PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Mr Marine Layer]

9 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

EUG does it! New Xmas daily record high!

Record high with no sunshine.

[awright-31]

18Z GFS still showing a good windstorm for Oregon, now at hr 48. It's actually a bit dialed down compared to the last few runs. Puget Sound still gusting to 40-45 mph too.

[Gradient Keeper]

IR/WV Imagery, 18z NWS/NCEP Pacific Surface Analysis

Merry Christmas
New Years Eve Countdown [6 Days]

12/25/22 2:14 PM

The Pacific has become very active, very quickly. Power house jet stream and multiple deep low pressure centers. This is a quite favorable pattern for wind storms. The system developing near ~40 N and ~168 W is looking particularly potent.

[Mr Marine Layer]

Today looks like it will be Eugene's hottest day  

[Mr Marine Layer]

7 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

IR/WV Imagery, 18z NWS/NCEP Pacific Surface Analysis

Merry Christmas
New Years Eve Countdown [6 Days]

12/25/22 2:14 PM

The Pacific has become very active, very quickly. Power house jet stream and multiple deep low pressure centers. This is a quite favorable pattern for wind storms. The system developing near ~40 N and ~168 W is looking particularly potent.

AR incoming

[Meatyorologist]

20 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Record high with no sunshine.

Not really a correlation this far north at this time of year. I80 southward solar radiation kind of helps a bit in December.

[fubario]

thinking about going to the coast to see the windstorm/surf...westport. maybe a bit south. any suggestions for places to stay for a night along the coast? thanks in advance!

[Mr Marine Layer]

55 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Checks computer models today. 99.9" of snow for South Lake Tahoe in the next 10 days. 

I don't believe you.

Should take a while to melt.

[Hawksfan2008]

21 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The main North Bend weather station is up to 52 now.   @Hawksfan2008 you can go back home! 

Just seeing this! I went back to grab a vehicle and check on the house and fence. Could not believe how many more branches fell after I left. Large branches throughout the whole yard and broke the fence in a few spots. Tree came down across the street and missed the neighbors house by a few feet. Out of town now for Christmas. Merry Christmas all! Windstorm Tuesday

[Meatyorologist]

The weather over the next two weeks looks wonderful. Suppressed jet, seasonal rainfall, cool weather, windstorms, great mountain snowpack building. Immense Sierra snowstorms. That 2010-11 analog keeps looking better and better.

[Doinko]

 

[Meatyorologist]

As for Rob leaving during our snow events... I respect the commitment and the dedication. Seems like he has his heart set on keeping that FB group lively. As a mod here I completely empathize. I do miss the frequent updates though!

[North_County]

Looking gross, but still counts. Inflatables don't appreciate outflow and ice storms, in case you were wondering. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

The GFS has been hinting at this for a couple runs now

[TacomaWx]

46 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The weather over the next two weeks looks wonderful. Suppressed jet, seasonal rainfall, cool weather, windstorms, great mountain snowpack building. Immense Sierra snowstorms. That 2010-11 analog keeps looking better and better.

The 2016-2017 analog is what I was thinking for awhile…but we’ve gone arctic this year which didn’t happen that winter. Both analog’s are good though. 2010-2011 analog starting to look better now. That year had 3 distinct windows for greatness to happen that winter. November 2010 worked out…January 2011 didn’t and February 2011 worked out. 

[TacomaWx]

51/47 today…0.10” of rain since midnight and 4.15” MTD. Just a couple more days of mild weather then we go into a more seasonal mountain snow pattern. Nice that things are staying active so far this cold season outside of the snow events. 

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

The 2016-2017 analog is what I was thinking for awhile…but we’ve gone arctic this year which didn’t happen that winter. Both analog’s are good though. 2010-2011 analog starting to look better now. That year had 3 distinct windows for greatness to happen that winter. November 2010 worked out…January 2011 didn’t and February 2011 worked out. 

We actually did have a decent airmass in December following the mid valley snowstorm on the 14th (850s down to -10.1 at Salem) and then another airmass in early January. I don't think 850s got that cold in early January but there was some very strong east wind and a snow/ice storm to transition out of it. Eugene had 4.5" of snow on the 7th, and we got a half inch of snow. PDX dropped to 17 degrees with the early January 2017 airmass (before the major snowstorm, they got down to 11 degrees after that)

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

We actually did have a decent airmass in December following the mid valley snowstorm on the 14th (850s down to -10.1 at Salem) and then another airmass in early January. I don't think 850s got that cold in early January but there was some very strong east wind and a snow/ice storm to transition out of it. Eugene had 4.5" of snow on the 7th, and we got a half inch of snow. PDX dropped to 17 degrees with the early January 2017 airmass (before the major snowstorm, they got down to 11 degrees after that)

It wasn't as impressive in the Puget Sound but SEA dropped to 20 degrees and had 3" of snow with an isolated convergence zone I think

[Canadian guy]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

The 2016-2017 analog is what I was thinking for awhile…but we’ve gone arctic this year which didn’t happen that winter. Both analog’s are good though. 2010-2011 analog starting to look better now. That year had 3 distinct windows for greatness to happen that winter. November 2010 worked out…January 2011 didn’t and February 2011 worked out. 

