PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty much zilch since 1996.  The last half January is when some of our very best events happen.

It's kind of ridiculous that the coldest high at PDX this century is in February and SEA's is in November. I guess not as much for SEA if that December 2021 reading was innacurate

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty much zilch since 1996.  The last half January is when some of our very best events happen.

I think west coast troughing is going to be the default from the end of January until mid April. Then our annual summer torch will begin. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GEFS extended looks to have moved up the timing for going into a minus PNA to around Jan 20.

 By the end of the run the anomaly centers are right over the PNW. I still think this winter could be special. I think the late January through early March period has huge potential in the lowlands. Looking at the CFS extended, the pnw has the greatest anomalies of anywhere on earth in February and March. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think west coast troughing is going to be the default from the end of January until mid April. Then our annual summer torch will begin. 

The only thing that makes me question a hot summer at all is the fact CA has seemingly broken their drought this winter.  Maybe something has shifted, but I would still go hot for summer.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 By the end of the run the anomaly centers are right over the PNW. I still think this winter could be special. I think the late January through early March period has huge potential in the lowlands. Looking at the CFS extended, the pnw has the greatest anomalies of anywhere on earth in February and March. 

It could get fun!

The weeklies had a pretty similar idea today as well.

[CasuallyFoxy]

Looks like Astoria and Garibaldi gusting to 70 now.  Pretty quick onset of winds in Astoria, 9mph to 70mph in 20 minutes as the wind turned southerly.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It could get fun!

The weeklies had a pretty similar idea today as well.

With changing wavelengths it’s the perfect timing for big time snow up here too, so I’m pretty eager. 

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

Double lows on top of each other. 

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, CasuallyFoxy said:

Looks like Astoria and Garibaldi gusting to 70 now.  Pretty quick onset of winds in Astoria, 9mph to 70mph in 20 minutes as the wind turned southerly.

Astoria gusting to 70 is quite impressive, actually 

[Tor]

49 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm pretty surprised there isn't more excitement from the NW OR folks right now.

Just more anxiety when your home is surrounded by 40-60'+ trees on saturated soil. Ugh.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, Doinko said:

It's kind of ridiculous that the coldest high at PDX this century is in February and SEA's is in November.

You're right about SEA.  They had a high of 25 in Nov 2010 and this last cold snap ended up with a high of 26.  IMBY this one came in colder with 21 vs 26 in Nov 2010.  Easterly vs Fraser River blast is the difference.

[Meatyorologist]

Eastern OR is about to get its harshest and longest lasting windstorm in recent memory.

[BLI snowman]

Making a run at 2" here now on the day. Another super wet day following a lengthy dry stretch. Been as Jekyll/Hyde of a year for precip as I can ever remember.

Edited December 27, 2022 by BLI snowman

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Astoria gusting to 70 is quite impressive, actually 

I'll say.

[Requiem]

55 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm pretty surprised there isn't more excitement from the NW OR folks right now.

Definitely some anticipation, but there's a reason I'm such a fan of big-league easterly windstorms-- they don't cause as many power issues as the southerly ones.

[Meatyorologist]

Bring it on.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Making a run at 2" here now on the day. Another super wet day following a length dry stretch. Been as Jekyll/Hyde of a year for precip as I can ever remember.

And temperatures too. It's been absolutely crazy!

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You're right about SEA.  They had a high of 25 in Nov 2010 and this last cold snap ended up with a high of 26.  IMBY this one came in colder with 21 vs 26 in Nov 2010.  Easterly vs Fraser River blast is the difference.

A high of 25 is really impressive and especially in November! PDX had a 30/18 day with no gorge component which is also pretty amazing. Same with your high of 21 this event.

 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Eastern OR is about to get its harshest and longest lasting windstorm in recent memory.

I'm glad this thing is south.

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

Power outages in the entire state of OR went from 2,200 to 6,800 now. Clatsop county showing 3,800 in the dark. I wouldn't be surprised to see 100,000+ at peak out of power state wide if this ramps as hard as it looks like it will do. 

[Deweydog]

I’m getting the feeling Jim isn’t into windstorms.

[CasuallyFoxy]

2 minutes ago, Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone said:

Power outages in the entire state of OR went from 2,200 to 6,800 now. Clatsop county showing 3,800 in the dark. I wouldn't be surprised to see 100,000+ at peak out of power state wide if this ramps as hard as it looks like it will do. 

My cabin camera in Cannon Beach just went out :c Trees were going pretty crazy, then it shut off at ~9:10.

[Eujunga]

As has so often been the case this season, the rain has stayed focused to the north. Just 0.25" on the day here so far.

Winds are pretty robust, though. Peak gust of 34 mph on my wireless Davis, which usually means 40+ mph actual.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Getting some pretty solid gusts.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’m getting the feeling Jim isn’t into windstorms.

For the first time since 2016/17 I am quite jealous of your location and south into Oregon. 

