bad one for the Sound up to about SEA or so. That storm is actually reflected in OLM's records for that month, as it knocked their power out and led to a total data loss for the 26th and 27th.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Winter perfection today...

It's hard to beat clear powdery snow, cool crisp air and deep blue skies. Also, pretty rare for Victoria to do better than you and MossMan in the snow department, it really was a latitude centric event.

[Doinko]

PDX down to 35

[Timmy Supercell]

So uh, it's definitely winter in Wyoming now.

[TeacherLori]

12 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I remember there was much more snow in puget sound than was forecasted. 

My notes for Dec 1996, in the Shoreline/Edmonds area were that it snowed all day on the 26th and we got about 6". On the 27th, we woke to a foot of snow, and then on the 29th we got another 8" of snow on top of that, but then it turned to rain and rained all day. This event caused a lot of damage.

[Cloud]

11 minutes ago, Seattle said:

So there's really no precedent in the last 30 years of major icing north of SEA (minus foothill near passes)?

Not that I know of and I've lived here since 1992, we have minor ones with 1996 being the closest.. We usually don't have ice storms here. I think this upcoming one will be one of the rare exceptions. 

[joelgombiner]

Roof collapses were a big thing in '96. 

[Seattle]

9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Plenty of precedent, in the Fraser Valley.

Fraser Valley is a pass of sorts 

I meant in WA. Bellingham seems to escape freezing rain - I think Tim pointed out location on the water helps with the mixing. 

[Perturbed Member]

PDX just dropped to 34F. 

[Terreboner]

20 degree difference right now between here and Lava Butte just south of Bend.  Bend traffic cams don't have temp sensors working but looks like the cold push is down to a few miles north of Bend.

[MikeInEverett]

Mt. Pilchuck showing off today. Gorgeous afternoon.

[Tenochtitlan]

Amazing day up here. It feels like Boston, not the PNW! I even saw someone using a snowblower downtown.

[JW8]

I've never been a fan of overrunning events, even without ZR involved. It just makes me sad knowing that the snow falling is going to change over to rain soon. Don't really get to enjoy it.  

[Tenochtitlan]

A few pictures from this afternoon. It's just 15 degrees at the station downtown--it'll be interesting to see how cold it gets tonight (last night it got down to 11 there, just a degree warmer than BLI).

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Roof collapses were a big thing in '96. 

Collapsed roofs in 1996 were mainly attributed to the sheer weight of the snow during the overrunning event, not ice related we should address this point clearer. Some areas got like close to 2ft. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

24 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I remember there was much more snow in puget sound than was forecasted. 

My memory is that a few days after Christmas, when everyone by then had snow on the ground (Skagit County north had snow before Christmas), the forecast was for rain.  Maybe they thought the low would go North and bring warm air with it.

I was at my parents home in Anacortes, and it was during the 5pm news, and my mom upstairs came down to tell us they changed the forecast to snow. 

[Blizzard777]

32 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well Bing…I will still have at least sad looking dirty snow piles on Christmas anyway…

I’m a 94.1 guy but can’t wait for my classic rock to come back! Fun to listen to Delilah as well. Quite the woman and you don’t mess with her!  
 

27*

[Doinko]

Winter storm warning issued

[joelgombiner]

Just now, Cloud said:

Collapsed roofs in 1996 were mainly attributed to the sheer weight of the snow during the overrunning event, not ice related we should address this point clearer. Some areas got like close to 2ft. 

Definitely true! I think some places to the north are in a somewhat similar situation with this event where they will have heavy rain or freezing rain on >1 foot of snow. 

[Doinko]

The NWS is forecasting a 20/16 day for my area tomorrow. Seems a bit aggressive

[VancouverIslandSouth]

A few more shots from the local golf course/park, currently in use as a sled hill/x-country ski track. I do feel for the ducks though, they're desperately trying to keep the last remaining bit of their ponds from freezing.

 

[MWG]

Boring day here but it does feels colder than 45F.

[Terreboner]

Perfect conduit through the gorge and down into Central OR via the Cascades and Ochocos.

 

Wind Speed Forecast Map | Zoom Earth

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Definitely true! I think some places to the north are in a somewhat similar situation with this event where they will have heavy rain or freezing rain on >1 foot of snow. 

Yah, I think folks that got a thumping during the last event should watch for it... but at the same time, I don't think the current forecast calls for a major icing event past Seattle.

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Collapsed roofs in 1996 were mainly attributed to the sheer weight of the snow during the overrunning event, not ice related we should address this point clearer. Some areas got like close to 2ft. 

Yeah, my recollection was that the super heavy rain on the 29th falling immediately on top of the heavy snow is what weighted a lot of them down.

Edited December 21, 2022 by BLI snowman