The great thing about both of those winters was that there seemed to be something to track all season long (more so 2016/17). Hopefully we follow those years and something starts showing up in models soon. 

[Doinko]

The first 17 days of January 2017 were extremely impressive here. It was actually the coldest Jan 1st to 17th on record at PDX with an average temperature of 28.5, beating out 1979, 1950 and 1949.

Hillsboro has a longer POR (1930 - Present) and it was even more impressive, averaging 26.9 degrees, beating out 1937, 1930, and 1942. They also dropped to 3 degrees on the 13th, the coldest since 1972.

The first 17 days averaged 30.0 at Eugene, 31.4 at Salem, 30.0 at Corvallis (only behind 1979) even though those places didn't have significant snow cover going into the low level cold from the 11th to the 17th. We had 14" of snow in that stretch as well, by far the snowiest month in this location probably since December 2008

[awright-31]

Peak of the Tuesday wind on the 18Z Euro. 3pm Tuesday. Looks like a longer-duration event as well with gusts over 40 mph at KOLM for 10-12 hrs. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Gem is also showing that possibility with the GFS

[Meatyorologist]

Some virga due to unseasonable midlevel convection. Wharm phloe alopht

[MossMan]

19 minutes ago, awright-31 said:

Peak of the Tuesday wind on the 18Z Euro. 3pm Tuesday. Looks like a longer-duration event as well with gusts over 40 mph at KOLM for 10-12 hrs. 

Ugh. Boring non event up here.

[Phishy Wx]

KGEG currently is -9 on their December temp average to date.  with the warmer wx coming over the next week curious how much we give back.  pretty impressive after I believe was a -7.8 November.

[Phishy Wx]

still holding on at 32 with Freezing Fog

[mtep]

White-ish Christmas in Sudden Valley! Ended up spending my first chrimmis in WA after having my flight to Nashville cancelled on Friday. 

[Phishy Wx]

a little climatology note. The 
temperature at the Spokane Airport has been below freezing since 
the 12th. Which means we will have been below freezing for nearly 
2 weeks. This is the longest streak since January 2017 when we hit
18 days. fx

 

Local media last night said we've been below 40 since I believe 11/8 (sometime in early/mid November)

 

both streaks should fall this week

[NWbyNW]

2 hours ago, fubario said:

thinking about going to the coast to see the windstorm/surf...westport. maybe a bit south. any suggestions for places to stay for a night along the coast? thanks in advance!

I've never been there but I keep seeing tv ads for Quinault Beach Resort with these very tempting weekday offers that include dining vouchers.  One night stay with $50 dollar food and gaming credit (if you gamble) for $159.  That seems like a pretty decent offer.  Again, I have never been there, so I don't know.  Website 

I've also been tempted to rent a cabin at Seabrook because the town looks really neat.  I've also never stayed there, but it's a bit spendy.  

I've stayed at a few hotels/motels in Ocean Shores and Westport, as well as camped.  They are pretty decent and with off-season pricing you can find stuff around $100 bucks, maybe a bit under.  I always aim for the free breakfasts too!   The best places to have hotels facing the open ocean and getting the full brunt of the storm would be Ocean Shores over Westport.  The hotels in Westport are more protected than the open water facing hotels of Ocean Shores... though personally I find Westport more interesting a place to visit.  

Good luck!

[NWbyNW]

All calm on the Westport front.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

32 minutes ago, mtep said:

White-ish Christmas in Sudden Valley! Ended up spending my first chrimmis in WA after having my flight to Nashville cancelled on Friday. 

 

2 years in a row for SV.  I lived there for 12 years.  Really liked it there.

[Phishy Wx]

hit 33, this 'should' commence the melt.  thought that too last night when we briefly hit 33 and then later plummeted to 25 overnight, but supposedly the air mass is warmer at 850mb tonight, so this should do it I'd imagine

[Mr Marine Layer]

12 minutes ago, icyasf said:

59F/45F day today. Several frogs were croaking, and we typically don’t hear them this early.

Spring has sprung

[NWbyNW]

We got two rain bands to deal with.  The first and smaller rain band has already hit much of the populated places, and a larger, bigger rain band is right off the coast already wetting the tip of the Olympic Peninsula.  Wet tip!   Puget Sound is currently getting rained on from Marysville to Centralia.  Portland's western burbs are getting wet as we speak.  Temps are pretty warm throughout the western region, varying from 40s to low 50s. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Great holiday at the Nelsen house. 

