PNW December 2022 - Part II

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I just don't know the point at which snow is impossible when 850mb and 925mb temps cannot support it... even if the cold outflow continues.  

Yeah what are the minimums for those? Especially the 850’s? 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I just don't know the point at which snow is impossible when 850mb and 925mb temps cannot support it... even if the cold outflow continues.  

My gut tells me there will be very little ice and a bunch of snow and sleet north of tacoma.

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I just don't know the point at which snow is impossible when 850mb and 925mb temps cannot support it... even if the cold outflow continues.  

I was wondering about this. By the way currently below 0 at paradise at 5400 feet. 

[AlTahoe]

43 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

We’re almost the coldest spot in the CONUS at 5,000 feet next Thursday morning!

I am already planning to get sandbags this weekend. With 6' snow banks along the roads it turns our streets into canals during warm AR's. Not looking forward to the next two weeks. Lame 

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I just don't know the point at which snow is impossible when 850mb and 925mb temps cannot support it... even if the cold outflow continues.  

This event might be historic in the amount of "wintry/mixed precip" that happens. Going to be a lot of weird stuff falling from the sky. Probably no iguanas, though.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I just don't know the point at which snow is impossible when 850mb and 925mb temps cannot support it... even if the cold outflow continues.  

I asked this question yesterday and it appears we have no clue. No one knows it seems. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I just don't know the point at which snow is impossible when 850mb and 925mb temps cannot support it... even if the cold outflow continues.  

We will be able to watch some mountain top temps and get a good idea. If those stay in the mid 20"s we will have snow. There is a good one to watch in the olympics at 4k feet called buckinghorse. They have already made it to 22 from like 10 so the upper levels are warming rapidly.

[gusky]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I just don't know the point at which snow is impossible when 850mb and 925mb temps cannot support it... even if the cold outflow continues.  

Seems like the window for snow would end pretty early on in the event, unless we get stronger outflow than expected. It is a good question about what the maximum temps to support snow are in this scenario.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

This event might be historic in the amount of "wintry/mixed precip" that happens. Going to be a lot of weird stuff falling from the sky. Probably no iguanas, though.

It will be variable. Some places might get 4 inches of snow and ten miles away might have just sleet 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

19 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

Doesn't the eastside sometimes warm up faster than areas closer to the water in these warm air aloft situations?

From what I've experienced yes and no. Upper levels do warm faster, especially if there is a south wind. But lower levels can get fed cold air and take longer to scour out. Perfect recipe for zr. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This will be a incredible test for the models to see how good they are now.

In the past most of the ice or sleet storms predicted ended up as snow.

[OysterPrintout]

There was a discussion about temps in the upper levels and snow in the way back machine here:

 

 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This will be a incredible test for the models to see how good they are now.

In the past most of the ice or sleet storms predicted ended up as snow.

I guess I can’t speak for up there but down here the models very rarely jack up the mid and upper levels when it comes to precip type. It’s almost always low level dynamics that bust good/bad. The reasons for this are pretty obvious as free-air from the west is typically a chip shot for models to resolve.

[SouthHillFrosty]

9 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I am already planning to get sandbags this weekend. With 6' snow banks along the roads it turns our streets into canals during warm AR's. Not looking forward to the next two weeks. Lame 

Post photo’s of the snowbank!

[Skier B]

Wife took a picture of me this morning on our back deck sound asleep.  Some new gear arrived so I figured perfect time to test it out last night!

16 for the low.  Wind kicked up replicating a nice mountain like environment.  22 now.

 

[xfkirsten]

I think this may be one of the rare cases where this is actually a big problem here!

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I guess I can’t speak for up there but down here the models very rarely jack up the mid and upper levels when it comes to precip type. It’s almost always low level dynamics that bust good/bad. The reasons for this are pretty obvious as free-air from the west is typically a chip shot for models to resolve.

Is the warmth of the storm determined by infrared satellite?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Clouding up again here, the outflow kept it from getting much colder last night. Bottomed out at 16.8F and currently 19.4F.

[JW8]

Does anyone have wind maps handy for the Puget Sound area tonight through tomorrow? Curious what direction and speeds we're looking at.

[Blizzard777]

41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am concerned about the fact that the models always rush the scouring out of cold air and the crap ton of precip being shown on Saturday.   ECMWF says its all rain... but playing with fire with that much precip and knowing the models might be warming us too fast.  

Definitely a Mother Nature blind side move possible. We’ve witnessed so many times before 

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, Skier B said:

Wife took a picture of me this morning on our back deck sound asleep.  Some new gear arrived so I figured perfect time to test it out last night!

16 for the low.  Wind kicked up replicating a nice mountain like environment.  22 now.

 

Best self-reveal yet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Noticed Mt. Yoncalla at 1800’ halfway between Eugene and Roseburg is sitting at 21 right now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX back down to 21. 

[Blizzard777]

11 minutes ago, Skier B said:

Wife took a picture of me this morning on our back deck sound asleep.  Some new gear arrived so I figured perfect time to test it out last night!

16 for the low.  Wind kicked up replicating a nice mountain like environment.  22 now.

 

WHaT DID YOU DO!?!    Dogs start scratching on the door and our eventually let in.  Good luck 

[Cloud]

Just for sh*ts and giggles but the 0z CFS shows this at the end of its run.  Lock it in baby! 

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

PDX back down to 21. 

Is that one the mesowest site? I see a current temp of 22 with a DP of 0.

 

[AlTahoe]

19 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Post photo’s of the snowbank!

here's one without water. if it floods I will update it. 

[WhoNeedsAC]

Radar is starting to fill in in NW Oregon, but nothing seems to be hitting the ground yet. Even the coast looks dry so far. I did get a chuckle out of this, though:

 

 

[Deweydog]

14 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Is the warmth of the storm determined by infrared satellite?

That’s probably one piece of the massive modeling puzzle.

[Perturbed Member]

That precip to the west is looking a bit better than I thought. 850s over PDX at 0c to -1c. I am further west and should be about +0.5c. Obviously we will have some initial wet bulbing up there. If I'm going to see any snow at all with this event it will probably be in the next hour or two. 

[MossMan]

Temp up to 22. It’s over. 
The wind this morning brought down some residual leaves. 

[Slushy Inch]

8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Just for sh*ts and giggles but the 0z CFS shows this at the end of its run.  Lock it in baby! 

Well, Euro weeklies do come out tonight

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

Temp up to 22. It’s over. 
The wind this morning brought down some residual leaves. 

When I went down to North Bend this morning I saw blowing snow and leaves flying at the same time.   Very strange for the end of December.   

[Ellsworb]

Vasectomy complete. Let the snow/sleet/ice storm begin! 23/5 with very gusty winds on the east shore of Lake Tapps. 

[MossMan]

[Cold Snap]

Currently 20. Got down to 11 this morning. So close to the single digits again. Guess I’ll be waiting for the next really cold airmass to hopefully get into the single digits. That’s okay though. Also the fountain has frozen solid!

[runninthruda206]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I watched this movie over a hundred times as a kid lol

[Prairiedog]

I've warmed from 24f to 27.  I'm a bit protected from the easterlies but its still mixing down to where we're at on the creek.  Light breeze.  

 

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Temp up to 22. It’s over. 
The wind this morning brought down some residual leaves. 

Might be a good thing if we are to deal with this ice storm! Get some of that surface areas off. I mentioned yesterday that there are still a lot of trees here with leaves still on them. Kinda weird given calendar. 

[Jbolin]

How do I do a search for a past/old post?