PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Deweydog]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the big wildcard that could speed up our road to cold would be an unexpectedly potent MJO wave.  Would love to see January deliver this winter or at least not be a total turd.

First half of the month is toast. 

[snow_wizard]

I see a lot of people are taking a break from the forum after the recent craziness.  I totally get it....I was spent yesterday.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Deweydog said:

First half of the month is toast. 

Yeah....other than maybe a few coolish mP type days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

62 in downtown Salem. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

62 in downtown Salem. 

One thing after those extremely high amp blocks, it's hard to not torch for a while afterward.  So far I've gotten off pretty easy here in that regard.

[Meatyorologist]

29 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's beginning to look like the models are latching onto a fairly drawn out retrogression scenario going forward.  Big ridge sets up along the East Coast, retrogrades to the West for a while, and then ends up over the GOA late this next month.  With some coolish weather early in the month, maybe some fake cold mid month, and then real cold late month we could still pull out a chilly January.

Obviously this whole idea could change in a day though.

That makes sense.

[gusky]

Don't know how much talk there is of this as I haven't been on since before Christmas but tonight and tmrw could be a pretty major windstorm for the Oregon coast.

[smerfylicious]

Has there been an accurate long-range forecast wince the summer? I seem to remember them all being grossly wrong so far. 

Most of them tried to do away with the blocking regime that we had been stuck in until last week all the way back in September. 

Something is really throwing models off more than normal, and that something sure looks like Hunga Tonga. Maybe there's nothing in the models to account for that amount of water vapor in the upper stratosphere, or there's no data to account for it.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, smerfylicious said:

Has there been an accurate long-range forecast wince the summer? I seem to remember them all being grossly wrong so far. 

Most of them tried to do away with the blocking regime that we had been stuck in until last week all the way back in September. 

Something is really throwing models off more than normal, and that something sure looks like Hunga Tonga. Maybe there's nothing in the models to account for that amount of water vapor in the upper stratosphere, or there's no data to account for it.

Long range forecasting has never been good.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Has there been an accurate long-range forecast wince the summer? I seem to remember them all being grossly wrong so far. 

Most of them tried to do away with the blocking regime that we had been stuck in until last week all the way back in September. 

Something is really throwing models off more than normal, and that something sure looks like Hunga Tonga. Maybe there's nothing in the models to account for that amount of water vapor in the upper stratosphere, or there's no data to account for it.

There are two huge anomalies in the stratosphere from 25S to 65S that have to be offset in some way in the global atmospheric "budget".  Those being abnormally high water vapor and abnormally cold strat temps.

I still think the smoking gun could be the solar grand minimum also.  This exact effect was speculated by some scientists as the GM really got going.

[The Blob]

Looks whet outside

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

17 hours ago, mtep said:

White-ish Christmas in Sudden Valley! Ended up spending my first chrimmis in WA after having my flight to Nashville cancelled on Friday. 

 

2 years in a row for SV.  I lived there for 12 years.  Really liked it there.

[snow_wizard]

With regard to the possible wind event for some areas over the next day or two...I can't ever recall seeing a low just stall right at the North Coast of WA and pretty much die there before moving inland.   Really strange.  Should still be some fairly good winds in some areas though.

[RentonHill]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The ice on top of the snow is crazy here.

Any really bad parts on the roads so far? Thinking of trying to go up tomorrow. 

[Omegaraptor]

10 minutes ago, gusky said:

Don't know how much talk there is of this as I haven't been on since before Christmas but tonight and tmrw could be a pretty major windstorm for the Oregon coast.

Will be interesting to see how windy Sunriver gets tomorrow. I’m not sure how good south-central OR is for windstorms like these.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I'm still below freezing here.  Right now at 30, warmest in a long time.  I don't think I've been above freezing since early November.   We've had lots of freezing rain over the last 48 hours and everything is pretty icy.  Highway 2 might be ok, not sure about other roads.   All the cross country ski trails in town are closed because it's a sheet of ice.

They are still forecasting rain and then snow overnight, and maybe more snow later this week.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Running my stats, this week is going to ruin most of the cold anomalies for the month south of PDX. That’s okay. Will essentially go cold November, average December, warm January, and cold February and March. 🫠

[smerfylicious]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

There are two huge anomalies in the stratosphere from 25S to 65S that have to be offset in some way in the global atmospheric "budget".  Those being abnormally high water vapor and abnormally cold strat temps.

