November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Phil]

The new Euro weeklies apparantly look relatively warm all the way into mid December. No real arctic air anywhere in North America, Brett Anderson said "Despite some high latitude blocking, it appears that a strong, west to east flow of Pacific air will dominate across the western two-thirds of North America into December."

 

​Strong, west to east flow would seem to be relatively normal temps, especially during the day, with warmer nights due to clouds. So maybe that is good for the mountains.

Before I get into it, know that it's temporary and is actually a positive sign if you're rooting for mid-winter wavebreaking over the NPAC/high latitudes (which you guys are).

 

Anyway, yes, it's warmer thanks to the jet extension/+PNA driven by the upcoming +MT out of Eurasia, following the poleward propagating -AAM belt. This destructively interferes with the ongoing -NAO, and will probably bring the NAM (AO) into a neutral or positive state during the first half of December.

 

While this will look like a super-niño pattern, it will increase the poleward-vertical wave activity fluxes, which will start attacking the stratospheric PV/NAM in early December, while the -QBO is also depositing easterly momentum. So this will force a wave-1 response of the stratPV just before the +AAM gets dispersed equatorward.

 

This will further reinforce the deep convection in the tropics as the Pacific tropical tropopause cools/raises/dehydrates in response to the wave-1, which should introduce an MJO component into the Indo domain, which will tank the PNA and throw a surf zone into the NATL/Scandi domain toward New Years, opening the door for the complete destruction of the PV in January, timed perfectly with the tropical forcing/PNA block to deliver an Arctic blast into the western US in January.

[Geos]

Now is the time to torch. Don’t want warm weather over Christmas ugh

 

Yeah best to get it over with now before Christmas. 

 

Hard to imagine with high latitude blocking that Arctic air won't try to make a run south at some point.

[Phil]

Ok, I should stop typing right now because I am not explaining things well enough. Yes, I didn't mean that there are lines of code stating PNA or PDO or whatever, but I was just trying to state that a model wouldn't be any less accurate because of an elapsed time between observed patterns, and it would maybe only be handled better because of the physics engine being improved over time.

Ah, I see what you're saying. Yeah, computer models don't suddenly "forget" how to model a -NAO or -PNA.

[Phil]

This is sort of what I figured. And yeah the -NAO is probably the result of the pattern rather than the cause, although it is likely chicken vs egg to some degree.

 

I’ve definitely noticed the increased number of waves on the models. The Pacific is just a total mess of anomalously strong high pressure areas and cutoffs right now. Really breaking up the jet.

Definitely, and the high wavenumber/dis-jointed NPAC is what the ECMWF struggles with.

 

However, if you think this is bad, just wait until the jet extension in early December starts feeding back on the tropical convection through the stratosphere/wave-1 attack. That's when the ECMWF will shine and the GFS will implode.

[Timmy Supercell]

Really curious now if this could be a third winter in a row where I can get close to double my normal snowfall. It would be quite the stretch on paper! 

[HighlandExperience]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Right around Christmas we will see something big.  Month-long stretch of temps not rising above freezing sounds good.

[FroYoBro]

Right around Christmas we will see something big.  Month-long stretch of temps not rising above freezing sounds good.

 

I just added this to my calendar. Thanks. 

[Timmy]

Right around Christmas we will see something big. Month-long stretch of temps not rising above freezing sounds good.

But it was winter cancel yesterday!?!?

[Front Ranger]

[Front Ranger]

But it was winter cancel yesterday!?!?

Like the Euro weeklies, he's in flux.

 

Coincidence??

[Timmy]

 

Pretty cool video of a meteor burning up over the arctic.

 

 

Tell the idiot to turn the camera to the right next time.

[Guest El nina]

60 Wednesday?

[TT-SEA]

Turbulent sky against the remaining fall color on 405 northbound this afternoon south of Bellevue... but did not hit any rain.

 

[Deweydog]

60 Wednesday?

You didn't get the memo? Torch has been CANCELLED.

