PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[WeatherGeek2022]

5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

seems better to me thru 222 on wxbell. More stable and reloading as we get further out. Not sure whats going on off the coast but maybe thats just continuous run of astoria lows coming in its showing

trying to crawl its way over here

[Deweydog]

27 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

i wonder how many previously active users have died. I'm always suspicious when i see prolific posters in old threads and go to their profile and its been years since they logged in. 

I remember one guy faked his death and one point. And I think at one point Phil said he’d legally died but was brought back via a roadside tracheotomy or something like that.

[Deweydog]

31 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

only if you livestream it

Im envisioning something like this, including the flying baby and young Tim wearing the A-Rod jersey.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I will always say that month left a lot on the table. 

Snow falling on as many days as it did in Dec 2008 was impressive for the PDX metro, what the arctic air did or didn't do was a smaller point at the time. 

I'm sure that December made a lot of winters after it feel dull. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Grabbed the electric bike and went up to gold mountain behind my house. Still a few inches up here. Still have some snow at home also.

 

[Cold Snap]

850s are slightly improved on the 18z GEFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only hit 40 today. Not bad. 

[TT-SEA]

22 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Im envisioning something like this, including the flying baby and young Tim wearing the A-Rod jersey.

 

That poor little boy... heartbreaking.

And did those people know what a beautiful spring lay ahead?  

[Front Ranger]

29 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I remember one guy faked his death and one point. And I think at one point Phil said he’d legally died but was brought back via a roadside tracheotomy or something like that.

Yeah, that was during the December 2008 madness, too I believe. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Only hit 40 today. Not bad. 

PDX kept their streak alive to.

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That poor little boy... heartbreaking.

And did those people know what a beautiful spring lay ahead?  

And summer!

Pretty they were reacting to the Euro weeklies.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

PDX kept their streak alive to.

That was close. Burns hit 33 today, if they were Winthrop they would have been in the 20s. 

[MossMan]

Looks like I will be topping out at 39 degrees like yesterday. Currently 38.4

.10” on the day, 3.30” for 2023. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That was close. Burns hit 33 today, if they were Winthrop they would have been in the 20s. 

The WV put up some decent numbers today. 45/31 at SLE. 47/29 at EUG.

46/37 here. Hoping for some clearing tonight.

[TT-SEA]

Hope we have better luck than that Dallas kicker!   He is cursed right now.

[MossMan]

The crappy phone apps will get the masses stirring now! 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The crappy phone apps will get the masses stirring now! 

The lack of a snow icon will probably keep it quiet for the time being.  

[WeatherGeek2022]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The crappy phone apps will get the masses stirring now! 

those D**n apps know more than the weather models do with the exception of the euro 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

those D**n apps know more than the weather models do with the exception of the euro 

No…not at all. Phone weather apps are the absolute worst especially past 24 hours. They can be semi accurate the day of forecasting but even then…

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

No…not at all. Phone weather apps are the absolute worst especially past 24 hours. They can be semi accurate the day of forecasting but even then…

The forecast on Randy's phone actually looks pretty accurate based on what the models are showing now.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The forecast on Randy's phone actually looks pretty accurate based on what the models are showing now.

If that forecast is accurate Randy’s gonna meltdown February 2014 style

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

If that forecast is accurate Randy’s gonna meltdown February 2014 style

Well that is basically what the 12Z ECMWF showed.   My phone forecast seems to most closely follow the ECMWF.   I don't expect my phone to be more accurate that the ECMWF.  Obviously it could all change but there would be no way for the weather app to know that before the models do.  

[Chewbacca Defense]

6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF is cold but completely screws western WA for snow... it rains on Friday and Saturday and then dries out as the cold air moves in.  

 

That sounds about right!

[SnowWillarrive]

26 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The crappy phone apps will get the masses stirring now! 

Honestly that looks depressing. Cold rain straight to sunshine

[Phishy Wx]

everything coming together nicely

 

everything still on track

[TT-SEA]

Noticeably bright outside well after 5 p.m... today was 2 minutes and 24 seconds longer than yesterday.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we avoided the 50F-burger. Only 49F today. 49/34 spread.

[RentonHill]

This thing starts in 5 days

[snow_wizard]

It cleared out just like magic when the sun went down.  Another frosty night in store.

[snow_wizard]

42 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

If that forecast is accurate Randy’s gonna meltdown February 2014 style

I'm glad I like dry cold.  I still think there could be snow though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Chilly evening in progress 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm glad I like dry cold.  I still think there could be snow though.

Way too early to be worried either way. The last 2 events in the lead up overall it looked like we may get skunked entirely but it ended up working out just fine for most people in western WA. Dry cold snaps happen from time to time but the majority of cold snaps it finds a way to snow. I’m good with it either way we’ve already hit average snowfall this winter. 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty cool seeing analogs from both January 1954 and 1957 on the CPC site.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Eujunga said:

Sunset photo time!

Gorgeous!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Way too early to be worried either way. The last 2 events in the lead up overall it looked like we may get skunked entirely but it ended up working out just fine for most people in western WA. Dry cold snaps happen from time to time but the majority of cold snaps it finds a way to snow. I’m good with it either way we’ve already hit average snowfall this winter. 

You are right about that.  I'll never forget the model bust in Nov 2010.  They all showed no snow for the Seattle area with that just 24 hours in advance.  Epic bust.

[TT-SEA]

18Z EPS was slightly west at the end of the run (144 hours).    My guess is that the 00Z runs will be very good for cold and snow.

[snow_wizard]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say SEA will see at least one day with a 35/25 or lower with the cold snap.  It seems like most of these have been working out, at least to some extent, the last couple of years.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z EPS was slight west at the end of the run (144 hours).    My guess is that the 00Z runs will be very good for cold and snow.

Can't believe I forgot to check that!  No doubt the block looks a bit healthier and better placed.

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say SEA will see at least one day with a 35/25 or lower with the cold snap.  It seems like most of these have been working out, at least to some extent, the last couple of years.

The first sub 40 high this winter was actually a high of 25 at PDX (on 12/22). That was pretty interesting. Then a high of 29 and 35 the next few days. No other sub-40 highs though

[MWG]

9 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Sunset photo time!

Beautiful! Same down here