I still think the smoking gun could be the solar grand minimum also.  This exact effect was speculated by some scientists as the GM really got going.

Well based on solar activity we likely aren't in GSM and won't be until the 2030's

[Doinko]

PDX is down to 39?

[smerfylicious]

5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I'm still below freezing here.  Right now at 30, warmest in a long time.  I don't think I've been above freezing since early November.   We've had lots of freezing rain over the last 48 hours and everything is pretty icy.  Highway 2 might be ok, not sure about other roads.   All the cross country ski trails in town are closed because it's a sheet of ice.

They are still forecasting rain and then snow overnight, and maybe more snow later this week.  

We were gonna spend Christmas Eve there but the pass closed before we got in the car I had to improvise a dinner, and lemme just say prime roast are CHEAP on Christmas eve. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I'm still below freezing here.  Right now at 30, warmest in a long time.  I don't think I've been above freezing since early November.   We've had lots of freezing rain over the last 48 hours and everything is pretty icy.  Highway 2 might be ok, not sure about other roads.   All the cross country ski trails in town are closed because it's a sheet of ice.

They are still forecasting rain and then snow overnight, and maybe more snow later this week.  

Just came over blewett. It was fine, snow looks shiny. Warm air punched through at my cabin. 34 degrees. The amount of snow in the Okanagan valley is nuts! 2 feet on the ground in omak and pateros is just crazy.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Any really bad parts on the roads so far? Thinking of trying to go up tomorrow. 

Roads are fine. 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Just came over blewett. It was fine, snow looks shiny. Warm air punched through at my cabin. 34 degrees. The amount of snow in the Okanagan valley is nuts! 2 feet on the ground in omak and pateros is just crazy.  

Very 1996-ish over there.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I'm still below freezing here.  Right now at 30, warmest in a long time.  I don't think I've been above freezing since early November.   We've had lots of freezing rain over the last 48 hours and everything is pretty icy.  Highway 2 might be ok, not sure about other roads.   All the cross country ski trails in town are closed because it's a sheet of ice.

They are still forecasting rain and then snow overnight, and maybe more snow later this week.  

Looks like I will have about 24 hrs of wet snow or a mix tomorrow and then Tuesday night snow level comes back down.  Normally the arctic air hangs on better up here but even Winthrop is at 30 now. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Very 1996-ish over there.

I was thinking of you when I drove through there. I bet this is the deepest there since 96. Looks like about 30 inches deep in pateros.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Just came over blewett. It was fine, snow looks shiny. Warm air punched through at my cabin. 34 degrees. The amount of snow in the Okanagan valley is nuts! 2 feet on the ground in omak and pateros is just crazy.  

Blewett had been closed earlier this morning because of a jack-knifed semi.  Glad it's cleared up.  

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is terrible at the end....especially by January standards.  A lot of seasonably cool days after tomorrow.

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I was thinking of you when I drove through there. I bet this is the deepest there since 96. Looks like about 30 inches deep in pateros.

I talked to my old boss over there yesterday and he said just that, although this run was more persistent. He said they have about three and a half feet at Alta Lake. Just an incredible 11/1-12/25 for them.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF is terrible at the end....especially by January standards.  A lot of seasonably cool days after tomorrow.

IS terrible? By January standards? That must be pretty bad. Or maybe you meant is not terrible? 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

I talked to my old boss over there yesterday and he said just that, although this run was more persistent. He said they have about three and a half feet at Alta Lake. Just an incredible 11/1-12/25 for them.

Did you work at the golf course?

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF is terrible at the end....especially by January standards.  A lot of seasonably cool days after tomorrow.

idk, looks cool and active and wet to me. not terrible at all.

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Did you work at the golf course?

I didn’t. I did play horrible golf there on several occasions though.

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF is terrible at the end....especially by January standards.  A lot of seasonably cool days after tomorrow.

 

12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

idk, looks cool and active and wet to me. not terrible at all.

I think it was a typo…Possibly? 

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I see a lot of people are taking a break from the forum after the recent craziness.  I totally get it....I was spent yesterday.

It’s also Christmas holidays. People have family commitments 

[MWG]

Currently 48F and rain.

