PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My daughter is a couple years ahead of your oldest.   In some ways it become a little easier because she is much more self sufficient now but the emotional swings are getting crazy! 

Definitely easier in that way for with our oldest as well…But yeah…Wow! 
Though we have friends that have a 4yr old son…WOW he would wear me down in about 3 minutes…Talk about busy, into everything, is not content with anything, clingy, destructive…I’m not quite sure how to fully describe this kid other than I’m glad he is not ours haha! 

[Cold Snap]

25 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

54/46 day here. Torchiest day of the month so far. Hopefully just a few more days until we start to go into a more reasonable pattern temp wise for mid-January.

It seems like the Portland area has been torching less than the Seattle area in this pattern. My warmest day is 57/46 and I’ve had four 55+ highs this month. Looks like I may reach or even break that 57 on Saturday. I’ll be in Leavenworth during that time though.

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So young.  

So many high profile people passing away before their time over the last few months it seem like. 

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

My fiancee has 2 girls that live with us, they are now 17 and 14. If anyone has pointers and raising teen age girls please pm me!  I only had my one boy and it was easy. These girls are nuts!!! The drama DRAMA.  They cry over anything. Last night the oldest started to cry when I asked what she was looking for in the fridge. She had been from her room to the fridge 3 times so I was just asking lol. And then when it is that time, you know. 3 women in the house I'm surrounded!!

Was she looking for leftover pot pie?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Definitely easier in that way for with our oldest as well…But yeah…Wow! 
Though we have friends that have a 4yr old son…WOW he would wear me down in about 3 minutes…Talk about busy, into everything, is not content with anything, clingy, destructive…I’m not quite sure how to fully describe this kid other than I’m glad he is not ours haha! 

Yeah you are not kidding. I had 4 daughters and then our son was born last February. He is so active and into everything and not even 11 months yet. Plus he always wants me to be interacting with him. Which is great, but when working from home it can be challenging, lol. The good thing though is the girls love him so much and love playing with him and keeping him busy. 

[RentonHill]

22 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Definitely easier in that way for with our oldest as well…But yeah…Wow! 
Though we have friends that have a 4yr old son…WOW he would wear me down in about 3 minutes…Talk about busy, into everything, is not content with anything, clingy, destructive…I’m not quite sure how to fully describe this kid other than I’m glad he is not ours haha! 

 Can confirm. Am dead inside

[TT-SEA]

Just got this phone news alert... please prepare accordingly.   

[Chewbacca Defense]

11 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

We are at 8.03 inches of rain since the 1st. Really getting soaked over here.

I am at 0.84" and that's after 0.21" today.....crazy difference.

[Darrington Troll]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

My fiancee has 2 girls that live with us, they are now 17 and 14. If anyone has pointers and raising teen age girls please pm me!  I only had my one boy and it was easy. These girls are nuts!!! The drama DRAMA.  They cry over anything. Last night the oldest started to cry when I asked what she was looking for in the fridge. She had been from her room to the fridge 3 times so I was just asking lol. And then when it is that time, you know. 3 women in the house I'm surrounded!!

Deck out a solid man cave and get an app to track the monthly doom sessions.

[SouthHillFrosty]

@Phil what is this model? I never heard of it before.

 

Edited January 13, 2023 by SouthHillFrosty

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

21 minutes ago, Darrington Troll said:

Deck out a solid man cave and get an app to track the monthly doom sessions.

It's funny, when they all 3 start hitting the chocolate I know it's dooms day!!

[MossMan]

33 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I am at 0.84" and that's after 0.21" today.....crazy difference.

And I am only at .10” on the day! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think we’ve had rain on 11 of 12 days now, but still well below average. 

[snow_wizard]

4 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

If February is as snowy as December was IMBY, I will probably give this winter an A based on total snowfall alone.

Up there I would totally agree.  That run in December was pretty epic up there.

Down here I would say B+ for Nov and Dec, and a big fat F so far this month.  This month could still redeem itself to some extent though.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

And I am only at .10” on the day! 

This "AR" has kind of fizzled so far.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty interesting to see the ECMWF weeklies showed the best stuff centered on Feb 1 with some action later this month.

[snow_wizard]

30 day SOI is +21 with the MJO about to enter the Indian Ocean.  Really iffy what ENSO is going to do over the next few months.  There is the fact that a continuation of La Nina would be unprecedented at this point, but records are made to be broken.

[snow_wizard]

0z GFS gets pretty chilly well before the end of the run.  Can't wait to get back into below normal temps.

[Phishy Wx]

42 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

@Phil what is this model? I never heard of it before.

 

SREF?  its on Pivotal.

 

NCEP short range ensemble model.  

[MossMan]

Maine is apparently having a rough season, people there on the FB tractor forum I am a member of are getting downright angry that they don’t have any snow to plow or blow! One person commented that they are going to mow this weekend! 

Edited January 13, 2023 by MossMan

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Raining and 32 up at the property, trying to remember when but I honestly can't remember if I've seen it rain up there in January. The locals laugh about how little it rains there because once the wet season hits it just snows. Rain at 3800 ft up there in December and January is very rare.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

50-burger achieved! It is now warmer than it was at any point during daylight hours. 50.4˚F.

[MossMan]

53/46 on the day. Currently 52. 

Edited January 13, 2023 by MossMan

[Slushy Inch]

Improvement.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty serious run to run change for an ensemble.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

53/46 on the day. Currently 52. 

Only two days before the cooling begins!

[snow_wizard]

52 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Raining and 32 up at the property, trying to remember when but I honestly can't remember if I've seen it rain up there in January. The locals laugh about how little it rains there because once the wet season hits it just snows. Rain at 3800 ft up there in December and January is very rare.

Indeed.  I've commented a few times about how Winthrop has some of the highest annul snow to water equivalent ratios anywhere in the country.

[Slushy Inch]

This looks like it could be a persistent pattern, no trough anywhere near a position to mess up ridge, there is a slight risk that an over-retrograde occurs.  Also check out the ridge bridge from Alaska through the north pole.

[Slushy Inch]

[Slushy Inch]

Truly a huge improvement.

[snow_wizard]

This GEFS run shows 850s going below normal on the 15th and remaining there until the end of the month.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

This GEFS run shows 850s going below normal on the 15th and remaining there until the end of the month.

January saved?

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

This looks like it could be a persistent pattern, no trough anywhere near a position to mess up ridge, there is a slight risk that than over-retrograde occurs.  Also check out the ridge bridge from Alaska through the north pole.

NW Pacific trough is very nice as well.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

January saved?

Might at least get brought up to a C grade.  Remains to be seen of course.

[Slushy Inch]

Can't wait to see the meteogram for this GEFS run. Excitement will really increase if EPS shifts this way as well.

[Slushy Inch]

GEFS matches EURO weeklies, just a little ahead on cold.

[SouthHillFrosty]

We need some of that vodka cold to build up in Northern Canada. 

[snow_wizard]

I will say to have the last half of January end up below normal would be pretty big news this century.  We've had some decent first halfs, but second half has been a huge struggle.

[snow_wizard]

Something is definitely up.  Much sharper trough on this GEFS run.

[MossMan]

It’s coming.