PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Timmy]

Pdx -dls at -14.mb, pdx -ttd -12.7

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

43 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Only got down to 16F as raging east winds ramped up overnight. Stayed clear though! As always, it's always one detail away it seems... Next time

KSEA notching a fairly pedestrian 18F but with a dewpoint of 1 and easterlies gusting well over 30mph, it's hard to say this lower level airmass isn't an absolute beast.

This system is going to struggle to bring precip to the floor. Depending on how deep that offshore flow is will depend on  how much of this is snow. 

I still think the sound is going to bust this forecast and get more snow than freezing rain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 22. Still running a little cooler than the valley floor though by evening that will likely invert and we should be above freezing by daybreak tomorrow. 

[MossMan]

Yesterdays low ended up being 8, todays was 9, currently 15 and quite windy! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS looks fairly dry in the Portland area... and shows lots of sleet up here.    Are the freezing rain and sleet maps double counting the precip?   Its confusing.

Feels like with such a weak system the lower level warming will be much less aggressive. 

Edited December 22, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Terreboner]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Down to 22. Still running a little cooler than the valley floor though by evening that will likely invert and we should be above freezing by daybreak tomorrow. 

Looks like we got a skiff here last night, I was in bed at 8:30....I'm an early riser most days :).  Already was out this morning fixing my neighbor's furnace, I have to head out to Madras shortly.  Currently 3.6 degrees, was 9.5 at midnight. Wind chill -12.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Down to 9.5˚F again. Such a tease.

[Kayla]

Officially -45 at BZN as of the 9am reading. Another new daily record low shattered from 1983. Just insane.

We now wait to see the inter-hour readings if they broke a new all-time record. I would imagine that they did.

[FroYoBro]

PDX still trying to get the dp down to zero. 
 

#weak

[MossMan]

Wind is blowing some of the snow off of the trees making it look like it’s snowing. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Do we think PDX can wet bulb into the teens this evening?! 

[Blizzard777]

16 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I sometimes wonder that myself! It sure is beautiful from inside though!

Lord, I love your place!!! 

[Snownerd3000]

54 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

06z GFS wasn’t as suppressed and gives my area 16-20” of rain… 

I'll be building my ark

[Kayla]

Good lord, my station pressure is up to 1070 mb.

[Blizzard777]

46 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

Just pondering past storms especially in PDX.   So many times these storms fell apart as they approached PDX.  Moisture was never able to reach the ground because of the dry air mass.   Is their a chance this one might do the same?  I don’t remember the variable involved back in the day but it seemed to happen a lot.  

Anyone willing to take this on…..your thoughts with this current pattern??? 
 

[TeacherLori]

15 degrees here in Lynnwood.

[Kayla]

Did the thing on this -40 degree bluebird sky morning!

 

 

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This system is going to struggle to bring precip to the floor. Depending on how deep that offshore flow is will depend on  how much of this is snow. 

I still think the sound is going to bust this forecast and get more snow than freezing rain.

Something to add, the models Think this offshore flow is very shallow and to prove this look at the precip maps and you really don't see much of a upslope component on the east side of the Olympic mountains indicating a very shallow offshore layer. The thing to watch for is when the radar moves in we need to see what happens on the east side of the Olympic mountains and if there is precip building on the east slopes then the models have this wrong, the offshore layer is thicker into the atmosphere and the puget sound will be looking at a snow event for a longer duration. I still think there will be a period of freezing rain. I have been thinking about this for a few days trying to figure it out.  One thing also is this is a extreme high pressure dome east of the cascades and i believe that will wreck havoc with the models.  

[MossMan]

Just saw a pic on FB that the Stillaguamish River has ice flows coming down it! 

[Hawksfan2008]

14° with 40 mph gusts and a windchill of 0°. Already lots of branches down. The wife is going to the in laws but I’m riding this thing out  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Good lord, my station pressure is up to 1070 mb.

OMG are you kidding!!!!

[Ray]

18 degrees and no snow to speak of left. Heading out now to go get my daughter up in Bellingham to bring her home for the holiday. It is going to be interesting to see how this unfolds. I have lived through a couple pretty nasty ice storms. Let's hope some of these ice totals are overdone. Take care and stay safe everyone!

[Chewbacca Defense]

Just walked past my weather station display and saw that its 5 degrees out right now.  Impressive cold we've got going on here!

[Cascadia_Wx]

18 degrees currently with east winds gusting 30-40mph. Pretty impressive and the coldest outflow I’ve seen at this location. Too bad PDX won’t go below 20 with this event.

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Just saw a pic on FB that the Stillaguamish River has ice flows coming down it! 

Reminds me of the winter of 1709. 

When people across Europe went to sleep on the evening of January 5, 1709, they couldn't possibly have known what they were in for. When they woke the next morning, National Geographic says that the temperature had plunged to the very bottom of the thermometer. The snows started and didn't stop, and suddenly, this new, snow-covered world was an average temperature of about -5 Fahrenheit.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

18 degrees currently with east winds gusting 30-40mph. Pretty impressive and the coldest outflow I’ve seen at this location. Too bad PDX won’t go below 20 with this event.

So you don’t think they can wet bulb 2F this evening?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have a feeling this isn’t the last we will see of old man winter… 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

18 degrees currently with east winds gusting 30-40mph. Pretty impressive and the coldest outflow I’ve seen at this location. Too bad PDX won’t go below 20 with this event.

Trying to learn that area more. How can that be when corbett is 15 degrees?

I dont see how portland wont continue to drop to 18 or 19?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have a feeling this isn’t the last we will see of old man winter… 

Correct. I am expecting another arctic outbreak, just looks like the way the pattern is going in the long range.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The gfs was correct with the high pressure into Montana days ago.

[Snowdome]

Oregon City station just hit 19. Home gauge is still showing 21. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

7 minutes ago, Ray said:

18 degrees and no snow to speak of left. Heading out now to go get my daughter up in Bellingham to bring her home for the holiday. It is going to be interesting to see how this unfolds. I have lived through a couple pretty nasty ice storms. Let's hope some of these ice totals are overdone. Take care and stay safe everyone!

You should be fine until you get off the freeway.  Once you hit the side roads all bets are off.  I  think there are a couple of spots on the freeway with some black ice or are snow covered, but overall from what I have read I-5 is in good shape.

 

[The Blob]

Dropped to 18 IMBY 

[Ziess]

Just south of Canby my temp has gone from 25.2 to 26.2 since 4am. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS continues to show a really good mountain snow pattern setting up by about next Wednesday. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have a feeling this isn’t the last we will see of old man winter… 

[jakerepp]

Looks like we only got to 10 in Nampa this morning. 

KBOI said 7.

[Kayla]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The gfs was correct with the high pressure into Montana days ago.

Pretty wild. I think the GFS was actually probably more accurate on low temps as well. Euro definitely has a warm bias in the winter.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

26F and cloudy. DP is 20F. Brisk wind from the NNW.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS continues to show a really good mountain snow pattern setting up by about next Wednesday. 

No doubt... and shows 6 inches of snow in Bellingham through day 10.