[joelgombiner]

No need to pray to the weather gods any more. You can now just buy global cooling from a startup that will inject sulfate into the stratosphere on your behalf.  They claim they can produce 0.1 F of global cooling for $1 billion or 1 x 10^-9 F for $10. They literally have a page where you can buy "cooling credits". LMAO. 

https://makesunsets.com/pages/about

https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/12/24/1066041/a-startup-says-its-begun-releasing-particles-into-the-atmosphere-in-an-effort-to-tweak-the-climate/

[joelgombiner]

8 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

We got two rain bands to deal with.  The first and smaller rain band has already hit much of the populated places, and a larger, bigger rain band is right off the coast already wetting the tip of the Olympic Peninsula.  Wet tip!   Puget Sound is currently getting rained on from Marysville to Centralia.  Portland's western burbs are getting wet as we speak.  Temps are pretty warm throughout the western region, varying from 40s to low 50s. 

Can confirm. It's been dumping here in that more inland band! 

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

No need to pray to the weather gods any more. You can now just buy global cooling from a startup that will inject sulfate into the stratosphere on your behalf.  They claim they can produce 0.1 F of global cooling for $1 billion or 1 x 10^-9 F for $10. They literally have a page where you can buy "cooling credits". LMAO. 

https://makesunsets.com/pages/about

https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/12/24/1066041/a-startup-says-its-begun-releasing-particles-into-the-atmosphere-in-an-effort-to-tweak-the-climate/

if it were that easy....

[Phishy Wx]

21 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Spring has sprung

its over

[Kolk1604]

9 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

No need to pray to the weather gods any more. You can now just buy global cooling from a startup that will inject sulfate into the stratosphere on your behalf.  They claim they can produce 0.1 F of global cooling for $1 billion or 1 x 10^-9 F for $10. They literally have a page where you can buy "cooling credits". LMAO. 

https://makesunsets.com/pages/about

https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/12/24/1066041/a-startup-says-its-begun-releasing-particles-into-the-atmosphere-in-an-effort-to-tweak-the-climate/

Sounds like something from GeoStorm 

[joelgombiner]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

if it were that easy....

Exactly. Every expert quoted in the article says that we have very little idea how this would actually affect climate/weather. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

10 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

No need to pray to the weather gods any more. You can now just buy global cooling from a startup that will inject sulfate into the stratosphere on your behalf.  They claim they can produce 0.1 F of global cooling for $1 billion or 1 x 10^-9 F for $10. They literally have a page where you can buy "cooling credits". LMAO. 

https://makesunsets.com/pages/about

https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/12/24/1066041/a-startup-says-its-begun-releasing-particles-into-the-atmosphere-in-an-effort-to-tweak-the-climate/

[joelgombiner]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Sounds like something from GeoStorm 

Just looked like this up, and as a huge fan of Day After Tomorrow... I may need to watch this 

[NWbyNW]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Sounds like something from GeoStorm 

Did someone mention Geo Storm?  The finest vehicle ever crafted? 

Photo Credit: Myself.

[joelgombiner]

6 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Did someone mention Geo Storm?  The finest vehicle ever crafted? 

Photo Credit: Myself.

Geo always seemed like a great, fuel-efficient brand to me. Never understood why it disappeared. 

[Doinko]

43/33 today at PDX so far.

[joelgombiner]

Firehose aimed at the PNW. Tons of tropical moisture being pumped in. 

[NWbyNW]

7 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Geo always seemed like a great, fuel-efficient brand to me. Never understood why it disappeared. 

Short answer was that no one wanted Suzuki's/Isuzu's as Suzuki's/Isuzu's, and no one wanted a Suzuki/Isuzu's with a Geo badge either.   GM's cheap attempt to capture the import craze was just not enough.  Most of the cars were too small and had odd 'Japanese-isms' that American buyers didn't care for.  Today we look back on them as neat oddities.  Sure they got great mileage, but they were pretty tight inside with pretty cheap materials... very cheap materials. 

Probably the best selling Geo's were the Tracker, which was a Suzuki Sidekick, and the Geo Prizm, which was a rebadged Toyota Corolla.  Even after GM ended Geo, they actually made a few rebadged Corolla's as the Chevy Prizm.  Very strange history for this brand indeed. Also the iconic Geo Metro!  The car of champions!

Okay, I will stop being the car nerd/historian now. 

[Meatyorologist]

Check this out y'all... Incredibly weird and rare event in Anchorage!

[joelgombiner]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Check this out y'all... Incredibly weird and rare event in Anchorage!

A severe tropopause fold?