[TT-SEA]

60 Wednesday?

 

12Z ECMWF does show widespread low 60s on Wednesday from SEA to EUG.

[Guest El nina]

You didn't get the memo? Torch has been CANCELLED.

I thought it had been extended to last through February?

[Gradient Keeper]

Fall cancel ?

 

00z GFS in 4 hours!

[crf450ish]

As I was saying the CFS has had some pretty crazy runs the past few days.  Here is the latest for January.

In all honesty, I'll take bone chilling cold over snow if I have to choose. I want both though, I'm greedy. 

[Jesse]

You didn't get the memo? Torch has been CANCELLED.

Don’t think anyone said that. All the conversations I saw were just talking about it being shortened.

[DareDuck]

Bachelor opens tomorrow, I went up today to drop off my gear and pick up my pass. There are going to be A LOT of people there tomorrow. Heard it could be up to 5,000 people on 3 chairs, 1 is a beginner chair.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Bachelor opens tomorrow, I went up today to drop off my gear and pick up my pass. There are going to be A LOT of people there tomorrow. Heard it could be up to 5,000 people on 3 chairs, 1 is a beginner chair.

 

Sounds horrible.

[Jesse]

Sounds horrible.

Our region is being overwhelmed by a flood of yuppies.

[MossMan]

Sounds horrible.

Yeah, no thanks.

[HighlandExperience]

Our region is being overwhelmed by a flood of yuppies.

Probably all from issaquah and north bend

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Our region is being overwhelmed by a flood of yuppies.

 

Most net in migration since the early 90s!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS is very cold for the first and last week of December!

[The Swamp]

If December and January aren't cold or snowy some folks on here are going to lose their .

 

I give it a 30-40% chance of being lost.

[MossMan]

If December and January aren't cold or snowy some folks on here are going to lose their s**t.

 

I give it a 30-40% chance of s**t being lost.

We can always count on March though!

[The Swamp]

We can always count on March though!

 

Here here!  Lumpy rain.

 

I think the blocking is going to be too D**n far west and it won't help us.  Just a feeling.  About as accurate as some of the posts I read here that rely on too much emotion.

[ShawniganLake]

CFS is very cold for the first and last week of December!

So mid month will probably be cold then.

[Jbolin]

If December and January aren't cold or snowy some folks on here are going to lose their s**t.

 

I give it a 30-40% chance of s**t being lost.

Said everyone on this forum going back to '09

[crf450ish]

If December and January aren't cold or snowy some folks on here are going to lose their s**t.

 

I give it a 30-40% chance of s**t being lost.

I’m sure there’s some folks on here that we’re kids the last time the pnw experienced consecutive epic winters. Given the recent turndown in solar activity, and yes, that only, I’m sure we’re going back to a climate regime where we see good hits several times a winter. So some folks might end up gaining some s*it, instead of loosing it.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Wow! If this verifies then that is quite a widespread cold outbreak for a huge swath of the country! Beastly

 

It sure would be nice to have something like that on the west side of the good oL’USA

 

[Gradient Keeper]

The next 10 days(or longer) are going to be brutal for weenies.

[MossMan]

The next 10 days(or longer) are going to be brutal for weenies.

Putting up the Christmas lights tomorrow, that should turn the models arctic.

[HighlandExperience]

The next 10 days(or longer) are going to be brutal for weenies.

Save the fun for the heart of winter

[luvssnow_spokane]

The next 10 days(or longer) are going to be brutal for weenies.

Two words “white Christmas”. It’s going to happen in my backyard. Now how is that for optimism?!

[Gradient Keeper]

Putting up the Christmas lights tomorrow, that should turn the models arctic.

Likewise. Probably starting around 10 AM meaning arctic front will arrive in December or January(Both months?) around 1-4 PM. Book it.

[Phil]

The next 10 days(or longer) are going to be brutal for weenies.

More like the next 4 weeks.