Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
GEM looks pretty similar to ECMWF on Monday and still builds in a pretty big ridge because the trailing system comes south into Alaska so strongly that the lead system can't dig down into the PNW.
Appears to be an all or nothing situation... compromise doesn't seem to be on the table. Forecast is going to change dramatically when GFS and GEM finally cave.
I don’t know that the GFS and GEFS add any value to the forecast for next week, in fact they may be making the forecast worse by inflating the odds of a ridge when the superior EPS has already dropped the ridge odds down to 20% or less.
I’m not as confident as you w/rt the downstream/PNW ridge, but agree the GFS solution near/south of the Aleutians is BS. That’s a classic GFS failure mode (phasing/deepening ULLs).
The operational CMC shows how a big western ridge could legitimately happen. Very different than the GFS over the NPAC.
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