PNW December 2022 - Part II

[awright-31]

12Z Euro ice map. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, The Blob said:

It's coming

Not wasting any time cutting over to that pink stuff, either.

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, awright-31 said:

12Z Euro ice map. 

Can you post the sleet map? 

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like PDX is up to 22 after bottoming out for the event at 21.

Definitely has tracked pretty well with 2004 so far. Definitely still a fighting chance they sneak down to 19 with the wet bulb.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Can you post the sleet map? 

And snow as well if possible! 

[Richard Van Dijk]

I have a question... Once this system leaves North America, will it go on and affect Iceland, and Europe after that as well, or will it die out on the ocean.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looks good for some snow from Seattle northward... not so lucky out here.

[awright-31]

3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Can you post the sleet map? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The long range ensembles torch the hell out of the East Coast. 

[TT-SEA]

Temps at noon and 4 p.m. tomorrow per 12Z ECMWF...

 

[Winterdog]

8 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

Mines frozen solid. My Ma used to wrap the little twinkle Christmas lights around hers, to keep them warmer. Works well, if you have some of the old light strands. These new fangled LEDs don't get warm enough.

I had light bulbs on my two feeders last year but this year covid and RSV put a damper on my energy level so I didn't to it.  I figure I have only one day to keep alternating the feeders before it warms up.  I read where the hummingbirds have a tough time surviving in real cold temps when they are used to feeders, so I've been thoroughly guilted into this.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The long range ensembles torch the hell out of the East Coast. 

I can already sense Jim’s schadenfreude.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows south winds have taken over around the Puget Sound area by 7 p.m. tomorrow.

[RentonHill]

25 minutes ago, Chowders said:

I'll be at my place that week with my family.   Have you looked into having it plowed.  I use Cascade Concrete and they only charge me about $50 a plow for a driveway that's 250 feet or so.  I have them plow ever 7 inches.  Typically I pay about $350 or so every plow season. This year will be a bit more.

I'd be curious to see what someone what charge us for it. Its a 2.5 mile "driveway" that is basically unmaintained road. It takes about 3 hours to do a full pass on it with a few hairy spots that require delicate handling. And after every other pass you need to do an extra run down on the edge to push the berm off the hillside so it doesnt turn into an ice wall. 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Definitely has tracked pretty well with 2004 so far. Definitely still a fighting chance they sneak down to 19 with the wet bulb.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Temps at noon and 4 p.m. tomorrow per 12Z ECMWF...

 

Wonder if the valley really mixes out that fast. I wouldn’t be shocked if PDX doesn’t get out of the mid 20s tomorrow .

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Temps at noon and 4 p.m. tomorrow per 12Z ECMWF...

 

Wouldn’t take much to prolong the freezing rain if the models are too quick to scour the cold air like they love to do. Those temps are right on the edge. At least we will still have solid snowcover for Christmas Eve! 

[dhoffine]

Anyone wanna take a stab at when the ice will start in the central sound?  Travel concerns for kids tomorrow...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wonder if the valley really mixes out that fast. I wouldn’t be shocked if PDX doesn’t get out of the mid 20s tomorrow .

The east valley might. But not the west valley.

[Kayla]

Looks like BZN bottomed out at -45. Just one degree short of the all-time record there!

It's still only -36 there as of 11am so they have a real shot at the all-time record cold day of -33.5 set in 1983. As long as their high stays below -22 today it will be the coldest day in history there.

Looks like Bozeman MSU bottomed out at -45 as well so they only need to stay below -10 today to have the coldest day on record. Record there is -27.5 set in 1916.

[SnowWillarrive]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF looks good for some snow from Seattle northward... not so lucky out here.

That will be wrong. 2-5 inches Olympia north.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Told my family to cancel their travel plans tomorrow to Redding, Cali. I barely trust this driver to drive in sunshine, let alone freezing rain. 