[icyasf]

Getting windy in Corvallis, and the power briefly just went out.

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

K Falls was gusting to 58 on the 7p obs. 

Getting pretty windy in Sunriver!

I may spend some time in Bend tomorrow. They seem to be forecasting higher wind than here. We’ll see.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

For the first time since 2016/17 I am quite jealous of your location and south into Oregon. 

I'll happily trade you this storm in exchange for the weather you've had so far this winter.

[Timmy]

Crazy windy here at rockaway, power has been off and on a couple times already.

[Requiem]

Southerly wind gusts 50-55 (which is a realistic possibility from this system) would definitely cause some issues whatnot with waterlogged soil, the fact that the past few years have been dead as far as southerlies go, and the possible duration of gusty winds. I wouldn't be shocked to see an airport location clock a 60+ gust somewhere. Probably Aurora!

[Omegaraptor]

Gusts starting up big time in Sunriver. These are definitely over 40 MPH

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Southerly wind gusts 50-55 (which is a realistic possibility from this system) would definitely cause some issues whatnot with waterlogged soil, the fact that the past few years have been dead as far as southerlies go, and the possible duration of gusty winds. I wouldn't be shocked to see an airport location clock a 60+ gust somewhere. Probably Aurora!

This being a bent back occlusion-related event means these winds are going to be more westerly than southerly. That means even more potential damage due to the unusual direction.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I'll happily trade you this storm in exchange for the weather you've had so far this winter.

Hmmm…I will trade you all of our weather from mid November through mid December. I cannot give up our big west windstorm the beginning of November and the big cold and snow from last week. You can have all of the smaller windstorms and snowstorms in between in exchange for your incoming windstorm however !

[NWbyNW]

Look at this Pacific cyclone beast aimed right at the PNW!!! It is so tight and well formed!  

[TacomaWx]

58/47 0.98” here so far today…pretty wet when I left for work this morning the wind and heavy rain was whipping through Tacoma. 
 

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Hmmm…I will trade you all of our weather from mid November through mid December. I cannot give up our big west windstorm the beginning of November and the big cold and snow from last week. You can have all of the smaller windstorms and snowstorms in between in exchange for your incoming windstorm however !

Got yourself a deal! The GMs are just smoothing over some of the details and then they'll send over the official paperwork in the morning. 

[NWbyNW]

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

This being a bent back occlusion-related event means these winds are going to be more westerly than southerly. That means even more potential damage due to the unusual direction.

I recall (because I'm a huge nerd regarding windstorms ) a system back in December 2015 with a big westerly surge as it passed just north of PDX-- a much weaker system than this with less optimal gradients. The westerly surge did a number on Kelso and Longview, areas usually well insulated against strong southerly windstorms. Should be interesting to see, at the very least.

[TacomaWx]

We should get over 1” of rainfall on the day here soon. Haven’t had any 1”+ daily totals so far this fall/winter which is fairly unusual. Up to 5.38” MTD. 

[Omegaraptor]

I’m somehow in the white.

Apparently it’ll be windy in Bend, Crescent, Chemult but magically miss Sunriver and La Pine. Ok NWS

[seattleweatherguy]

Bothell still has no warning though last night we didn’t and it was howling 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I recall (because I'm a huge nerd regarding windstorms ) a system back in December 2015 with a big westerly surge as it passed just north of PDX-- a much weaker system than this with less optimal gradients. The westerly surge did a number on Kelso and Longview, areas usually well insulated against strong southerly windstorms. Should be interesting to see, at the very least.

I sure hope not. I’m fairly protected from

south winds, not as much westerly. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is a massive storm. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I’m somehow in the white.

Apparently it’ll be windy in Bend, Crescent, Chemult but magically miss Sunriver and La Pine. Ok NWS

Not familiar with the terrain, but is it possible it's due to a mountain wave pattern that wouldn't have the right wavelength to hit those locations?

[NWbyNW]

This wind storm is going to be very impressive to watch.  But at the same time, Eastern Washington and a bit of Eastern Oregon is going to have snow dumped on them as well.  The past 24hr accumulations will be pretty impressive through the region. 

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Not familiar with the terrain, but is it possible it's due to a mountain wave pattern that wouldn't have the right wavelength to hit those locations?

It’s getting pretty windy here in Sunriver, but it possibly won’t be as severe here as in Bend and Redmond.

It’s just a quirk with Deschutes County being in NWS Pendleton and Klamath County being NWS Medford. They handle warning regions differently, but northern Klamath and southern Deschutes counties have basically identical geography and climate.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice to see the winter weather advisory in the Oregon cascades. Looks like 8-16” expected above 4000’.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

McMinnville already gusting to 43. Astoria gusting to 60 on the hour, John Day in eastern Oregon gusting to 56mph. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[MillCreekMike]

Michael Snyder calling out the lack of communication from NWS Seattle, which is fair.