No wonder yesterday seemed very suspicious about the temps at the airport. Yesterday was reporting 63F but we didn't even make it to 50F.

From Medford NWS

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

idk, looks cool and active and wet to me. not terrible at all.

I would not be surprised by a January that ends up near normal. 

1) It doesn't take much these days with the new averages. 

2) Once that low goes through tomorrow we are pretty much done with extreme torching. 

3) We are still in the heart of inversion season for the next 2-3 weeks. 

4) Most long range guidance has us torching much less than the rest of the country. 

5) Going off the long range GEFS runs, one could make a strong case surface temps in the PNW will be near to slightly BELOW normal in January. 

6) The last week of the month definitely has strong potential, and could pull down averages. 

If I were to make a guess on January I would say near normal temps and precip. 

[MossMan]

Well I put all of the snow related items back in their waiting areas…Until January 18th when things go nuts again! And my driveway snow pile is hanging in there! 
Currently 50 degrees. 

[ShawniganLake]

45 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

With regard to the possible wind event for some areas over the next day or two...I can't ever recall seeing a low just stall right at the North Coast of WA and pretty much die there before moving inland.   Really strange.  Should still be some fairly good winds in some areas though.

Im not really seeing anything too unusual in it. The low pressure is already filling in by tomorrow morning. Crosses through the strait around mid day tomorrow and then the low center reforms east of the Rockies later in the day. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Im not really seeing anything too unusual in it. The low pressure is already filling in by tomorrow morning. Crosses through the strait around mid day tomorrow and then the low center reforms east of the Rockies later in the day. 

Do you think there will be any westerly surge down the strait? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE has bumped to 61 now. This is painful to watch. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Did Hoquiam seriously hit 65 this morning? A lot of places sure are paying for that BLAST of low level cold in short order.

Meanwhile we are still hanging on to a tiny sliver of cold near the Gorge. 43 here, 39 at PDX. Ended up with a 44/32 day yesterday.
 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

SLE has bumped to 61 now. This is painful to watch. 

Really glad PDX has the gorge. It's 39 there and in the 50s at Hillsboro and my place. They only got up to 43 yesterday

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We are at 5.11" of precip on the month. Average being around 11.5", I just don't see a path there at this point. Going by the GFS and EURO we will end up in the 8-10" range it looks like. Certainly not a disastrously dry month. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Doinko said:

Really glad PDX has the gorge. It's 39 there and in the 50s at Hillsboro and my place. They only got up to 43 yesterday

Yeah, PDX manages to avoid the insane torch and will end up with a solidly below average December. It works both ways sometimes. December 2017 ended up really cold for SLE and EUG basically because a bunch of early month low level cold stuff. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Doinko said:

Really glad PDX has the gorge. It's 39 there and in the 50s at Hillsboro and my place. They only got up to 43 yesterday

I feel like once the wind switches to southerly there they will start putting up some really absurd warm numbers. Usually they are one of the last stations to give up the chilly offshore flow during the cold season, but once the switch to southerlies finally happens they become one of the torchiest spots on the west side.

[MossMan]

I am growing more jealous by the moment as my wife and kids are flying out to the Cabo area tomorrow to join our neighbors/friends at their beach house there. It’s too hard for me to leave the house in the winter since my mom lives with us and the risk of power outages, etc are just too great for me to go far from the house this time of the year. I will be going in the spring however, looking forward to that! Looks like they will have perfect weather. 

[Timmy]

At rockaway beach for the week.  Should be some fun storm watching 

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Did Hoquiam seriously hit 65 this morning? A lot of places sure are paying for that BLAST of low level cold in short order.

Meanwhile we are still hanging on to a tiny sliver of cold near the Gorge. 43 here, 39 at PDX. Ended up with a 44/32 day yesterday.
 

Looks pretty suspect.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I feel like once the wind switches to southerly there they will start putting up some really absurd warm numbers. Usually they are one of the last stations to give up the chilly offshore flow during the cold season, but once the switch to southerlies finally happens they become one of the torchiest spots on the west side.

They might, but they missed out on torching the past two days, and 850mb temps go below 0C by tomorrow afternoon. 

[ShawniganLake]

17 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Do you think there will be any westerly surge down the strait? 

Looks like it later tomorrow. Not a severe one unless the low pressure moves in a bit more north. Maybe 45-55mph gusts.