Edited December 22, 2022 by SouthHillFrosty

[MossMan]

 

[luterra]

25 minutes ago, The Blob said:

It's coming

None of that is actually reaching the ground.  No precip so far in Corvallis.

[GHweatherChris]

Good to see the 850 temp warm up is not as aggressive as originally modeled.

[Perturbed Member]

06z Euro already had 850mb temps above freezing in PDX by 8 AM and at +1c by 10 AM. The 10 AM SPC Mesoanalysis is still between -1c and -3c across the metro area. 

[Chowders]

8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I'd be curious to see what someone what charge us for it. Its a 2.5 mile "driveway" that is basically unmaintained road. It takes about 3 hours to do a full pass on it with a few hairy spots that require delicate handling. And after every other pass you need to do an extra run down on the edge to push the berm off the hillside so it doesnt turn into an ice wall. 

 

That's a long stretch. Do you share the maintenance with anyone?  That would help on the cost.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Temps at noon and 4 p.m. tomorrow per 12Z ECMWF...

 

No way that is correct. It will not be as cold in bremerton as in bellingham. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The long range ensembles torch the hell out of the East Coast. 

Judah’s model says otherwise, so there.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wonder if the valley really mixes out that fast. I wouldn’t be shocked if PDX doesn’t get out of the mid 20s tomorrow .

Even accounting for improvements in mesoscale modeling, I’d guess the deep freeze for most of the metro area extends by 12 hours or so. The good thing is, precip stays pretty light even with that extension. Couple that with what might be a few hours of sleet at the onset and it’s not hard to imagine the ice impacts will be pretty negligible over most of the metro area. Those impacted the most in 2021 will probably laugh it off. 

[Front Ranger]

27 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like PDX is up to 22 after bottoming out for the event at 21.

Give virga a chance!

[Front Ranger]

DEN bottomed out at -24 this morning. Coldest temp by far since December 1990, and only one degree short of the all-time record.

[smerfylicious]

Well the wind has finally slowed down from 40mph. It's 19° and the wind chill is incredibly cold.

My wife says that this is hot dog grilling weather

[Chewbacca Defense]

Kinda fun having this new weather display set up and watching the precip move in.

I need to figure out how to get my personal weather station to display on it, currently 12 here as opposed to the 16 it is showing.  Im guessing that is at the airport

[Perturbed Member]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Even accounting for improvements in mesoscale modeling, I’d guess the deep freeze for most of the metro area extends by 12 hours or so. The good thing is, precip stays pretty light even with that extension. Couple that with what might be a few hours of sleet at the onset and it’s not hard to imagine the ice impacts will be pretty negligible over most of the metro area. Those impacted the most in 2021 will probably laugh it off. 

Yeah the precip is looking pretty pathetic. 

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Looks like BZN bottomed out at -45. Just one degree short of the all-time record there!

It's still only -36 there as of 11am so they have a real shot at the all-time record cold day of -33.5 set in 1983. As long as their high stays below -22 today it will be the coldest day in history there.

Looks like Bozeman MSU bottomed out at -45 as well so they only need to stay below -10 today to have the coldest day on record there. Record there is -27.5 set in 1916.

I thought -43 was the all-time record?

[Randyc321]

10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wouldn’t take much to prolong the freezing rain if the models are too quick to scour the cold air like they love to do. Those temps are right on the edge. At least we will still have solid snowcover for Christmas Eve! 

For a a change I am happy to be in one of the warmer areas.  Looks 42-43 deg here by 7 pm..  We usually warm up fast and cool off slow here on East shore of the island.  Usually a bane, this time maybe a blessing.

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I thought -43 was the all-time record?

BZN all-time record is -46. Bozeman MSU record is (was) -43.

[Randyc321]

10 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Good to see the 850 temp warm up is not as aggressive as originally modeled.

Not aggressive might even be an exaggeration.  I can't see that it has budged in the last hour and a half I have been watching it.

[Doinko]

Euro looks windy next Tuesday (The NW view doesn't really capture it well)